Football Hayes & Cannon

Statistical Projection: Ohio State vs. Michigan State

Binjimen Victor Ohio State Football Buckeyes

Recap: Ohio State at Nebraska

Holy moly, Ohio State! Though my offensive statistical projections for the Buckeyes were pretty close last week, I wasn’t ready for the defense to continue crushing souls quite like they did. I hadn’t been impressed with the Huskers’ defense, so I figured that a Ryan Day offense would cut through it like butter. But the Silver Bullets truly turned heads last weekend.

With regards to projection specifics, I was right on with Justin Fields’ completion percentage, though he didn’t need to toss the ball as much as I thought he would. For that reason, he also didn’t hit the passing yardage I’d proposed. He threw for three TDs and rushed for another, as projected. He somehow avoided his first INT (still!), which is remarkable.

For the running backs, I had J.K. Dobbins pegged for 24 carries and 164 yards. Amazingly, he complied with the carry total exactly, but managed an additional 13 yards. Master Teague III stole the rushing TDs and reception that I’d given to Dobbins. As for the third-string carries, Marcus Crowley managed to get those instead of Demario McCall.

Receiving predictions? We can skip those. I got Austin Mack’s receptions right, along with K.J. Hill’s touchdown catch. Aside from that, I had a forgettable stretch of guesses in that category.

Blake Haubeil knocked in all six extra points, as noted, but added a second field goal to my projected total. As for Drue Chrisman, I had him punting four times and he only had to put one ball into the air. Always a good thing, so no complaints there, despite being pretty wrong.

Ohio State football Josh Alabi JK Dobbins Nebraska

October 5 – Ohio State vs. Michigan State

Quarterback Projections

Ah, heck. Why even temper expectations at this point? Go get em, Justin. The new QB has more TD passes this year than Northwestern, Rutgers and Michigan’s offenses combined, and I still don’t think we’ve seen what he’s entirely capable of.

I think Ryan Day cuts Fields loose a bit in this night game showdown and lets him throw about ten more passes than usual. Fields will set season highs in attempts, completions, and passing yards on Saturday night in Columbus. He throws another three TD passes, again failing to record an INT, and rushes for another score, because that’s his thing.

Chris Chugunov gets into the game in the fourth quarter, completes a couple of tosses, and closes out another dominant OSU victory.

Running Back Projections

The Buckeye run game continues to thrive, even against a tough Spartan front. Dobbins and company don’t get quite as much work as usual, since OSU puts the ball in the air a bit more. However, the O-line still commands the line of scrimmage and allows each of OSU’s three backs that touch the ball to average over four yards per carry.

J.K. Dobbins will score twice in this game before Master Teague III and Marcus Crowley jump in to relieve the veteran ball carrier. J.K. gets the only two RB receptions in the contest, moving the ball for another 17 yards and putting him over the century mark in yardage on the night.

Pass Catcher Projections

K.J. Hill is a back-breaker in this matchup with Sparty. Fields finds him frequently, as he racks up eight catches and 73 yards, consistently finding gaps in coverage. Jeremy Ruckert and Luke Farrell both snag catches (one of which goes for a TD), proving once more that our tight ends have not been forgotten.

Chris Olave makes a couple of big gains, including one for 20+ and six points. Mack and Wilson move the chains throughout the game, but it’s Binjimen Victor making the most dramatic splash. Victor breaks loose deep down the sideline early in the game and hauls in a huge TD catch.

Specialist Projections

Blake Haubeil, just like last week, connects on each of his six PATs and also knocks in another field goal and Drue Chrisman is only needed thrice.

The Buckeyes in black roll through the Spartans on Saturday night and cruise into their first bye week undefeated.

Final Score Prediction

Ohio State 45 – Michigan State 17

7 Responses

  1. Since the game wont be played on paper we’ll need to consult the magic eight ball for a more intuitive approach. 🙂 It told me to “try again later” which I will do. but in the meantime I don’t buy that either team scores that many points. I don’t see the Spartans scoring 17 nor will the Buckeyes score in the 40s.

  2. I agree that we will be passing more this game. I also think Victor is due for a big game. Day will try to get Dobbins a TD or two. He plays better when he is rewarded. I don’t think our defense gives up 17 points to Sparty. 42-10.

  3. Watching the Spartans, if we pick on their corners, it should be a good day. Trying to run inside, maybe not so good. Last week Lewerke was lights out, and probably more of challenge than Martinez was against Nebraska. Got to clean up the spying stuff. I don’t think Lewerke can win with his arm, but if we get caught in man to man he can run a long way. Might be good time to zone it up.

    I’m hoping g for about 42-10, just because I’ve undersold them every week and I’d like to overshoot for once.

  4. You see Sparty’s ‘Spartan’ offense scoring 17 when UNL’s much more prolific one scored only 7 at home when Sparty’s on the road? Methinks you’re under-selling the Buckeyes again, AJ.

    1. Full honesty, I think I’m under-selling them as well. My gut was 10 points, but I tossed in a garbage 7 for them.

  5. This is the week for Demario McCall. He’s been being used as a decoy with his motion to force the defense to expose their intent. By the end of the Nebraska game he was virtually ignored by the Husker defense. That WON’T be lost on the Spartan defense and they too will generally ignore him after the first couple of series so that they can try to contain Fields in the passing game. That’s when Fields turns to Demario and he rips the heart out of their chests.

    I believed Coach Day when he said that Demario was a big piece of this offense. It’s going to happen as the next evolution of opening up this offense.

    1. He will have minimal contribution and we will punish Sparty….nice try.

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