The toughest team will win on Saturday.
The smartest team will win on Saturday.
The most physical team will win on Saturday.
Coaches love to spout their own theories on how and why their team is going to win the Ohio State vs. Michigan game.
This week Urban Meyer said, “we have a saying around here: The most prepared team will win the game.”
But history has shown that one factor is more likely than any other to decide whether Ohio State or Michigan will win.
Whoever runs the ball better in The Game, will win The Game.
Going back to 2002, the team that has rushed for more yards per carry in The Game has won. Every single time.
Earlier this week, Gerd pointed out that using raw rushing yards instead of yards per carry, the streak is even longer.
The last time Ohio State beat Michigan while being outrushed by the Wolverines was 1994. The team that wins the rushing battle has won the last 18 games.
— Tony Gerdeman (@TonyGerdeman) November 22, 2018
But total rushing yardage can be biased by the state of the game. If you’re winning, you’re more likely to run. If you’re losing, you’re more likely to pass.
Yards per rush is just straight-up “which team is running the ball better.” It’s also a pretty good barometer of which team is winning the battle at the line of scrimmage.
If you can do that, you’re probably going to win the game, too.
Since 2002, Ohio State has rushed for as many or more yards per carry than Michigan in 14 games. They are 14-0 in those matchups.
Michigan has only outrushed the Buckeyes on a per-carry basis twice: 2003 and 2011. They are 2-0 in those seasons.
So it’s not a big surprise that establishing a ground attack is at the top of the Buckeyes’ to-do list for this weekend.
“It’s huge for us,” said senior wide receiver Parris Campbell. “They’re a huge blitz team. We’ll have to pick those up, but I think the run game will be very important. I think we’ll prepare the right way and come Saturday we’ll be ready.”
Senior offensive lineman Isaiah Prince said J.K.Dobbins’ 203-yard day against Maryland was a key to that win, and it’s going to be even more critical this Saturday.
“It was important for us to establish a run game (against the Terps),” Prince said. “Running the ball is important and you can’t throw the ball if you don’t run the ball.”
Can the Buckeyes stretch their win streak over Michigan to a school-record seven years in a row?
Just watch the rushing stats. They’ll tell you everything you need to know.