August is a time for optimism for just about every college football program.
This is the time of year when a dozen different fanbases have convinced themselves they’re headed for a national championship.
Another dozen or so are pretty, preetttttaaaay sure they’ll at least have a shot at a College Football Playoff berth if just one or two little things breaks right.
Everyone who had a great season in 2017 is clearly headed for a perfect 2018. Every good 2017 team is destined for a great 2018, and all of the bad ones will at least be good.
Clearly, this is going to be the year that all 130 FBS teams earn a bowl bid.
Unfortunately for most of those fanbases, there’s bad news ahead.
According to math, it’s not possible for every team to put up a better record than a year ago. Disappointing, sure. But I asked someone who majored in something more useful than journalism just to be sure.
So who’s about to fall down college football’s version of a mineshaft? Here are five likely candidates to see their win total drop by at least three from 2017.
Washington State (9-4 in 2017): This might be the surest bet on this list to see a steep tumble in the standings this year.
After an offseason that ranged from tragic (the death of quarterback Tyler Hilinski) to the farcical (Mike Leach’s flirtation with the Tennessee job, as laid out in FOIA’d emails from UT’s then-athletic director John Currie), the Cougs are starting over this fall.
They lost six assistant coaches, including defensive coordinator Alex Grinch who jumped to Ohio State.
They also lost their record-setting quarterback Luke Falk, all-American defensive lineman Hercules Mata’afa, and a couple leading receivers.
The Cougars went 4-0 in one-score games last year, a stat that tends to even out over time.
This year, they have at least nine regular season games that are losable including road games at Wyoming, USC, Stanford, and Colorado, and home dates against Utah, Oregon, Cal, Arizona, and Washington.
A drop to 5-7 is a distinct possibility, and 4-8 isn’t out of the question.
TCU (11-3 in 2017): This probably seems like a #HOT #TAKE with TCU ranked 16th in the preseason coaches’ poll, but hear me out.
The Horned Frogs put up an 11-win season in 2017, one year after going 6-7.
Now, they have to almost completely overhaul their offense: New quarterback, new running back, two new wide receivers, and four new offensive linemen.
The schedule isn’t particularly friendly for a team that probably wants to keep things conservative off the bat.
They face Ohio State in Arlington in week three, then have to go to Texas in week four before hosting a dangerous Iowa State team to close September. Even a week two game at SMU isn’t a total gimme.
They get Oklahoma and Oklahoma State at home, but have to travel to West Virginia.
TCU could very well have a world-beating defense this year, but if the offense sputters, they’ll finish the year 8-4 or worse.
USC (11-3 in 2017): Speaking of teams ranked in the mid-teens in the coaches poll, the No. 15 Trojans will be favored in most, if not all, of their games until the regular season finale against Notre Dame. But they won’t win all of them.
According to reports, Clay Helton is seriously considering starting J.T. Daniels at quarterback this fall.
Daniels was a 5-star recruit, but should be playing high school football this fall. He graduated a year early and reclassified from the Class of 2019 to 2018.
If they go with him, he’s going to get a rude welcome to college. USC plays at Texas and at Stanford in weeks two and three. They also have road dates at Arizona, Utah, and UCLA before finishing the year at home against Notre Dame.
The best-case scenario here is the 2016 season where redshirt freshman Sam Darnold came off the bench to turn a terrible team into a Rose Bowl champion.
The more-realistic scenario has a guy who was born in 2000 struggling at times against good competition.
Daniels is on track to be the next great USC quarterback. But it’s not going to happen soon enough for the Trojans to win more than eight games this year.
Central Florida (13-0 in 2017): The defending national champions had an awful lot break right for them last year.
They were 4-0 in games decided by one score or less, faced Maryland the week the Terps lost their second quarterback to a season-ending injury early in the game, and got their toughest opponents USF and Memphis at home, including two games against the Tigers.
They actually had a game against Georgia Tech canceled due to a hurricane, or they might have ended up 14-0.
This year, they’ll have to do it without Scott Frost and a pair of their top receiving targets.
The schedule isn’t terrible, but isn’t quite as friendly as it was in 2017. They travel to Memphis and to USF. Instead of playing Florida International in non-conference play, they get Lane Kiffin and Florida Atlantic.
A home date against Pittsburgh isn’t a gimme, either.
The Knights should be a very good team again this year, and could finish the season ranked in the top-25. But whenever a program has a historically-great season, it’s safe to bet on some regression.
Look for UCF to end up no better than 10-3.
LSU (9-4 in 2017): Nothing against former Ohio State quarterback Joe Burrow, but the Tigers have bigger problems than he can solve.
The defense is replacing three of four guys up front, the majority of its contributors at linebacker, and a couple top defensive backs.
The kicking game was shaky last year.
There is no Leonard Fournette or Derrius Guice to turn to in the run game.
If Burrow is the starting quarterback, he has to overcome a long history of graduate transfers struggling to make an impact in their first seasons.
The schedule isn’t Murderer’s Row, but there aren’t a lot of gimmes on there, either. They open with a neutral site showdown against Miami, travel to Auburn in week three, play at Florida, Arkansas, and Texas A&M, and have Alabama, Mississippi State, and Georgia at home.
The only games that you can basically write in as wins right now are against Southeast Louisiana, Louisiana Tech, and Rice.
Burrow and Tigers should end up being a decent team, but that might only be enough to finish the year 6-6.