Football
Big Ten Preseason Previews - No. 10 Iowa
By Tony GerdemanPredicted Finish 5-7 (2-6)
Two-Cent Overview
The Hawkeyes return their quarterback from last season and seven offensive linemen who started at least five games last season. The only returning running back with experience on this team wasn't even a member of the team in 2007. The defense returns the middle of the front four and both safeties. They will be looking for playmakers on the outside to go along with the returning A.J. Edds at outside linebacker.Schedule
Aug. 30 Maine (W)
Sept. 6 Florida International (W)
Sept. 13 Iowa State (W)
Sept. 20 at Pittsburgh (L)
Sept. 27 Northwestern (W)
Oct. 4 at Michigan State (L)
Oct. 11 at Indiana (L)
Oct. 18 Wisconsin (L)
Nov. 1 at Illinois (L)
Nov. 8 Penn State (L)
Nov. 15 Purdue (W)
Nov. 22 at Minnesota (L)Goal
A New Year's Day Bowl. The Hawkeyes need to get back to the top of the conference and show their recent downturn is an aberration. If they can't do it this season, then it looks like their run of success from 2002 thru 2004 was the real aberration.
Five Questions Looking For Answers
1. Can quarterback Jake Christensen become a playmaker?
2. Can running back Shonn Greene become the player that he showed the potential to be back in 2006?
3. How many ways can the Hawkeyes get the ball to receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos ("DJK")?
4. Can the new defensive ends provide a pass rush?
5. Are there two suitable cornerbacks out of the four primary candidates?Something To Look For
Yes, the prediction is for a 5-7 season, but with this schedule, there is a very fine line between five wins and ten wins. With some breaks and players playing as well as they are supposed to, this could very easily be an upper division team. However, given the past few years, a pessimist's voice is probably the most realistic one. The potential is there, but it's been there for years and look how that's gone.
Returning Starters
Eight on offense, five on defense and both kicking specialists.
Best Player
Defensive tackle Mitch King. King is probably the most active defensive tackle in the conference and has finished with at least 58 tackles in each of his first three seasons. Last season, he also added ten tackles for loss and 4.5 sacks. He was also second on the team in passes broken up, with seven. Every offensive coordinator in the conference is well aware of King, and they do what they can to counter him, but he still finds his way to the ball-carrier and does it with a tenacity that is unmatched. If the Hawkeyes are going to do anything this season, King's teammates will need to help him out because we've already seen that he can't do it all by himself.
Second-Best Player
Wide receiver Derrell Johnson-Koulianos. Yes, this is probably a bit premature--considering he's not even listed on the first team of the current depth chart, but DJK is the best playmaker on the team and if they are going bowling this year, the ball needs to be in his hands as much as possible. And I'm confident that once Johnson-Koulianos is a focal point of the offense, everybody will see what he can do. Double-digit touchdowns should not be unattainable.
Best Chance For a Big Loss
Wisconsin. Presumably, the Hawkeyes will come into this game having taken some shots from the likes of Northwestern, Michigan State and Indiana. The Badgers might just be the haymaker that puts Iowa on the canvas for good.
Most Important Game
At Michigan State. A win at Michigan State would likely make the Hawkeyes 5-1 or 6-0. If this happens, that means players are playing as well as they should be and momentum is firmly on the side of the Hawkeyes. However, a loss to Michigan State after a conference-opening win could set Iowa spiraling down a series of losses that they won't be able to recover from. Or, maybe, sometimes a loss is just a loss.
Best Road Game To Pack Up The Family Truckster And Travel To
At Pittsburgh. Well, we know that Iowa fans like to travel, and we know there will be plenty of seats available for this one because Pitt fans support their team about as voraciously as Mike Barwis supports the use of deep-frying in dieting.
Best Reason They Won't Be Undefeated
The running game. Right now, walk-on Paki O'Meara is at the top of the depth chart and reading between the lines, Kirk Ferentz is hoping Shonn Greene regains his form and takes the job. If somebody doesn't take the job from O'Meara, then we're either going to have a very sad running game in Iowa City, or the best story to come out of Iowa since...well, I can't think of any good stories that have come out of Iowa, so...
Best Reason They Will Be Undefeated
They don't play the Buckeyes this year. In 2002 when the Hawkeyes were extremely fortunate to avoid the Buckeyes, they made the most of it. Last year, however, they didn't. We'll see which way they fall this year--I'm siding on the side of 2007.
Game They Shouldn't Lose, But Could
Iowa State. Speaking of 2002, back when many claimed the Hawkeyes were the best team in the conference, those same folks generally failed to mention that the Hawkeyes weren't even the best team in their state that year, having lost to the Cyclones 36-31. Over the last six years, the series is tied 3-3, so there is plenty of precedent here.
Player People Are Expecting Too Much From
Running back Shonn Greene. Greene was a Hawkeye in 2005 (173 yards) and 2006 (205 yards) and showed some flashes while getting cursory carries in an offense that featured backs Albert Young and Damian Sims. Last year, Greene wasn't at Iowa, he was at Kirkwood Community College concentrating on his academics. The process has been a long one for all involved, but he is now back at Iowa and Kirk Ferentz wouldn't have gone through all of this trouble if he thought Greene wasn't worth it. However, he's still never had a full load as a tailback and he hasn't seen the speed of the game since 2006. It may be a rough September for Iowa's backfield.
Player People Will Be Pleasantly Surprised By
Tight end Tony Moeaki. Iowa fans won't be surprised by anything Moeaki does, but the rest of the conference might. Moeaki battled injuries last season, and was out this spring due to wrist surgery. He is ready to go now and he could be exactly what Jake Christensen needs in order to calm down.
Best Newcomer
Running back Nate Guillory. Guillory is a junior college transfer who was the only scholarship running back to participate in spring football for the Hawkeyes. And despite his presence, he still wasn't able to unseat Paki O'Meara. However, the speed that he provides means that he will find a way to see the field at a position where they need somebody to step up.
Something They Do Well
Employ active defensive tackles. Defensive tackles Mitch King (58) and Matt Kroul (74) combined for 132 tackles, which is what has come to be expected of each of them. Kroul's 74 tackles is an amazing statistic considering that only four teams in the Big Ten had duos that bested that number. King and Kroul's 132 tackles dwarf the second-tacklingest duo, Michigan's Terrance Taylor (55) and Will Johnson (40), who combined for 95 tackles. One point however, of Kroul's 74 tackles, only two of them were behind the line, and he had no sacks. So while he makes a lot of tackles, he could stand to make more plays.
Something They Don't Do So Well
Make plays at linebacker. Along the lines of the Kroul criticism, Iowa linebackers don't really make many plays in the backfield, as that's not usually what's asked of them. However, that doesn't mean you can't get to a place quickly and keep the running back from reaching the line of scrimmage. Last season, Iowa's starting linebacker trio of Mike Humpal (4.5), A.J. Edds (3.5) and Mike Klinkenborg (2) combined for ten total tackles for loss and only two sacks. For comparison's sake, here is how the other ten starting linebacker corps in the conference fared with the same statistic: Ohio State (16 tfls, 11.5 sacks), Penn State (18 tfls, 13 sacks), Wisconsin (22 tfls, 4.5 sacks), Michigan (29, 10.5 sacks), Illinois (20.5 tfls, 3.5 sacks), Michigan State (18.5 tfls, 7.5 sacks), Northwestern (14 tfls, 3 sacks), Purdue (22 tfls, 1 sack), Minnesota (18 tfls, 2.5 sacks), Indiana (18 tfls, 4.5 sacks). Linebacker sacks come from blitzes, but as you can see with the numbers provided, you can make plenty of plays in the backfield without blitzing--unless you're the Hawkeyes, apparently.
What's Improved?
Athleticism at defensive end. After losing two three-year starters at defensive end in Kenny Iwebema and Bryan Mattison, you would think spirits would be down in Iowa City. However, last season, top reserves Adrian Clayborn and Christian Ballard got plenty of playing time, and showed themselves to be the potential playmakers that this team is looking for. Mattison and Iwebema combined for 12.5 sacks last season. Expect Clayborn and Ballard to top that.
What's Gotten Worse?
Experience at linebacker. Iowa returns one starter at linebacker in outside backer A.J. Edds. They are still looking for two others. However, when they find them, they will find two players who provide a speed upgrade over Humpal and Klinkenborg from last year, which can only help in getting into the backfield.
Anything Else We Should Know About?
Even though there are many experienced starters on this offensive line, they are likely not done moving around. The only player that has probably established position is center Rafael Eubanks. Everybody else is still be in a flux. The Iowa staff wants to find the best five linemen and work from that. The fact that so many linemen started last season is an indicator that Kirk Ferentz wasn't happy with the line, so if there isn't improvement this season, the changes may not be finished. Do not expect this line to give up 46 sacks like they did last season if for no other reason than self-preservation.
Anything Else?
Jake Christensen may be getting better. Christensen was sacked 46 times last year. He was thrown around more than your typical Penn State student who just happened to be at the wrong place at the wrong time--his HOME. Despite all of that pressure, Christensen only threw six interceptions, but he also only completed 53.5% of his passes, which tells me that his accuracy is so off, his passes aren't even catchable for the defense. However, with a year of starting experience, and a better offensive line, he should be a more composed player who just needs to get the ball to his playmakers out wide. (But if there is no running game, Christensen is in trouble again this year.)
One Prediction
If Iowa starts out 6-0, they won't lose until November--and maybe late November at that.
Did you know (Media Guide factoid)
"Sixteen former Iowa Hawkeyes have competed in ten Super Bowl games since 1990 and a former Hawkeye has been a member of one of the super Bowl teams in each of the last five years. And, several times those former Hawkeyes were key players in the game."
Coach Speak
What he says about the placekickers "Both Daniel Murray and Austin Signor have shown potential, but both have been inconsistent. Both are capable, we've seen them execute successfully, but consistency is something we have to develop. We're not ready to go at this stage..."
What he means: "Both Daniel Murray and Austin Signor have shown potential, but I would drop them both in a New York Minute if I could find somebody that could just kick straight. You don't even have to kick it far, we just want straight! And it doesn‘t have to be all of the time, just most of the time. And you don‘t even have to be a dude. Well, actually, we‘d prefer a dude."
Return to the-OZone Front Page
(c) 2008 The O-Zone, O-Zone
Communications, Inc. All rights reserved.
This material may not be published, rebroadcast,rewritten, or redistributed.