THIS IS NOT A PLAYOFF-CALIBER OHIO STATE TEAM, YOU IDIOT! THIS IS STUPID! STOP WRITING THIS EVERY WEEK!
There. Now that’s out of the way, and you don’t have to post it in the comments below.
That should free you up to take a deep breath, survey the college football landscape, and realize that pretty much everyone other than Alabama is flawed this year.
Nearly half of the top-20 teams in the initial College Football Playoff rankings lost this week, and the Buckeyes weren’t among them.
No. 3 LSU, No. 9 Kentucky, No. 11 Florida, No. 14 Penn State, No. 15 Utah, No. 16 Iowa, No. 17 Texas, and No. 20 Texas A&M all lost. Many got blown out at home – in some cases by unranked opponents.
No. 7 Oklahoma narrowly escaped at Texas Tech, which was playing without its starting quarterback. No. 8 Washington State needed a late score to beat a 5-4 Cal team at home.
Here’s what that means: Alabama is an unstoppable death machine and basically everyone else is flawed in some way.
Per the agreed-upon rules, four teams will make the Playoff. Alabama only gets one of those spots. That means there are three more available, and the Buckeyes are part of an ever-shrinking list of teams that could be a part of that group.
Until the Buckeyes lose another game, or the Playoff Committee decides to forego the four team format in favor of a two-week Coronation Ceremony for the Tide, they’re still a part of the discussion.
Here are the criteria we’re working with.
Your program is named Alabama
The Crimson Tide have made the Playoff in each of the four seasons. They did it in 2017 despite not winning their division, not winning their conference, having zero wins over top-15 teams, and entering the postseason off of a two-score loss in their regular season finale.
The normal rules don’t apply.
Until you see the Tide on the outside of the Playoff looking in, just assume they have an auto-bid every year.
You are an undefeated Power 5 conference champ
No unbeaten Power 5 champion has ever been left out of the field. Major independents like Notre Dame would qualify as well.
You are a one-loss Power 5 conference champ
Oklahoma and Georgia got in this way in 2017, Clemson and Washington did in 2016, Alabama, Michigan State, and Oklahoma in 2015, and Ohio State, Alabama, and Oregon did in 2014.
TCU and Baylor didn’t in 2014, but they were co-champs and didn’t play a conference title game.
No team that has finished 12-1 with a Power 5 Conference Championship Game win has ever been left out.
You are a one-loss Power 5 team
If your regular season resume is strong enough and your loss is early enough in the year, you can overcome not winning your conference.
Ohio State got in this way in 2016, thanks to road wins over top-10 Oklahoma and Wisconsin and a home win over top-5 Michigan.
Wisconsin missed out after losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game in 2017.
Alabama got in this way in 2017, despite losing its last game and having zero wins over top-15 teams. (See “Your Program Is Alabama” above)
You are a two-loss Power 5 conference champ
No two-loss team has ever made the College Football Playoff, but they have gotten close. Penn State was an 11-2 Big Ten champ in 2016 and finished No. 5 in the rankings. Ohio State did the same thing in 2016.
Once you lose your second game, you are all but eliminated from the Playoff discussion.
In a 2007 scenario, where the season devolves into a Thunderdome of massive upsets and everyone has two losses, you’d probably have a decent shot. But that doesn’t happen often.
We’re probably one more Upset Saturday away from having to start tracking those as well.
You are an undefeated Group of 5 conference champ
UCF went 12-0 and was ranked No. 12 in 2017. They were behind a three-loss Auburn team, and one spot ahead of 9-4 Stanford.
Houston went 12-1 in 2015 and was ranked No. 18.
This is ridiculous and unfair to basically half of FBS.
But theoretically, an unbeaten Group of 5 champ could get one of the top four spots.
The season started with all 130 FBS teams having at least some shot at making the final four. Now, only 9 teams are left in one of those groups that has a good chance to make it. One more from the Group of 5 is at least theoretically in the picture.
So who is still alive for the 2018 College Football Playoff race?
Unbeaten Power 5 Teams (3 remaining)
Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame
For the second week in a row, this number held steady. Alabama and Clemson absolutely destroyed LSU and Louisville, respectively. Notre Dame struggled with Northwestern for a while before winning 31-21.
One-loss Power 5 Teams (6 remaining)
Georgia, Michigan, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Washington State, West Virginia
Kentucky and LSU were thoroughly beaten out of this group this weekend.
Unbeaten Group of 5 Teams (1 remaining)
UCF
Only the defending national champions are left, and should crack the top-10 of the Playoff rankings this week.