One week after the Buckeyes’ chances at the College Football Playoff were basically dead, a 62-39 demolition of arch-rival Michigan may have brought them back to life.
Ohio State is now headed to Indianapolis to face Northwestern for the Big Ten Championship.
If the Buckeyes lose that game, they’ll almost certainly head to the Peach Bowl or Fiesta Bowl. And after LSU’s 74-72 loss in 7 overtimes on Saturday, they likely wouldn’t get a chance to play Joe Burrow in the Peach Bowl, either.
Beat the Wildcats and then things get interesting.
Here’s a look at how things could shake out on conference championship weekend and what it would mean for the Buckeyes.
Let’s lay down some ground rules.
First, Alabama is in. Whether or not you think that’s fair, it’s probably just a reality.
Second, Notre Dame is in. At 12-0 without a conference championship game to play, the Irish are a virtual lock to get one of the top four spots.
Third, Clemson is in with a win in the ACC title game against Pitt. It’s probably at least 50/50 that they would make it even with a loss to the Panthers, but if they win, they’re in.
That means barring a huge upset, three of the four spots are very likely spoken for.
So what would OSU have to do to claim that final berth in the College Football Playoff?
Step 1: Beat Northwestern
This should be obvious, but if they don’t win the Big Ten Championship game – possibly with some style points – they’re not getting in. A 17-14 win would probably require a lot more help from other teams than a 42-17 victory.
Step 2: Alabama beats Georgia
This may seem odd at first glance, but you should be screaming “ROLL TIDE” at the TV all throughout the SEC Championship Game.
You should actually do that all the time at random moments, just because it’s kind of fun.
Big tax refund? ROLL TIDE!
Get a raise at work? ROLL TIDE!
Hit a series of green lights on your way home from work? ROLL TIDE!
But I digress.
If you assume the Tide is in whether they win or lose, the Buckeyes should want them to win. If they do, that should knock Georgia out of the Playoff race.
A Georgia win would be the worst possible outcome, not only for OSU, but the rest of the country as well. That would almost certainly mean another year with the SEC making up half of the Playoff field.
Step 3: Texas beats Oklahoma
This isn’t a 100% necessity, but it would definitely help.
An Oklahoma win turns the race for the final Playoff spot into a beauty contest between the Buckeyes and Sooners. Ohio State would have both the best win and the worse loss.
Which team would the Committee pick at that point? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
On the other hand, a Texas win would mean that every Big 12 team has at least two losses. That would basically knock the league out of the Playoff conversation.
The Pac-12 is already out, thanks to Washington’s win over Washington State on Friday.
If the Big 12 is out, too, that would leave one spot for the SEC champion, one spot for the ACC champion (assuming it’s Clemson), one spot for Notre Dame, and one spot for the only other 1-loss Power 5 team.
If you need a hint on who that would be, they just beat their rival 62-39 on Saturday.
Ok. Cool. Hook ’em.
What about UCF?
Fair or not, the Playoff Committee has spent all season like a bouncer at a fancy club who keeps checking his clipboard and telling the Knights “you’re not on the list.”
They’re 12-0 and ranked No. 9 in the nation at the moment.
UCF jumped Ohio State last week, but that was more about how bad the Buckeyes looked at Maryland than anything UCF did.
It’s almost a lock that OSU will leapfrog the Knights again this week, and remain ahead of them next week with a win against Northwestern.
It doesn’t help that UCF’s star quarterback McKenzie Milton suffered a gruesome knee injury during his team’s 38-10 win over USF.
Without Milton, the Knights are a lot less explosive, and probably even less appealing to the Committee.
Again, it’s not really fair, but that’s how things look right now.
What happens if the Buckeyes don’t make the Playoff?
If OSU beats Northwestern on Saturday, but doesn’t wind up in the top-four of the Playoff rankings, they would go to the Rose Bowl to play the winner of the Pac-12 Championship.
That would either be a matchup against Washington or Utah.
As far as consolation prizes go, a New Year’s Day in Pasadena is about as good as it gets.