Michigan has the No. 3 rushing offense in the Big Ten, averaging 194.2 yards rushing per game. Against teams that currently have winning records, however, that average drops to 87.7 yards rushing per game.
In other words, Michigan makes their rushing noise against bad teams and can’t do much of anything against the best defenses they face.
This will be a problem for them on Saturday.
Junior running back Karan Higdon has been playing through an injury, which has hindered his effectiveness. After rushing for 158 yards against Rutgers and 200 against Minnesota, he has managed just 70 yards on 17 carries the last two weeks. He is one week healthier than he was a week ago, but that doesn’t mean he is at 100%.
Only three running backs in the Big Ten have more than Higdon’s four carries of 40 yards this season. He is a slashing runner in the hole and can go the distance with very little wiggle room.
Michigan could be helped with the return of Ty Isaac. Isaac has been cleared from injury and is practicing, but whether or not he would actually be a help is unknown. Sophomore Chris Evans has been getting a good number of touches in Isaac’s absence — he has double figure carries in each of the last three games, which is the longest such streak in his career.
The Wolverines are averaging 5.5 yards per carry against unranked teams and 2.2 yards per carry against ranked teams.
Ohio State is allowing just 86.3 yards rushing against ranked teams this year. Fortunately for Michigan, that number balloons to 124.4 yards per game against unranked teams.
The Buckeye linebacking situation has finally been settled, which will help greatly against this running game. Michigan will alternate carries looking for something that works. Higdon is the best of the bunch, but if he’s not 100%, then it will show. Evans has home-run potential, but he can lose as many yards as he gains. Ty Isaac might be fresh, but he needs a powerful offensive line to get him going.
Speaking of the offensive line, this is where Michigan’s chances begin to dwindle.
The Ohio State defensive line will want to terrorize the Wolverines’ quarterback(s), but if they can stop the run, the rest should follow.
Matchup to Watch
Jerome Baker vs. Karan Higdon. With Michigan utilizing a fullback or tight end on just about every run play, middle linebacker Tuf Borland is going to be busy dealing with blockers. That means Will linebacker Jerome Baker will need to make some tackles when the opportunity arises on Saturday. Higdon can be elusive, but Baker is one of the most athletic linebackers in the nation. Also keep an eye on freshman right guard Cesar Ruiz and defensive tackle Dre’Mont Jones. Jones is one of the quickest defensive tackles in the nation, and Ruiz is just getting his feet wet. The Buckeyes could make some plays in the backfield against this Michigan offensive line.
Don’t Be Surprised If
Michigan has to throw to run. Ohio State is going to set out to stop the run because the team that runs the ball better in this game usually wins. Perhaps the Wolverines will come out in this game against type, throwing the ball around (safely), in an effort to catch Ohio State off balance. Maybe an early score sets the tone for the Michigan offense, and keeps the Buckeyes from sitting on the running game.
Advantage
Ohio State. This is the only answer. Michigan’s offensive line is struggling right now and there is no passing game to make the defense back off. Yes, this can make a defense overconfident, but you’d think overconfidence would no longer be a thing after the loss at Iowa. Ohio State can do a lot of different things on defense, and they bring personnel into the game in waves. They do not tire, which can frustrate an offensive line that has trouble establishing the line of scrimmage.