Football
Big Ten Countdown - No. 4 Penn State
By Tony Gerdeman

Predicted Finish 9-3 (5-3)

Two-Cent Overview

Quarterback Anthony Morelli returns after a record-setting season (most pass completions - 208; most pass attempts - 386), as do all of his wide receivers. The workhorse of the offense, running back Tony Hunt, is gone, and he takes his dependability with him. Three offensive linemen return, but only center A.Q. Shipley will return to his position of 2006. The defensive front was hit hard, and only one starter returns. Vicinity-tackler Paul Posluszny is also gone, but the linebackers are anything but short-handed. Starting cornerback Tony Davis moves to free safety, allowing A.J. Wallace to step in full time with Justin King on the outside. The secondary will definitely be an area of strength for Penn State.

Schedule

Sept. 1 Florida International (W)
Sept. 8 Notre Dame (W)
Sept. 15 Buffalo (W)
Sept. 22 at Michigan (L)
Sept. 29 at Illinois (L)
Oct. 6 Iowa (W)
Oct. 13 Wisconsin (W)
Oct. 20 at Indiana (W)
Oct. 27 Ohio State (W)
Nov. 3 Purdue (W)
Nov. 10 at Temple (W)
Nov. 17 at Michigan State (L)

Goal

A national championship. A Big Ten championship, however rare for Penn State, is not good enough for the Nittany Lions. Their goal every year is to win a national championship, and 2007 is no different. The schedule lays out well for them, save for a road game to Michigan.

Five Questions Looking For Answers

1. Can Anthony Morelli find the endzone and improve on his eleven touchdown passes from 2006?
2. Will running backs Austin Scott and Rodney Kinlaw be able to pick up Tony Hunt's sizable slack?
3. Can the offensive line find a workable unit before they head to Ann Arbor?
4. Are the young and inexperienced defensive tackles up to the challenge?
5. How many Nittany Lions does it take to change a light bulb? (The answer is 85, even though only 17 were indicted.)

Something To Look For

A brand new defensive line. Only defensive end Josh Gaines returns from last year's starting defensive line. The rest of the unit will most likely be made up of sophomores. The other end will probably be Maurice Evans. During Evans' recruitment, and even into last season, he drew comparisons to former Nittany Lion Tamba Hali. Evans is fast off the line and did record 1.5 sacks last year in limited duty. The tackles will be inexperienced, but very big. True sophomores Phil Taylor (6'4" 337) and Jared Odrick (6'5" 280) have the mass to stuff the run, but there's obviously more to playing defense than just "getting in the way". There are roughly six guys battling for the two defensive tackle spots, but the coaches definitely want an active rotation up front.

Returning Starters

Eight on offense, six on defense and the place-kicker.

Best Player

Linebacker Dan Connor. Connor drops ball carriers like prosecutors in Happy Valley drop charges. Many will argue that Connor, not Paul Posluszny, was the best linebacker on the field for the Nittany Lions last season, and his numbers (113 tackles, 9 tfl, 5 sacks, 2 interceptions and 3 forced fumbles) wouldn't veer too much from that claim. Connor will be making the move to middle linebacker this season, which should allow him to not only get to the sidelines quicker, but it will also put him at the point of attack more readily. Connor was probably underrated last season due to Posluszny's gravitational pull of accolades, but expect Connor to get his rightful due in 2007. Also, Connor is only 98 tackles away from Paul Posluszny's school-record 372 career tackles.

Second Best Player

Cornerback Justin King. With Justin King already talking about leaving for the NFL, you have to hope he won't screw up Penn State's famous graduation rates. You also have to hope he doesn't start playing like he already has one foot in the draft. If he concentrates on what's happening on the field, King is as good as any cornerback in the country. His stats (30 tackles, one interception) don't jump out at you like an angry mob of football players trying to invade your apartment, but it's hard to make plays when your side of the field is completely ignored by the opposing quarterback.

Best Chance For a Big Loss

at Michigan. It's doubtful there will be any "big losses" with this schedule, but this is definitely Penn State's most likely loss. And if the front four can't maintain some control, Michigan will be more than happy taking four yards per rush with their forty-odd carries.

Most Important Game

at Michigan. Until Penn State beats Michigan, this will always be their most important game. The current streak stands at eight-straight losses to the Wolverines.

Best Road Game To Pack Up The Family Truckster And Travel To

at Michigan State. As a Nittany fan, it is your duty to pack up your family and travel to your conference-mandated rival. And if the Spartans vehemently try to keep you from entering their stadium, you all know what you need to do.

Best Reason They Won't Be Undefeated

The backfield won't be good enough, or won't be able to stay healthy. Maybe both. And if they are good enough and healthy enough, it may not matter if the line can't open any holes.

Best Reason They Will Be Undefeated

The schedule. If they can somehow win in Ann Arbor in week four, the Nittany Lions should be favored the rest of the way out.

Game They Shouldn't Lose, But Could

at Illinois. Obviously, nobody should lose to a Ron Zook team, but the Illini do have some weapons on offense and defense. If Penn State can't get squared away up front--either front--then they may struggle for a while.

Player People Are Expecting Too Much From

Running back Austin Scott. Austin Scott is a talented back, but you can't expect a guy who has missed an entire year and battled injuries throughout his career to become a workhorse for his last hurrah. (Especially if he's going to be splitting carries with Rodney Kinlaw.) However, that doesn't mean he won't surprise everybody with a random 200-yard game at some point this season.

Player People Will Be Pleasantly Surprised By

Quarterback Anthony Morelli. Unlike Anthony Scirrotto's fury, Morelli has yet to strike fear in anybody so far. This, however, might be the year. As was mentioned earlier, Morelli set a couple of passing records last season. Perhaps forgotten among those records is the fact that Morelli only threw eight interceptions, and three of those came against the Buckeyes. If Morelli can improve his accuracy this season, while still keeping the ball from his opponents, he should start putting up some numbers befitting his legend.

Best Newcomer

Guard Lou Eliades. Eliades is a redshirt freshman and is currently listed as the first team left guard. Whether or not that's the case come September 1 has yet to be decided. But it looks like he'll definitely be in the mix all season long.

Game On The Schedule That Would Make Bret Bielema Jealous

Florida International. The only way Bielema would schedule a Florida school is if there is an "International", "Atlantic" or "Annex" in the school's name.

Something They Do Well

Clean up messes. No, this has nothing to do with garbage detail. This is in reference to the three Penn State linebackers finishing first, second and third on the team in tackles last year. The defensive line clogged up the blockers and the linebackers cleaned up the messes. If the defensive tackles can do their jobs this year, Connor and company should benefit once again. Perhaps the biggest benefactor will be outside linebacker Sean Lee. Lee finished third on the team in tackles (90) and sacks (5.5) last year. With Connor moving inside, Lee will basically step into Connor's old role. Expect him to put up some very good numbers and earn some conference-wide accolades this season.

Something They Don't Do So Well

Score touchdowns in the redzone. Last season, Penn State was in the redzone 51 times, converting 38 of those trips into scores (74.5%). However, only 22 of those scores were touchdowns (43.1%). Penn State likes to compare themselves to Michigan and Ohio State, so for comparison's sake, Michigan scored in 42 of their 47 trips (89.4%), with 28 of those going for touchdowns (59.6%). Ohio State scored in 46 of their 54 trips (85.2%), with 42 of those going for touchdowns (77.8%). Now with Tony Hunt gone, the Nittany Lions will be working without their most effective weapon.

What's Improved?

Wide receiver Derrick Williams. Williams has reportedly dropped around 15 pounds in excess weight in an effort to get faster and quicker. For somebody who burst on the scene as a freshman playmaker in 2005, this is a smart move. Last year was a shining example of a sophomore slump. He did have 40 receptions, but only averaged 34 yards receiving per game. It would benefit the Nittany Lions if Williams could become a downfield threat, rather than just being a guy who catches a quick hitch near the line of scrimmage and tries to avoid three tacklers. Of course, to become a downfield threat, Williams needs to improve his concentration, not just in routes, but in hands. He has seemingly re-dedicated himself to following up his freshman season with a productive junior season, and look for the coaches to get him back in the flow as much as possible.

What's Gotten Worse?

The line of scrimmage. Four out of a possible nine starters on the offensive and defensive line return, but it is likely that only two will be playing the same position they played last year. This mix and match approach is obviously necessary and for the best, but to think that there won't be a drop off from the control that both lines displayed last year would be foolish. This being Penn State, there is depth and talent, but most of it is unproven with regards to the positions they will be playing in 2007.

Anything Else We Should Know About?

Joe Paterno has repeatedly said that he doesn't know what the status will be for starting safety Anthony Scirrotto and defensive tackle Chris Baker after their offseason arrests for "attending an apartment party". Apparently he hasn't read the media guide, because both of them are smack dab in the two-deep, with Scirrotto still listed as a starter. (To be fair, there is an "OR" next to Scirrotto's name, indicating that his status as a starter isn't 100%. Of course, there is also an "OR" next to Justin King and A.J. Wallace's name, and everybody knows they'll be starting.) Scirrotto is also listed in the media guide as a "Player to Watch" this season, an accolade reserved for potential award candidates. So will they play? Absolutely. Will they miss any time? If they do, expect it to coincide with their opening game against Florida International. Notre Dame is in week two, so all sins will be forgiven by then.

Anything Else?

Place-kicking. Kevin Kelly was resoundingly meh last year, as he only converted 22 of his 34 field goal attempts. And he was only 13 for 25 in attempts beyond 30 yards. Joe Paterno doesn't want to sound too worried about the kicking situation, but you can hear his concern when he says, "Kevin Kelly has got to come to the front now and he's got to be a really big-league field goal kicker. I mean, we can't miss 35-yard field goals in big, tough games."

One Prediction

Anthony Morelli will double his touchdown output from last season.

Did you know (Media Guide factoid)

The Penn State coaching staff has coached a combined 129 years at Penn State.

Coach Speak

What Joe Paterno says: "You guys would be amazed how little attention that I've paid to some things that I don't know enough about the media to tell people what to do."

What Joe Paterno means: ???????

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