There is no kind of college football Saturday better than an Upset Saturday – as long as your team isn’t one of the ones getting upset.
Saturday was that kind of day for the Buckeyes and their fans.
While Ohio State was struggling, but ultimately winning against Indiana, many other ranked teams weren’t so lucky.
Joe Burrow and No. 5 LSU lost at Florida.
No. 7 Oklahoma’s defense looked even worse than the Buckeyes’ in a 48-45 loss to Texas.
Mississippi State drubbed No. 8 Auburn, 23-9.
No. 13 Kentucky fell in overtime at unranked Texas A&M.
No. 14 Stanford gave up 40 points at home against a Utah team that came in with only 48 total points in three games against FBS opponents.
No. 20 Michigan State lost at home to 2-3 Northwestern.
Iowa State picked up its second win of the year, winning at No. 25 Oklahoma State.
The Pac-12 is already on the verge of being totally out of the playoff picture.
Below, we’ll take a look at which teams still have a realistic shot to get in to the College Football Playoff, based on the criteria the committee has used before.
Spoiler alert: the number of Power 5 teams on the list dropped from 33 to 22 in just one day.
Here are the criteria we’re working with.
Your program is named Alabama
The Crimson Tide have made the Playoff in each of the four seasons. They did it in 2017 despite not winning their division, not winning their conference, and entering the postseason off of a two-score loss in their regular season finale.
The normal rules don’t apply.
Until you see the Tide on the outside of the Playoff looking in, just assume they have an auto-bid every year.
You are an undefeated Power 5 conference champ
No unbeaten Power 5 champion has ever been left out of the field. Major independents like Notre Dame would qualify as well.
You are a one-loss Power 5 conference champ
Oklahoma and Georgia got in this way in 2017, Clemson and Washington did in 2016, Alabama, Michigan State, and Oklahoma in 2015, and Ohio State, Alabama, and Oregon did in 2014.
TCU and Baylor didn’t in 2014, but they were co-champs and didn’t play a conference title game.
No team that has finished 12-1 with a Power 5 Conference Championship Game win has ever been left out.
You are a one-loss Power 5 team
If your regular season resume is strong enough and your loss is early enough in the year, you can overcome not winning your conference.
Ohio State got in this way in 2016, thanks to road wins over top-10 Oklahoma and Wisconsin and a home win over top-5 Michigan.
Wisconsin missed out after losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game in 2017.
Alabama got in this way in 2017, despite losing its last game and having zero wins over top-15 teams. (See “Your Program Is Alabama” above)
You are a two-loss Power 5 conference champ
No two-loss team has ever made the College Football Playoff, but they have gotten close. Penn State was an 11-2 Big Ten champ in 2016 and finished No. 5 in the rankings. Ohio State did the same thing in 2016.
Once you lose your second game, you are all but eliminated from the Playoff discussion.
In a 2007 scenario, where the season devolves into a Thunderdome of massive upsets and everyone has two losses, you’d probably have a decent shot. But that doesn’t happen often.
You are an undefeated Group of 5 conference champ
UCF went 12-0 and was ranked No. 12 in 2017. They were behind a three-loss Auburn team, and one spot ahead of 9-4 Stanford.
Houston went 12-1 in 2015 and was ranked No. 18.
This is ridiculous and unfair to basically half of FBS.
But theoretically, an unbeaten Group of 5 champ could get one of the top four spots.
The season started with all 130 FBS teams having at least some shot at making the final four. Now, only 33 teams are left in one of those groups that has a good chance to make it. Three more from the Group of 5 are at least theoretically in the picture.
So who is still alive for the 2018 College Football Playoff race?
Unbeaten Power 5 Teams (8 remaining)
Alabama, Clemson, Colorado, Georgia, NC State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, West Virginia
Kentucky, LSU, Oklahoma all lost their first games on Saturday, dropping this from 11 to 8.
Notre Dame has an easy schedule from here on out. Colorado and NC State seem like they’ll be out of this category very soon.
One-loss Power 5 Teams (14 remaining)
Duke, Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, LSU, Miami, Michigan, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, Texas, Washington, Washington State, Wisconsin
Auburn, Boston College, Cal, Indiana, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Stanford, Syracuse, and Virginia Tech all lost their second games this weekend.
It now stands at 14, a week after consisting of 22 teams.
Unbeaten Group of 5 Teams (3 remaining)
Cincinnati, UCF, USF
All three of the AAC teams that were in this category last week are still unbeaten.
The only three remaining non-Power 5 teams are all from the AAC, and they will all play each other in a three-week span from November 10-23.