Any time Ohio State loses a game, the reasons are parsed over and then paraded down Main Street for the perceived shameful act that it was.
This has been the case for each of Urban Meyer’s eight losses in his six seasons at OSU.
Sixty-eight wins and eight losses. That is what Meyer’s Buckeye teams have done since 2012. It is one of the best marks in the nation in that span.
Almost all of those losses were unexpected, and yet most of them have one major characteristic in common.
In six of Meyer’s eight losses at Ohio State, a Buckeye quarterback had more carries than any one running back. And that’s also true of both losses this season.
Sacks also count as rushing attempts, so that skews the number somewhat, but not enough to erase a trend that seemingly has no end in sight.
Nineteen times Urban Meyer’s teams have had a quarterback finish a game with more rushing attempts than a running back. The Buckeyes are 13-6 in that span.
That’s a .684 winning percentage, which isn’t bad — it’s a touch below John Cooper’s .715 career mark at Ohio State.
The problem with that 13-6 number — other than it’s six losses in 19 games — is that six of those wins came when Braxton Miller was the quarterback.
With defenses able to dictate who runs the ball and who doesn’t against a read-option offense, it made sense when they had to pick their poison between Miller and Carlos Hyde. It does not make as much sense when choosing between J.T. Barrett and J.K. Dobbins.
Under Miller, the Buckeyes were 6-1 when he had more carries than any running back.
In the four seasons since then, however, Ohio State is 7-5 in games when a Buckeye quarterback has more carries than any of the running backs.
That’s a .583 winning percentage. For comparison’s sake, Brady Hoke’s winning percentage at Michigan was .608.
Now are you ready to get even more stupified?
What is Urban Meyer’s record when his quarterback doesn’t have more carries than a running back?
Brace yourselves, because it is 55-2. That’s a winning percentage of .965.
In other words, when a Buckeye quarterback hands the ball off more than he keeps it, Ohio State almost always wins.
The two losses where a running back led the team in rushing attempts were Penn State in 2016 and Clemson in 2013. Had the Buckeyes not had a complete mental collapse on special teams in that game, they would have a 56-1 mark. And had Braxton Miller’s shoulder not been completely shot against Clemson, the Buckeyes could conceivably have a 57-0 record when a running back leads the team in rushing attempts.
Is that just coincidence?
I don’t see how it can be.
After Saturday’s game, this current Buckeye team will have two 1,000-yard rushers on the roster — Mike Weber did it last year and J.K. Dobbins will do it this year. That’s enough proven production to allow the offense to rely on their abilities.
The lack of touches for the running backs isn’t about Tony Alford subbing in Weber. This problem predates Alford. It isn’t about Kevin Wilson and a pass-happy offense. This problem predates Wilson.
The issue is with the different ways a quarterback handles the ball in Meyer’s offense. Like all offenses, some of those quarterback rushes are scrambles, and those plays have kept many scoring drives alive. Then there is the constant use of the quarterback on short-yardage situations. They are incredibly effective, which is why Meyer’s calls it a “get-out-of-jail-free card.”
The main problem here is one that has already been mentioned — the reading of the defense to determine a hand-off or a keep allows the defense to keep the ball out of the best runners’ hands. This is not an effective way to get your best playmakers involved.
Did the fact that J.K. Dobbins only had six carries against Iowa cost the Buckeyes the game? No, but would more carries have made things a much different situation? Absolutely. Dobbins is the Buckeyes’ best player on offense and he is a threat to score at any moment. How could you not want him involved? And how could a defense allow it if they have a way to stop it?
Urban Meyer wants balance out of his offense, but he shouldn’t want it out of the rushing distribution because there is no evidence that it is helping.
In fact, there is only evidence that it is hurting.
A quarterback who can run is a powerful weapon to have.
An offense that allows a defense to remove its best player, however, can become powerless in a hurry.
If Urban Meyer truly wants to see his running backs get more carries, then he can’t leave it up to the opposing defense to make it happen. He has to do it on his own, and he has to do it soon.
A record of 55-2 is too much information for it to be a coincidence, and so is 13-6.