Heading into Saturday’s regular season finale, Ohio State’s path to the playoff was clear. The Buckeyes needed to beat Michigan and Wisconsin, and Oklahoma, Clemson, and Alabama had to win their last two games as well. If that all happened, there was no realistic way OSU was going to get left out.
The Buckeyes took care of business, beating the Wolverines. The Sooners and Tigers cruised to easy wins. And then the Crimson Tide rolled into Auburn and got their faces kicked in by their archrival. So much for a clear path.
There has been a rush by many to proclaim the Buckeyes’ playoff chances either totally alive or totally dead, even if they win the Big Ten title on Saturday in Indianapolis. In reality, there’s no way to really know what’s going to happen because there’s no precedent for this in the previous three years of the playoff field.
No two-loss team has ever made the playoff field before. No conference has ever gotten two teams into the field before. No team has ever gotten curb-stomped by an opponent as middling as Iowa and ended up the top 4. No team has ever lost its last game and made it, either. Alabama has never been left out of the field. The Big Ten has never been left out, either.
If the Buckeyes beat Wisconsin and the decision comes down to Alabama or Ohio State, three of those six facts will no longer be true. But anyone who says they definitively know which ones they are is lying.
When this weekend’s playoff rankings are released, Auburn, Clemson, and Oklahoma will be among the top three. That much is almost certain. Alabama, Wisconsin, Georgia, Miami, and Ohio State will very likely be ranked from #4 to #8 in some order.
Even if the Buckeyes are only #8, it’s not a total disaster. They would need to jump four teams to finish in the top 4. Assuming OSU wins on Saturday, three of the teams ahead of them are guaranteed to lose (Wisconsin, either Clemson or Miami, and either Auburn or Georgia). The Bucks would then have an additional top-10 win on their resume and a conference championship to potentially vault them over the fourth team the would need to jump. That team is Alabama, whose resume is now final and not impressive.
The Tide’s best wins all season were against 9-3 LSU, who ranked #18 in last week’s Playoff Committee top-25, and 8-4 Mississippi State, who will fall from #14 after getting crushed by Ole Miss. They did not win the SEC West and won’t be SEC champions.
Saturday night after the Iron Bowl ended, many people compared 2017 Alabama to 2016’s conference title-less but Playoff-bound Ohio State team. But those Buckeyes had wins over three top-10 opponents. This year’s Tide have none.
Their case is much closer to the 2015 Ohio State team that lost a late game against #3 Michigan State, had #14 Michigan as its best win, missed the Big Ten title game and then got left out of the Playoff.
With a win this weekend, the 2017 Ohio State team could claim three wins more impressive than anything this year’s Tide can, having beaten #5 Wisconsin, #10 Penn State, and #16 Michigan State. They would have a conference championship.
But they would also have a 31-point loss to a 7-5 Iowa team, and the faint, but lingering odor from last year’s Playoff no-show against Clemson.
If the committee judges the teams based on who has a more impressive group of wins, the Buckeyes are in easily. If they decide it based on who has the worse set of losses, Ohio State is clearly out. If they weigh a mixture of both, and also take the value of a conference title into account, then… maybe. Definitely, maybe.
The Playoff Committee doesn’t take game attendance or TV ratings into account at all in their selections (*winks*). But if they did… and this is strictly hypothetical, of course… OSU’s massive fanbase would be a huge asset against just about any other competitor. But Alabama’s fans are just as insa… enthusiastic as the Buckeyes’ are, so that’s probably a wash as well.
You’ll probably get a pretty good idea what the committee intends to do on Selection Sunday by what they do with Mississippi State and LSU this week. If they hide behind the excuse that Nick Fitzgerald got hurt to prop up the cowbell-ringing corpse of the Bulldogs, that’s a solid indication that they’re setting the stage to put Alabama in. If they jump LSU over Michigan State, that would also be a telling sign that they have their shining cloth out for the Tide’s turd of a resume.
Ohio State still has to take care of business on Saturday against a very strong Wisconsin team in order for any of this to matter. But if they do, make plans to spend a nervous Sunday morning waiting on the couch.
Right now, everyone knows that the Playoff Committee will make history this year. We just don’t know how.