Football
Big Ten Countdown - No. 5 Wisconsin
By Tony Gerdeman
Predicted Finish
8-4 (4-4)
Two-Cent Overview
A quarterback battle should eventually determine a winner, and that winner will get to hand the ball off to the conference’s best running back. There is a good group of receivers here, provided somebody can get them the ball. The offensive line is still being rebuilt as we speak, but there are always parts to work with in Madison. The defensive line may not be as fortunate, as the interior has been completely gutted--even the copper wiring is gone. The back seven has more questions than answers, but a favorable schedule will mask a few larger issues.
Schedule
Sep.5 Northern Illinois (W)
Sep.12 Fresno State (W)
Sep.19 Wofford (W)
Sep.26 Michigan State (L)
Oct.3 at Minnesota (L)
Oct.10 at Ohio State (L)
Oct.17 Iowa (W)
Oct.31 Purdue (W)
Nov.7 at Indiana (W)
Nov.14 Michigan (W)
Nov.21 at Northwestern (L)
Dec.5 at Hawaii (W)Goal
A New Year’s Day Bowl. Head Coach Bret Bielema has to stop the bleeding this season and a trip to one of the Big Ten’s many New Year’s Day bowl games could provide some much-needed clotting.
Team Motto
“Men, we will run the ball until we can run it no more. And then we will punt.”
Five Questions Looking For Answers
1. Is Bret Bielema the answer?
2. Will a quarterback win the job, or simply have it given to him after the other guy loses it?
3. Can this front four contain the run?
4. Can the linebackers pick off what the defensive line misses?
5. Can the secondary eliminate the big plays?Something To Look For
The quarterback situation. As is generally the case at Wisconsin, there is a senior quarterback (Dustin Sherer) ready to take every single snap. But in a new twist for the Badgers, there is also a very intriguing redshirt freshman (Curt Phillips) who is making his case. The staff readily admits Phillips’ ceiling is much higher, and right now he’s still getting better. He will eventually catch and pass Sherer as the starting quarterback, the question is just how soon? Phillips provides the size (6’3” 215) and athleticism (4.6 forty) that gives this team options--options that Bret Bielema had hoped for in ghosts of quarterbacks past. There will be growing pains, but at least it’s caused by growing. The pains that Sherer will provide will be of a different nature. Coaches have openly expressed their disappointment in the mistakes that Sherer continues to make as a senior. It makes little sense to go with the senior this season when they can go ahead and get Phillips acclimated this year with an eye towards a very good run in 2010.
Returning Starters
Six on offense, five on defense and both kicking specialists.
Best Player
Running Back John Clay. Clay has more ability than just about any running back in the nation, but he’s far from a completed project. He still needs pushed, and he’s getting it from back-up Zach Brown, but at 6’1” 248, there is no more ideal running back to carry the load for the Badgers than John Clay. After rushing for 884 yards last year as a redshirt freshman (and essentially forcing incumbent P.J. Hill to leave for the NFL), the coaches know what he is capable of and probably want to give him more than he can handle right now. Fortunately for Wisconsin, Clay isn’t a one-man show and the Badgers have other options in the running game if need be
Second-Best Player
Strong Safety Jay Valai. Valai is the hardest hitter in the conference, which is why the Big Ten is trying to rein him in with renewed emphasis on penalizing the use of the helmet as a weapon. Unfortunately for Valai, the suits have spoken and he’s going to have to be less maimful this year or risk suspensions. Even if the conference hadn’t cracked down on Valai’s tractor beam of doom mentality, the coaches were already working on it. Too many times during the season Valai aimed for destruction rather simply stopping the play. This season expect a concerted effort from Valai to become a more complete player, which is something this inexperienced defense desperately needs.
Best Chance For a Big Loss
At Ohio State. The Buckeyes are the best team on the Badgers’ schedule and I’m not convinced there is enough speed on the edges to contain quarterback Terrelle Pryor nor enough discipline in the secondary on the scrambles.
Most Important Game
Michigan State. It’s the perfect chance to get conference play off on a great note by getting a win over one of the favorites in the Big Ten. However, a loss could have lasting effects as Wisconsin muddles through the toughest part of their schedule.
Best Road Game To Pack Up The Family Truckster And Travel To
At Minnesota. Is there any other choice? The oldest and most-played rivalry in the FBS and you get to watch it in Minnesota’s brand new TCF Bank Stadium. And the winners wield an axe! Of course, you may want to explain the whole axe thing to your kids because you don’t want them thinking this is normal behavior. Imagine what would happen after a friendly game of Trivial Pursuit on family game night if your “bad kid” were to win. Scary thought, isn’t it?
Game On The Schedule That Joe Paterno Would Deny Having Any Knowledge Of Scheduling
Wofford. Upon being asked why his team scheduled Wofford, Paterno would look confused and ask “What’s a Wofford?” And since nobody knows what a Wofford is, the issue would be dropped.
Game They Shouldn't Lose, But Could
Michigan. There’s no way Wisconsin should have lost to the Wolverines last year, but they did. They say lightning doesn’t strike the same place twice, but last year’s game was in Ann Arbor, so…
Best Reason They Won't Be Undefeated
The opening four-game stretch of conference games. It’s just too much to ask for the Badgers to go unscathed having two tough home games sandwiching two tough road games. In fact, it would not be that much of a surprise to see them lose all four of these games.
Best Reason They Will Be Undefeated
That being said about their opening four conference games, there is only one game in which they will be a significant underdog. If you break this schedule down with a bit of a Badger lean to you, you can see the entirety of this schedule coming down to the Ohio State game. Of course, if you’re breaking anything down with a Badger lean to it, you should probably hand over your keys and just sit tight for a while.
Player People Are Expecting Too Much From
Wide receiver David Gilreath. Blessed with dynamic ability, Gilreath has much of this team’s success pressing down upon his shoulders. He is expected to be the team’s number one wide receiver, as he was last year. He will also be carrying the ball on end arounds and misdirections like he did last season. And he is also being counted on to return both kicks and punts--and to do a much better job than he did last year. All of this following surgeries for stress fractures on both feet this past spring. Gilreath is capable of big things, but you have to wonder if the weight of all of his duties will wear him down by the time November gets here.
Player People Will Be Pleasantly Surprised By
Freshman offensive lineman Travis Frederick. Frederick is an early enrollee who came to Madison in the winter and participated in spring ball. The coaches love him and he’s currently working at center while starter John Moffitt recovers from an injury. Once Moffitt is back, don’t be surprised to see Frederick take the left guard job away from junior Jake Bscherer.
Best Newcomer
Redshirt Freshman Quarterback Curt Phillips. Phillips has as much possibility and potential as any Badger quarterback in recent memory. Generally, Wisconsin usually employs game managers at quarterback, but Phillips could prove to be a game changer. It may not necessarily happen this year, but there will be flashes this season where you can see the future--and it will be good. (And if Iowa fans can get excited about Ricky Stanzi, Wisconsin fans should be allowed to get excited about Curt Phillips.)
Something They Do Well
Run the ball. (It’s analysis like this that keeps you coming back for more, isn’t it?) Before you dismiss the obvious and move on, it should be noted that the Badgers rushed for an average of 211 yards per game last season--their highest total since the days of Ron Dayne.
Something They Don't Do So Well
Return kicks. Last year the Badgers were 119th in the nation in kickoff returns with a 17.14 yard average per return. That’s like being twelfth in the Big Ten. The performance last season was so pathetic that Bret Bielema has determined to make it a point of emphasis this season, demanding that his players hold their blocks longer than they did last year. The Badgers will also switch to a two-returner system. Last year David Gilreath was the designated returner on kickoffs and the other deep man merely blocked for him. This year, either returner could take off, which should slow the defenders down a bit. The Badgers can’t possibly be as terrible in this area as they were last year.
What's Improved?
The receivers. Last year’s group of wide receivers consisted of three sophomores and one redshirt freshman. This year they are all back and all four are carrying the added benefit of experience. Much has already been said about Gilreath, but sophomore Nick Toon emerged during the second half of last season and even more is expected of him this season. Junior Kyle Jefferson had a bit of a sophomore slump last season and looks to at least get back to his freshman form that saw him start seven games and catch 26 passes in 2007. Junior Isaac Anderson started eight games last year, catching 21 passes. He does whatever is asked of him and isn’t afraid to mix it up with the defense. True freshman Kraig Appleton is also turning heads and could see the field immediately. There is depth and talent here. They just have to get the ball delivered to them in a workable manner.
What's Gotten Worse?
Defensive middle. The Badgers have to replace defensive tackles Mike Newkirk and Jason Chapman, who combined for 98 tackles last year. The group slated to get the snaps this season will have a tough time even approaching those numbers in 2009, let alone matching them. Wisconsin will be looking for production from a group of four or five candidates, none of whom seem ready to make an impact. If nobody steps up at defensive tackle, don’t be surprised to see defensive end J.J. Watt make the move inside. He’s already slated to play defensive tackle against spread teams, and with most Big Ten teams running some variation of the spread, it would seem a logical fit to slide the 6’6” 285-pound Watt inside permanently.
Anything Else We Should Know About?
The secondary issues. The drama continues to grow in Madison. Bret Bielema suspended back-up safeties Shane Carter and Aubrey Pleasant a few days back and now the two suspendees are talking about getting lawyers involved in order to get back on the team. (A lesser person would say that this was the first time anybody has ever fought to remain in Wisconsin.) But Bielema is sticking by his guns, and so far the rest of the team has stood by him. The Badgers are already set at safety, but the experience Carter (20 starts) and Pleasant (13 starts) would have brought will be missed. Still, both have been given ample opportunities to contribute and both subsequently failed to keep their starting jobs. This was a message that Bielema could afford to send, but the depth has definitely taken a hit. The cornerbacks are in a better situation with a few viable options to play alongside Aaron Henry. The staff has been very impressed with sophomore Devin Smith because he’s always where he needs to be. The team has better athletes and faster players to choose from, but Smith’s reliability is moving him up the charts.
Anything Else?
The linebacker issues. Last year’s starting middle linebacker Jaevery McFadden moves back to his more natural spot on the weakside, allowing junior Culmer St. Jean to take over in this middle. Last year was McFadden’s first as a starter. St. Jean has started three games in the middle over his first two seasons, including last year’s bowl game where he led the team with seven tackles against the Seminoles. The starter on the strongside looks to be junior Blake Sorensen, who got two starts on the weakside last year while Jonathan Casillas was injured. This new linebacking corps isn’t terribly inexperienced, but there is also still plenty of room to grow. And they’ll have to do it quick, because the season doesn’t wait and there isn’t much experience behind them to lean on.
Brad Pitt Role Or Movie That This Team Resembles
Ocean’s Twelve. Much like Bret Bielema compared to Barry Alvarez, the sequel wasn’t nearly as good as the original.
One Prediction
Defensive end O’Brien Schofield will approach double-digit sacks this season.
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