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Ohio State vs. Texas Preview By Tony Gerdeman |
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On Monday, Ohio State and Texas will meet for the third time in their storied histories.
The series between the two schools is currently tied at 1-1 and the Fiesta Bowl is a tremendous spot for the rubber match. (Especially when you consider that Jim Tressel is 3-0 in Fiesta Bowls.)
Overall, this will be Ohio State’s sixth Fiesta Bowl, and they have won four of their previous five.
This is Texas’ second trip here, and they are looking for their first Fiesta Bowl win, having lost to Penn State in 1997.
Texas has an overall bowl record of 24-21, with Mack Brown sporting a 7-3 mark, including 2-0 against the Big Ten.
In Texas’ history, they are 9-5 against the Big Ten, including 2-2 in bowl games.
Texas is 2-0 all-time in BCS bowl games, and has won both games by a total of four points.
Ohio State is 18-21 all-time in bowl games, while Tressel is 4-3.
They are also 4-2 all-time in BCS bowl games, while Jim Tressel has a 3-2 mark.
Tressel is also 4-1 against the Big XII, with his lone loss coming to Texas in 2005.
Overall, Ohio State is 22-4-1 in its history against the Big XII, including 4-0 in bowl games.
When Texas Has The Ball
Texas’ game plan starts and ends with quarterback Colt McCoy, and so should Ohio State’s.
This doesn’t mean that other players aren’t involved, it just means that McCoy is nearly always involved. McCoy leads the Longhorns in rushing with 576 yards, 200 yards more than the team’s second-leading rusher Vondrell McGee. McCoy also has 40 more carries than McGee this season.
Texas distributes their carries at tailback to a wide array of ball carriers. Of late, freshman Foswhitt Whittaker has been getting double-digit carries, though he has been average at best with those carries.
Chris Ogbonnaya rushed for 127 yards against Oklahoma, but has only had two carries over the last three games as Whittaker has re-emerged in the offense. However, Ogbonnaya is still an important part of this offense with his blocking and his receiving. He provides some of the same matchup issues as USC’s fullback Stanley Havili, but for the most part, the running game is going to flow through Colt McCoy’s hands.
The Longhorns will run plenty of read-option, and don’t expect McCoy to make the wrong read too many times, because that’s just not something he’s done much of this year.
The Buckeyes will likely use run blitzes to disrupt McCoy’s reads on the option plays When linebackers James Laurinaitis and Marcus Freeman get into the backfield, they have to make plays in order to move Texas backwards at least once per possession. If they can, the Longhorns will forced to over-extend their offense and the Buckeyes can take advantage, or at least make life more difficult.
In Mack Brown’s tenure at Texas, the Longhorns are 62-0 when rushing for over 200 yards and 96-3 when outrushing their opponents. One of those three losses came at hands of the Buckeyes in 2006, but stopping the run is important, even though there may not be a workhorse on this team.
The Ohio State defensive line won’t face a power running game except in short-yardage or goal-line situations when Texas likes to bring in 255-pound freshman running back Cody Johnson. Johnson finished the regular season with twelve rushing touchdowns.
Over the last couple of years, Texas preferred the shorter passing game, and they still use it quite a bit, but now Colt McCoy is completely comfortable going downfield. Receivers Jordan Shipley (79-982-11) and Quan Cosby (78-952-8) have nearly identical numbers this season and are McCoy’s top two targets. Texas’ third-leading receiver is Ogbonnaya who has 42 receptions. The tight end isn’t as big of a part of this offense as it has been in the past, but that’s just because the other weapons they utilize have been so effective.
It’s fairly likely that the Buckeyes will open with five defensive backs, with Jermale Hines and Tyler Moeller sharing time at the “Star” position. When they are not blitzing, they will need to keep an eye on throws to the running backs, because linebackers will have issues trying to stay with them. Cornerbacks Malcolm Jenkins, Chimdi Chekwa and Donald Washington cannot afford to miss tackles in the open field because one missed tackle could equal six points with the speed that Shipley and Cosby possess.
The Buckeyes will need to get pressure on McCoy. The Longhorns have given up 22 sacks this season, so it‘s not like he‘s protected like a treasure, but the Buckeyes only have 24 sacks of their own, so they’ll likely have to blitz in order to get pressure, and McCoy is deadly against the blitz if it’s even a bit late.
One wrinkle to watch out for will be back-up quarterback John Chiles. Chiles is an athlete that will sometimes line up in the backfield, and while he generally just carries the ball, he has completed 11 of 13 passes this season with two touchdowns.
Much like their offense, the Longhorns’ special teams is solid. Place-kicker Hunter Lawrence has only attempted eleven field goals but has made nine of them. He is 4-5 from beyond 40 yards. Punter John Gold is averaging 45.0 yards per punt, though he has only punted 21 times this season. He has put one-third of his kicks inside the 20-yard line.
Jordan Shipley is the team’s best returner. He has a 45-yard punt return for a touchdown against Texas Tech and a 96-yard touchdown on a kickoff return against Oklahoma, so Shipley definitely has an affinity for big stages.
When Ohio State Has The Ball
If the Buckeyes can’t run the ball against Texas, then they have no shot.
Yes, quarterback Terrelle Pryor has gotten a lot of practice time in preparation for this game, but the key will still be the running game for the Buckeyes. However, Ohio State will likely spread Texas out and possibly throw the ball early to open up the running game.
Texas will probably start out with a four-man front, but they utilized a three-man line much of the year against spread teams. With a three-man front there should be some running lanes available as there were against Texas Tech. However, Ohio State doesn’t utilize Texas Tech’s wide splits so the Longhorns’ defensive linemen will be closer together. That means the holes may not be as wide.
The Longhorns were pretty stingy on the ground this season, only allowing 73.6 yards rushing per game. However, they really only faced two comparable rushing attacks to Ohio State, and both of those teams (Oklahoma State and Baylor) rushed for over 200 yards on Texas Oklahoma State did it with consistent gains by the running back and timely pickups by the quarterback. Baylor did it with big plays. Quarterback Robert Griffin rushed for 101 yards and a long of 63. They also had two other running backs with runs of 34 and 40 yards. There is opportunity for the running game, but not if there is no threat of the pass.
Chris Wells is a fantastic running back, but Penn State held him to 55 yards on 22 carries because they didn’t really concern themselves with the passing game. The Buckeyes cannot allow Texas a similar luxery without making them pay for it.
Ohio State should get Terrelle Pryor involved as much as possible in this game. Use his feet and get him moving. Make Texas uncomfortable. But there should also be plenty of opportunity for quick passes when the Buckeyes go with three or four wides.
Texas will show a couple of blitzers, or have an outside linebacker put his hand down and rush the passer. Pryor has to be prepared for all of these multiple looks because he likely won’t be seeing the same thing twice.
Defensive end Brian Orakpo has 10.5 sacks and outside linebacker Sergio Kindle has 9.0 of his own. Kindle will play the strong side and also put his hand on the ground on passing downs. He has the speed to give Ohio State’s tackles trouble, but his bull rush isn’t as effective as his speed rush. Protecting Pryor against Orakpo cannot just fall on one player’s shoulders. Help will be needed. If the Buckeyes can manage to give Pryor time to move the ball to his receivers effectively enough to force Texas to bring in an extra defensive back, then the running game should open up, especially out of the spread. Pryor needs to be a big part of that running game. There is no accounting for what Pryor brings with his feet, and nobody knows that better than the Longhorns sporting National Championship rings.
There has been talk about the Buckeyes employing two quarterbacks at the same time in certain formations, but don't expect much success from that. The Buckeyes have had enough issues just executing the simple things in games like this recently, so they are best served by just focusing on taking the snap and handing the ball off safely.
The Buckeyes don’t pose the special teams threats that the Longhorns do, but they are not totally impotentl. Receiver Ray Small has an 80-yard punt return for a touchdown this season and is very dangerous when given room. Laamar Thomas is averaging 22.1 yards per kick return, and while there have been flashes, there haven’t been enough holes to fully ignite him towards the endzone.
Punter A.J. Trapasso has punted the ball 54 times this season for a 41.3 yard average. He has put 17 of those punts inside the 20-yard line and 14 of them have been 50 yards or longer.
Place-kicker Ryan Pretorius is 14-18 on field goals this year, but just 2-5 on kicks 40 yards or longer, however, the Buckeyes have two kickers who have made 50-yard field goals this season, so length isn’t usually an issue.
How It’ll End Up
Texas is going to move the ball because that’s just what they do.
They score touchdowns 78% of the time when they reach the redzone, and if the Buckeyes want to win, they’ll have to keep Texas below 50%.
The Buckeyes have the cornerbacks to stick with the Longhorns’ receivers, provided Colt McCoy doesn’t have five or six seconds to throw the ball. McCoy will be attacked repeatedly, because that is the only way the Buckeyes can win. They will lose some and they will win some in these attacks.
The Buckeye offense will have to dictate what Texas does on defense, and they’ll do this with quick passes and quick runs. They will need to make every trip into the redzone count. The Buckeyes cannot win with field goals.
In the end, however, the Ohio State passing game will open up the running lanes and Chris Wells will begin to take control of the game.
Then when the Longhorns return their focus back to Wells, Terrelle Pryor will take over, and finish off Texas.
Ohio State 28 - Texas 26.
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