As Tom Orr pointed out this week, the team that runs the ball better in this game is the team that generally wins, and when it comes down to where I see the Ohio State offense’s best chances at success in this game, it is their running game.
The Buckeyes have the best running game in the Big Ten — averaging 252.6 yards per game on the ground. Against ranked teams, that number dips to 234.3. That’s still pretty darn good, and would rank just behind Wisconsin for third in the Big Ten.
Ohio State will trot out a four-headed monster in J.K. Dobbins, Mike Weber, J.T. Barrett, and Parris Campbell. This is a grouping unlike anything Michigan has seen before. With Weber and Barrett, the Buckeyes have the ability to run the power game whenever needed, and with Dobbins and Campbell, they have two of the most explosive players in the Big Ten swinging for the fences.
All four Buckeyes have rushes of at least 30 yards in B1G play.
Campbell might only have six carries on the season, but he is averaging 15.8 yards per carry. If the Wolverines forget about him, he will make them pay. And the simple fact that they can’t forget about him means that they will be a step slower when he is used in any kind of motion or run fake.
Dobbins is second in the Big Ten in rushing, averaging 99.0 yards rushing per game. His 1,089 yards rushing are just seven fewer than Weber had last season as a redshirt freshman.
In conference play, Weber leads the B1G with 6.89 yards per carry, and Dobbins is second at 6.88 yards per carry. Together they are averaging 165.6 yards rushing per game, which is 36 yards more per game than Michigan is allowing in conference play.
Michigan leads the Big Ten in tackles for loss per game (8.5), and they are going to tackle Ohio State behind the line of scrimmage in this one. The Buckeyes will look to run the ball in many different ways, and one way to make plays against this defense is to run it wide, as well as with some misdirection.
The problem with both of these, however, is that they can lead to big losses if UM defensive coordinator Don Brown has drawn up the proper play. And he draws up much more good than bad.
Middle linebacker Devin Bush can run sideline to sideline, and he arrives violently. Weakside linebacker Mike McCray is a veteran, but can be exploited to the edges. Viper/Sam linebacker Khaleke Hudson can make a ton of plays in the backfield, but can also disappear for long stretches.
Defensive ends Rashan Gary and Chase Winovich are active down the line of scrimmage. Gary is better against the run because he is a more immovable defender.
Michigan’s secondary will be aggressive as well, but Ohio State’s perimeter blocking has been outstanding this season and could lead to some big hits on Saturday.
Matchup to Watch
Michigan defensive tackle Maurice Hurst against everybody. Hurst will find himself matched up throughout the game against All-American center Billy Price, sophomore left guard Michael Jordan, and junior right guard Demetrius Knox. Hurst is the best defensive tackle in the Big Ten, but he may be going against the best interior the conference has to offer. He is going to make some plays. It’s unavoidable. The Buckeyes will need to limit those plays, but will also want to run the ball enough to wear down the Michigan front four, just as Wisconsin did last week.
Don’t Be Surprised If
Mike Weber ends up leading the charge. Weber is as healthy as he’s been all year, and more driven than ever. Weber has rushed for 270 yards on 20 carries the last two weeks and is proving to be an explosive home run hitter. He may also be a bit motivated to be playing back in his home state for the first time since he rushed for 111 yards at Michigan State last season.
Advantage
Ohio State. Michigan is allowing just 90.1 yards rushing per game to unranked opponents this year. Against ranked opponents, however, that number rises to 188 yards per game. The Wolverine defense can be boom or bust against talented running teams, and both teams will have some big plays here. The Wolverines’ ability to penetrate will lead to some big losses, and most of the time will effectively end a drive. Ohio State’s running game is averaging 330 yards rushing per game the last two weeks, so things are clicking as well as they have all season long. Michigan will need to unclick things on Saturday if they are going to win.