The initial College Football Playoff rankings were released Tuesday night. Ohio State was expected to show up anywhere from No. 3 to No. 6, and No. 6 it was.
Georgia being No. 1 shouldn’t have been a surprise as it was an opportunity for the committee to show everybody that they can look deeper than the shiny object known as Alabama. The Crimson Tide being No. 2 was as low as they could go based on the fact that they have zero losses and they are Alabama.
In my opinion, it was either going to be Ohio State or Notre Dame at No. 3, but it was probably too early to move the Buckeyes that high based on their season to this point. They only have one quality win, and moving them to No. 3 already would have been a contradiction of what they did with Georgia and Alabama.
By keeping OSU out of the top three, that pushed them back into a conversation with Oklahoma, which brings in the head-to-head and the Sooners have the edge there.
So how bad were the Buckeyes screwed in the initial rankings?
Pretty much not at all.
Notre Dame’s loss came by one point to Georgia, who is the committee’s No. 1 team. Clemson, meanwhile, has wins over the No. 13 and No. 14 teams in the initial rankings. The loss to Syracuse obviously wasn’t enough to cost them anything meaningful. Their last three conference wins have only been by 14 points each, so if they don’t start to look better, perhaps they could be overcome by teams behind them.
That leaves Ohio State and Oklahoma in a discussion all by themselves for No. 5 and we already saw how that game turned out. Would it turn out differently if the two teams played this Saturday? It doesn’t matter.
How Concerned Should the Buckeyes Be?
Not even a little. It’s simply too early and there has been no proof yet that a one-loss Big Ten Champion will be left out of the playoffs. Oklahoma may be an issue for a while, but even if the Sooners win the Big XII Championship Game, they’d likely be doing it against a two-loss team that they’ve already beaten.
How Concerned Should Buckeye Fans Be?
Maybe a little, but there’s no reason to be overly concerned. A lot of things would have to happen and it’s not worth going over the litany of scenarios that would keep a 12-1 Ohio State team out of the playoffs. You’ll want to root for Wisconsin the rest of the month, however.
Random CFP Thoughts
+ I might be in the minority here, but right now I can’t justify both the ACC and Notre Dame getting into the playoffs. The Irish are a quasi-ACC team and if they want to dabble with a conference, they need to be tied to it. The same goes for the ACC. If you want to have an association with Notre Dame, don’t be upset when they go to the CFP over your conference champion. That being said, I’d have a hard time sending an 11-win Notre Dame to the playoffs over a 12-win ACC champ. (I don’t consider Miami a viable discussion topic here.)
+ Buckeye fans should have wanted Alabama at No. 1 because it would have shown that the committee was willing to put more credence into the eye test rather than the resume. Ohio State needs to get enough distance from Oklahoma to keep head-to-head from coming into play. The Buckeyes look better than the Sooners do right now, but they have to keep driving that wedge the rest of the season.
+ Keep rooting for Penn State. The fact that they are sitting at No. 7 means they can only move up if they win out, which will continue to give Ohio State a great win.
+ I view conference championship games as a play-in game for the teams in the Top 4, so if they lose, they should be out of consideration. Even if that’s their first loss. The conference championship game is a team’s opportunity to show that they belong, and if they can’t get it done, then let somebody else in who got the job done. Plus, the more weight the committee puts on conference championships, the longer we can go without expanding the playoffs.
+ Can both Ohio State and Oklahoma make it? I think so. If — in my world — only two of the Top 4 right now will be eligible because the other two will be canceled out, you can move Oklahoma and Ohio State right up and in to the Top 4.
+ Anybody telling you that an undefeated Wisconsin might get left out should be laughed at and ridiculed.