The Season of Recruiting Rankings: Scout
By Michael Chung
After previously unpacking the Rivals recruiting rankings, we'll will now turn to Scout. Their system is similar to Rivals. While Rivals scores based on their own rating points and whether or not a player is in the Rivals 250, Scout gives player points based on the number of stars they possess and where the player is ranked at their respective positions, rather than lumping all the players in one pool like Rivals does for their 250.
So a player earns points first by their star rating:
5 Star = 200 points
4 Star = 120 points
3 Star = 40 points
2 Star = 20 points
Second, based on their rank at their respective position:” The No. 1 player at a position is worth 100 points, counting down to the last ranked player at his position to 0.”
Here is how it looks using the QB position as an example, “assuming Scout ranks 100 quarterbacks.”
5-Star, No. 1 QB = 300 points
4-Star, No. 10 QB = 210 points
3-Star, No. 50 QB = 90 points
2-Star, No. 75 QB = 45 points
The Buckeyes currently sit sixth in the Scout team rankings with 3263 points. Once again, Alabama is numero uno with 3984.
Noah Brown is a four star, which equals 120 points, and he is ranked 36 at his position, giving him an additional 65 pts. so Brown is worth 185 Scout points to OSU. Here are the Scout point values for the rest of the class (OSU currently has no Scout 5 star commits):
Curtis Samuel (4 star, 26th ranked WR) 120+ 75=195
Malik Hooker (4 star, 44th ranked WR) 120+ 57= 177
Demetrius Knox (4 star, 7th ranked OG) 120+ 94=214
Jamarco Jones (4 star, 6th ranked OT) 120+95=215
Terry McLaurin (4 star, 48th ranked WR) 120+ 53= 173
Stephen Collier (3 star, 48th ranked QB) 40 + 53= 93
Jayln Holmes (4 star, 9th ranked DE) 120+92=212
Sean Nuernberger (3 star, NR) 40
Dante Booker (4 star, 5th ranked OLB) 120+96=216
Lonnie Johnson (3 star, 64th ranked WR) 40+ 37=77
Kyle Berger (4 star, 2nd ranked OLB) 120+99=219
Sam Hubbard (4 star, 4th ranked OLB) 120+ 97=217
Dylan Thompson (3 star, 33rd ranked DE) 40+ 68=108
Parris Campbell (4 star, 9th ranked RB) 120+ 92=212
Kyle Trout (4 star, 18th ranked OT) 120+83=203
Damon Webb (4 star, 6th ranked CB) 120+ 95=215
Marcelys Jones (3 star, 34th ranked OG) 40+67=107
This gives OSU a total Scout score of 3,263 and sixth place. Could OSU defeat Alabama in Scout? Alabama is number one at 3984. I projected that OSU will finish 2014 with these players—Mike Gesicki, Marshon Lattimore, Raekwon McMillan, Erick Smith, Thomas Holley, and Chad Mavety—I will include their current Scout value to Ohio State then add up the numbers for a hypothetical Scout finish.
Mike Gesicki (3 star, 15th ranked TE) 40+ 86=126
Marshon Lattimore (4 star, 7th ranked CB) 120+94= 214
Raekwon McMillan (4 star, 5th ranked MLB) 120+96=216
Erick Smith (4 star, 11th ranked S) 120+ 90=210
Thomas Holley (4 star, 13th ranked DT) 120+88=208
Chad Mavety (4 star, NR due to Juco) 120
This would give OSU a hypothetical total of 4,357 Scout points. Alabama would need 373 just to tie. So OSU has a very realistic chance to overtake Alabama in Scout's rankings.
Scout will also revaluate and may bump up some players or demote others. I think players like Stephen Collier and Marcelys Jones are prime candidates for more stars, and do not be surprised to see someone like Damon Webb, Demetrius Knox, or Curtis Samuel get bumped to five stars.
On their star ratings, Lisa Horne writes: "A star rating is not an evaluation . . . Until we have a secondary grading system, the only way we can tell you what a five-star player is, 'he's a top 50 player.' That's what a five-star player is. There's no ambiguity behind it."
Scout describes its ratings (stars) this way: ”Kennedy said there are some expectations that come with a five-star rating. He should be an All-American or first or second round NFL Draft pick," he said. "Four stars, I expect to get drafted or be an All-Conference guy. Three stars I expect to be a plus starter on his team. Two stars I expect to be a contributor."
If this is true, the Buckeyes are loaded with NFL and All-Conference talent.
Since Alabama has won 3 of the last four championships and five of the last six Rivals rankings, how does Nick Saban stack up in Scout over the same period of time?
Last year, Ohio State won Scout's rankings while Alabama finished 4th; in 2012, Alabama finished second while the Buckeyes finished third. 2011 saw Alabama finish 7th and the Buckeyes 6th; 2010 Bama finished 4th while the Buckeyes 20th; 2009 Alabama finished second to Ohio State’s #1, and in 2008, Alabama was #1 and the Buckeyes number 4. While Alabama has finished #1 five of the last six years in Rivals they have only finished #1 once in Scout. If there is a correlation between recruiting and national titles, Rivals would appear to have the very unscientific edge over Scout during this cursory study.
Since Scout has defined what it means to be a 5, 4, 3, and 2 star athletes, in future articles we will explore current Buckeyes in the NFL and whether or not their Scout ranking was right on, way off, or somewhere in between. Up next will be 24/7.