Football
BCS Report - Did it Work?
By Jeff AmeyWhat better way to end the 2007 regular season, full of upsets and unexpected twists and turns, than with another week of upsets and unexpected twists and turns. The final week of the regular season saw the #1 and #2 teams both lose in the same week for the third time this season. Once again, the National Championship race was thrown into complete disarray. When the smoke finally cleared, a new batch of BCS controversy reared its ugly head.
Going into this past week one side of the National Championship game virtually "locked" in. West Virginia was a 28 point favorite going into their game against Pittsburgh, but an injury to QB Pat White and an inexplicable lack of touches by HB Steve Slaton added to a severe case of nerves and the Mountaineers fell 13-9 to the Panthers in the Backyard Brawl. Their loss opened the door for chaos to reign in the BCS, and when Oklahoma completed the sweep of numbers one and two in the Big XII Championship game with their 38-17 win, the debate began in full.
Ohio State and LSU were the new numbers one and two in the BCS and will face each other in the National Championship game. Ohio State's appearance was not unexpected since they were #3 in the previous week's BCS standings, but LSU making the Championship game was a bit of a surprise. The Tigers were ranked #7 the previous week and had to jump Virginia Tech, Kansas, and Georgia to get to the number two spot to face the Buckeyes.
So the questions now are: Did the BCS work? If not, what's wrong with it?
I can't help but feel disappointed in it and the power media outlets such as ESPN had in influencing it. I also can't help but feel that the BCS experiment is ultimately a failure. The influence the human polls have had in the final outcome of the BCS the past two seasons has made it clear that the unbiased approach to select the top two teams (the original intent of the BCS) has been abandoned for a system that is barely, if at all, better or different than the system of selecting a national champion before the BCS started.
For the second straight season, the winner of the SEC Championship game jumped over everyone in front of them to take over the #2 spot in the BCS (Last season it was Florida jumping Michigan) despite several teams ahead of them either not playing or actually winning. The human voters can basically sit down with their last poll and decide who goes to the Championship game. Barring an extremely close vote between number two and three in the human polls, the computers and their "unbiased" approach have been rendered nearly meaningless.
The past two seasons, the number two (or one) team in the last pre-bowl poll according to the AP had to jump over teams that either won or didn't play to get there. I decided to go back and see how many times that had happened in the history of the poll before the 2006 season. I eliminated the years before the final poll was taken before the bowl games, as they aren't relevant to the discussion. I also focused especially on the BCS era (1998-present). We used AP because they have the most data available.
In the years 1968 (the first year they regularly started the final vote after the bowls) to 1997, there were only three instances where the number two (or one) team going into the bowl games had jumped over teams that had won or didn't play in the previous week. In 1977, Oklahoma jumped over Alabama for the #2 spot (from #3) despite both teams having played and won the previous week.
In 1979, Ohio State jumped up to #1 from #3 over USC and Alabama despite having not played and Alabama having played and won (USC also did not play).
In 1989, #4 Miami jumped to #2 over #3 Michigan after then #2 Alabama lost while neither of the other teams played that week. In the 30 years before the BCS, there were just three instances of teams being jumped for the number one or two spot in the last poll before the bowls.
How about after the BCS was implemented in 1998? From 1998 to 2005, before the current BCS model, there were NO instances of teams being jumped without a loss in the poll right before the bowls. In the two years since the change, it has become virtually the norm..
In most seasons, there has been a tendency to be almost too rigid in the polls. It wasn't easy for a team to jump another in the polls unless the teams above them lost. There were cases of teams being jumped, but it was not the norm. Normally, the polls are a little more fluid at the beginning of the season, but become less and less so as the season wears on and more information is known. That information makes it a lot easier to accurately rank teams so movement at the end of the season should be more difficult. That has been what makes the polls what they are since their inception.
These past two seasons, and the shift in the power in the BCS from the formula (NOT just the computers as most believe) to the human polls, have indicated a dangerous shift in how the polls are conducted as well. Instead of movement in the the final poll before the bowls being much tougher than at any other time in the season, it has become a very biased tool being used to place two teams in the National Championship game.
Last season, I thought the current BCS model was terrible. This season, I feel it is bordering on being criminal and bad for the game in general. What justification is there for LSU jumping from #7 to #2 in the BCS with only a 21-14 win over Tennessee in which they struggled and trailed for more than half of the game to add to their resume?
If you want to use LSU's 48-7 win over Virginia Tech to eliminate the Hokies from contention, I don't really have any problem with that. But a closer look at the rest of the Hokie's schedule shows they have only losses to LSU and Boston College (who they later beat). Their losses came to teams with a combined total of five losses, certainly better than any of the other top contenders. LSU's losses, on the other hand (and no matter how many overtimes it took) came to Kentucky and Arkansas, teams with nine losses between them.
If you want to use Tennessee's win over Georgia, and LSU's subsequent win over Tennessee to eliminate Georgia, again, I have no problem with that. But another closer look shows that Georgia has a win over Kentucky, who also managed a win over LSU. Using the "team X has a win over team Y, and team Z beat team X, so they must be better than team Y" thing works both ways. The fact of the mattter is, the human voters had Georgia over LSU in their polls last week, but now have LSU way ahead of the Bulldogs with only that 21-14 win by LSU to change perceptions. If you want a team to have to win their conference to be a part of the National Championship picture, I don't have a problem with that, but it needs to be made a rule instead of something that manifests itself in the polls in the final week. Instead, this final set of polls made the entire season's polls look like a joke.
Kansas was pretty much dismissed out of hand, despite being one of only two BCS schools to finish the regular season with only one loss. If you want to eliminate them because of their weak schedule, once again, I don't have any problem with that. What does bother me is why the Jayhawks were voted fourth in last week's coach's poll, and sixth in last week's Harris poll if they are suddenly eighth in both polls now. Keep in mind, this is with two of the teams ahead of them last week losing. It is another case of the polls looking ridiculous.
What about Oklahoma? Didn't they pass the same criteria as LSU, winning their conference while losing two games to unranked teams, one away and one at home? Their two losses are to teams with ten losses between them, one more than LSU. Is this what gets LSU the nod? What about the Sooners taking care of the number one team in the nation last week? That's better than anything LSU has done this season.
In the end, it came down to one thing. LSU plays in the SEC, which is percieved to be the toughest conference this side of the NFL's AFC. The media wanted the Tigers in the game, and so they got it by politicking and swaying so many minds that everyone now thinks that the Buckeyes are the ones that don't deserve to be in the Championship game, and now have no shot at beating the "mighty" Tigers.
The BCS has devolved into a broken down shell of what it started out as. It has become a joke, a horrible joke whose punchline is going to be that it will probably lead to enough dis-satisfaction to eventually force the presidents of the universities to adopt a playoff sooner or later. I don't know about you, but I find it sad to watch the sport I love because of its uniqueness slowly turn itself into a clone of all the rest of the sports out there.
BCS Matchups
Rose - January 1
Illinois (9-3) vs. USC (10-2)
With all of the automatic bids this season, there were only a few questions that needed to be answered when it came to at-large teams. It was almost certain Georgia would get in, so it was: Kansas or Missouri -and- Arizona State, Boston College, or Illinois. With the Rose Bowl the first to choose a replacement for Ohio State in the Rose Bowl, they went with tradition and selected the Fighting Illini. Their berth in the Rose Bowl caps an incredible turnaround for a program that has seen some pretty bleak days since their last BCS bowl berth in the 2001 season (Sugar Bowl).
Illinois faces a very stiff test in USC who won at least a share of their conference title for the sixth season in a row. Some are predicting a blowout, and that could happen, but I don't think it will. USC has suffered injuries to key players all season, and will probably be the closest to 10 percent they've been all season. This spells trouble for the Illinois defense, but Trojan QB John David Booty has been erratic at times and might actually even things out a bit for the Illini.
The key to the Illini having any chance in this game centers around QB Juice Williams. He has had a very good second half of the season and will have to keep that up both running the ball and distributing the ball to the many weapons Illinois has on the offensive side of the ball. If he has a good game, this will be a close contest, but I just can't see Illinois being consistant enough on offense or defense to beat the Trojans. USC wins by at least a touchdown.
Sugar - January 1
Hawaii (12-0) vs. Georgia (10-2)
This game is interesting because Hawaii hasn't really been tested this season. It should be interesting to see how they handle going against a better team from a BCS conference. Their only other game against a BCS opponent was against Washington, which they won 35-28, but only after overcoming a 21-0 first quarter deficit.
The Hawaii offense is good enough to put some points up on the board, but the more important issue will be whether or not their defense will be able to stop the Georgia offense. The Warriors had a lot of trouble stopping Washington in the first half, but played a lot more physically in the second half to shut down their offense. It will take a monumental effort to keep Georgia out of the end zone on a consistant basis. I don't think this one will end up being close. Georgia by at least three touchdowns.
Fiesta - January 2
West Virginia (10-2) vs. Oklahoma (11-2)
The biggest key to this game ending up even remotely interesting will be the mental state of West Virginia after losing what should have been a shoe-in game and a chance at the National Championship. Of secondary importance will be the health of Mountaineer QB Pat White. Assuming West Virginia is ready and White is healthy, this has the potential to be a pretty good game.
West Virginia boasts one of the more explosive offensives in the country, though they have been mysteriously absent at times this season against better defenses. They will have their hands full on both sides of the ball. The Sooners will probably have the best offense and defense the Mountaineers have faced all season. I don't think they'll be ready for the speed they'll be seeing on both sides of the ball, and will have to weather an early storm. If they survive this without a huge deficit on the scoreboard, they might have a chance in this one. I don't think they do. Sooners win this one big.
Orange - January 3
Kansas (11-1) vs. Virginia Tech (11-2)
Kansas was the most controversial of the BCS picks this season, and there is a bit of pressure on them to perform in this game to justify their choice over Missouri. Kansas is just slightly more tested than Hawaii when it comes to teams in BCS games this year, and it will be interesting to see how they handle going against one of the better defenses in the nation in Virginia Tech. My guess is they won't handle things very well.
Virginia Tech's offense has been a work in progress this season, but has slowly improved after a very shaky start into at least an average one. This has the potential to become the least-competitive of the BCS bowls, but the Jayhawks may surprise. They've beaten the bad teams on their schedule pretty badly, and may actually be better than their showing against Missouri. My guess is that it wasn't a fluke and Virginia Tech rolls.
National Championship Game
LSU (11-2) vs. Ohio State (11-1)
A month ago, this was the game everyone in the media was clamoring for. Now they have it, and it doesn't seem like anyone is happy about it. It truly is amazing the impression one game can leave in just about everyone's minds (last year's NC game), as the Buckeyes enter this game as an underdog, and are not expected by many outside of Ohio to even make this a game. It is starting to sound suspiciously like 2002 all over again. Nevermind that the Buckeyes lead the nation in total defense by over 30 yards per game. Don't bother remembering that the Buckeyes lead the nation in points given up per game at 10.67. Oh, and by the way, the Buckeyes have held seven of their twelve opponents to less than 10 points.
When you throw out the media biases, this is actually a much closer matchup on paper than it is made out to be. Advantage seems to lie with the LSU offense against the Ohio State offense, but is much more pronounced with the Ohio State defense against the LSU defense. The Tigers have been without DT Glenn Dorsey at 100 percent much of the second half of the season, and it will be interesting to see how well he has recovered by the time these two teams get it on in New Orleans. LSU will be helped by the game being played in Louisiana, but Buckeye fans always travel pretty well, so I don't think this will end up being a home game atmosphere for the Tigers as some fear.
In games where talent levels seem to be relatively equal, coaching seems to be the difference between teams winning and losing, and this is where I feel the Buckeyes have the biggest advantage. Les Miles has never been in this type of atmosphere in his entire coaching career. This will be Jim Tressel's third appearance in the FBS National Championship game, to go along with his four FCS National Championships and several more Championship game appearances.
This game seems pretty simple to break down. If the Buckeyes can run the ball, they probably. If LSU sells out to stop the run and the Buckeyes can hit big plays behind them, they probably win. If the Ohio State offense is ineffective, this is LSU's game to lose, which they are still capable of doing. Les Miles has made just enough bad decisions, and the Ohio State defense has been effective enough during this season to give me reason to believe the game would end up a defensive struggle in this case. Signs point to this being a low-scoring game, and turnovers will probably play the biggest role in who wins or loses.
Top 10 Pre-Bowls
1) Ohio State (11-1) Last: SEASON COMPLETE Next: vs. LSU (National Championship Game)
People that don't feel the Buckeyes deserve the top spot have obviously not put a lot of time into watching them this season. They are just as worthy as anyone else this year.
2) Georgia (10-2) Last: SEASON COMPLETE Next: vs. Hawaii (Sugar)
The regular voters might have turned into hypoctites in their last polls, but I'm sticking to my guns. Georgia was playing way better football down the stretch than LSU was.
3) Kansas (11-1) Last: SEASON COMPLETE Next: vs. Virginia Tech (Orange)
Eighth? Maybe they are only eighth best right now, but that's not what the voters thought last week.
4) Oklahoma (11-2) Last: beat Missouri 38-17 Next: vs. West Virginia (Fiesta)
If conference championship games are being used to judge how worthy a team is of moving up, the Sooners had the most impressive game of the three.
5) Virginia Tech (11-2) Last: beat Boston College 30-16 Next: vs. Kansas (Orange)
The Hokies have reeled off five straight wins since their earlier loss to Boston College, and have improved more from game one to game thirteen than any other team in the nation in my opinion.
6) LSU (11-2) Last: beat Tennessee 21-14 Next: vs. Ohio State (National Championship Game)
I seriously detest "body of work" arguments, and to be honest, I wasn't overly impressed with the Tiger's body of work. They could just as easy be 8-4 or 7-5 right now.
7) USC (10-2) Last: beat UCLA 24-7 Next: vs. Illinois (Rose)
LSU wins their conference, and suddenly the "USC is the best team" talk you heard last week is nowhere to be found.
8) West Virginia (10-2) Last: lost to Pittsburgh 9-13 Next: vs. Oklahoma (Fiesta)
West Virginia just wasn't ready to handle success yet. If Rich Rodriguez stays in Morgantown, chances are he'll get another chance to redeem himself and the program.
9) Hawaii (12-0) Last: beat Washington 35-28 Next: vs. Georgia (Sugar)
I suppose I have to put them somewhere. Let's see if they have it in them to stick around.
10) Missouri (11-2) Last: lost to Oklahoma 17-38 Next: vs. Arkansas (Cotton)
Probably a disappointment for the Tigers to end up here. The Cotton Bowl used to be a much bigger deal.
On the Bubble: Arizona State (10-2), Illinois (9-3), Florida (9-3), Clemson (9-3), Texas (9-3), USF (9-3), Wisconsin (9-3), Boston College (10-3), BYU (10-2), Tennessee (9-4)
Heisman Talk
They hand out the trophy this Saturday. What would my ballot look like if I had one?
1) Tim Tebow QB Florida
2) Darren McFadden HB Arkansas
3) Dennis Dixon QB Oregon
Sophemore or not, you can't discount accounting for 51 total touchdowns, even if most of the rushing touchdowns were little more than fullback plunges. Darren McFadden falls just a little short due to being nearly invisible for the entire month of October. Dennis Dixon gets the third place vote simply because he obviously meant so much to his team.
Now how do I think the voting will end up?
1) Tim Tebow QB Florida
2) Darren McFadden HB Arkansas
3) Chase Daniel QB Missouri
4) Colt Brennan QB Hawaii
5) Kevin Smith HB UCF
Right now, I don't see Tebow heading off to the NFL early. Despite some proclomations of his all-around game, I don't think he's the best pure passer, and might not have much of a future at the next level. That's not to say he might not improve, but he's not ready yet. That said, he'll have a realistic shot next season of duplicating Archie Griffin's two Heisman trophies. Be glad you don't live anywhere near Gainesville. If you think it's bad now, imagine how it would be if you were surrounded by people who actually liked him.
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