NFL Buckeyes vs. Scout: Are They Prophets?
By Michael Chung
Recruitniks all over the world look at a player’s star power. Are they 2, 3, 4 or 5 star guys? They all want the high-powered superstar recruits. But not every player is equal and not all services rate a prospect in a similar fashion. Take John Simon. Scout gave him a five-star rating but Rivals only gave him three.
What constitutes a five-star recruit? How do services define them? Scout does a pretty good job of giving specific definition describing it this way: There are some expectations that come with a five-star rating
" He should be an All-American or first or second round NFL Draft pick. Four stars, I expect to get drafted or be an All-Conference guy. Three stars I expect to be a plus starter on his team. Two stars I expect to be a contributor."
In this installment of the-Ozone.net recruiting, we will look at some current Buckeyes who are in the NFL and compare them to their past star ratings by Scout. Not every NFL Buckeye will be covered in this article so we will take at least one or two more before we can have a final determination on Scout’s validity in determining recruits’ ability on the field. We begin with the Baltimore Ravens and John Simon.
John Simon: (2009-2012) LB Baltimore Ravens
Scout Rating: Five-Star
While other services rated John Simon a three or a four star, Scout got it right. A defensive lineman for most of his OSU career, the Ravens moved him to outside linebacker. A fourth round draft pick by the Ravens, Scout nailed Simon solidly.
His scouting report reads: “When Simon uses his hands, he is a load to handle. As is the case with any young player he tends to forget that once in a while. He is very explosive off the snap and often commands a double-team. It's no coincidence that the linebacker's at Cardinal Mooney make a ton of tackles. He is tremendous in pursuit and is athletic enough that if he makes a mistake and penetrates too deep, he can make up the lost ground and still make a play.”
Though Simon now plays LB—which is not uncommon to move from DE to LB in the NFL—Scout got John Simon right. He was a high contributor his four years at OSU, but not a first rounder like five stars should be. Regardless, Scout gets kudos for John.
Mike Nugent: (2001-2004) K Cincinnati Bengals
Scout Rating: Three-Star
Kickers rarely receive higher than a three-star rating but if one of Scout’s criteria is whether or not they will be drafted as well as ranking each player by position, then one can argue Scout missed this one. A second round draft choice by the Jets in 2005, Nugent has been in the league eight years though some years were marred by injury. His Scout report reads: Was a fine QB and K at Centerville High School. Selected Ohio State over Pitt in January of 2001. Was 13 of 17 on field goals in high school. Brother Kevin plays soccer at OSU. Majoring in Transportation/Logistics.
He recently kicked a game winning 54-yard field goal to defeat the Detroit Lions much like he did at Ohio State when he kicked a 55 yarder to defeat Marshall. As successful as Nugent has been, Scout missed wide right on Nuge.
Dane Sanzenbacher (2007-10) WR Cincinnati Bengals
Scout Rating: 4-Star
Dane signed with the Bears after going undrafted in 2011. He s currently with the Bengals and is a WR in waiting behind talents like AJ Green. I would say Scout got Sanzenbacher wrong overall. Four-star players, according to Scout, should be drafted and Dane was a free agent who worked hard and has stuck around. But on the flip side, Dane was a stand out at OSU and is still in the NFL playing in his fourth season.
Brian Hartline (2006-2008) WR Miami Dolphins
Scout Rating: 2-Star
Brian waived his final year of eligibility to enter the NFL draft and it turned out to be a great decision. He has had a solid NFL career so far after producing a more than solid career at OSU. His Scout report reads: “Was a do-it-all player at GlenOak ... began his junior year as a quarterback, but switched to receiver after four games and caught 41 passes for 411 yards (his brother, Michael, replaced him at quarterback) ... also returned punts and kickoffs as a junior ... injured his knee in the season opener his senior year and missed the remainder of the season ... did play in the Big 33 game ... also ran track for three years and won state titles in both the 110-meter and the 300-meter hurdles as a senior. “.
But the two star rating gives Scout a huge F for grading the heartbeat of Brian Hartline. This star prediction was clearly an incomplete or an interception on this wide receiver.
Devier Posey (2008-2011) WR Houston Texans
Scout Rating: 5 Stars
Posey did have a great career overall that was marred by Tat-gate. Still Scout nailed down Devier correctly. His report by Scout reads: “Posey is a physical and powerful runner with the ball in his hands. He rarely goes down on the initial contact and does a nice job of breaking tackles. Posey can get behind a secondary and be a deep threat and he can also dominate the middle of the field. He has good hands, size and speed. He runs good routes, and can also change directions in space.”
After missing the mark widely with Hartline, Scout redeems itself by nailing it on Devier.
Mike Brewster (2008-2011) OL Jacksonville Jaguars
Scout Rating: 5-star
The Brew saw the starting center position during his freshman year. Everyone felt he would be the next Nick Mangold. Though Brew did well, he fell short of matching Mangold. His Scout report reads: “He is a dominating drive blocker that once he locks up on you it’s all over. Brewster has super leg drive and is overpowering at the point of attack. Equally impressive is the way he blocks on the move when pulling and trapping. Brewster shows excellent quickness for a big man and is tough even when he gets to the second level. You also have to love Brewster’s motor as he plays until the whistle blows. He is always moving and attacking.”
Brew was signed by the Jacksonville jaguars as an undrafted free agent in 2012, with a 5-star ranking translating into a high NFL draft choice and a career that never seemed to reach its full potential, I would say Scout missed on Brewster, despite this Brewster making millions.
Santonio Holmes (2003-2005) WR New York Jets
Scout Rating: 4-star
Rivals had him at 3 stars but Scout was more accurate. Santonio was a Super Bowl MVP for the Steelers and is still making contributions in the NFL despite his current injury situation. A first rounder in 2006, Scout got Holmes right; only he should have been five stars.
Scout rating: 2-star
If two stars equal a contributor, then Scout whiffed big on Chekwa. Drafted in the 4th round by the Oakland Raiders, Chekwa had a great career in the Scarlet and Gray, redshirting his freshman year but being a significant player at CB the rest of his time at OSU. He suffered an injury in the Sugar Bowl against SEC Arkansas but has enjoyed a great NFL career so far. Scout was wrong and there is a lot of smoke coming out of this Chimdi.
So with these initial eight NFL Buckeyes, the Scout rating system based on this highly unscientific and anecdotal-esque study gives Scout a 50% accuracy rating. We will look at 8-10 more Buckeyes in the next article.