Welcome to quite possibly the most unsettling edition of Staff Picks of all time.
After Ohio State’s loss at Iowa last week, how do you decide what to expect from the Buckeyes this week?
You probably just throw a dart at a wall full of situations and outcomes. At least that’s what I did.
What did everyone else do? Let’s find out.
Mike Meihls
I legitimately have no idea how this game is going to go. Michigan State always plays Ohio State tough, at least since Mark Dantonio got to town. I don’t know if it’s because he had been in Columbus and has some secret motivation trick for the Buckeyes, or what. But he has definitely established himself as a thorn in the side of everyone in Scarlet & Gray.
As for the 2017 Spartans, they don’t have Lima, OH native Tyler O’Conner running the offense anymore, and they have definitely shown that last season’s abysmal record was the fluke, not the norm. But unlike previous Dantonio teams, this current edition lacks the dynamic run game on offense, and that’ll hurt Sparty against the Buckeyes. We know Greg Schiano took the blame for OSU’s choke-job in Iowa, and will be looking to make amends with Buckeye Nation. Expect the defensive line to step up and showcase their dominance.
As for the offense, Sparty hasn’t exactly excelled in forcing turnovers this year, only getting 8 interceptions and 6 fumbles. Expect the sure-handed J.T. Barrett show to return, with a lot more J.K. Dobbins in the backfield too. Getting stomped in the mouth last week should help the offense to return to what works, and that means a strong running game, mesh routes, and RPOs.
This could be either team winning this game, and if this game is in East Lansing, I might actually go the other direction. But in Columbus, I’ll take the Buckeyes by 2 scores.
Ohio State 24, Michigan State 14
Chip Minnich
The momentum is clearly on the side of Michigan State. Michigan State has defeated Ohio State the last two times the game was in Ohio Stadium, and the Spartans are coming off a psychologically-boosting win over Penn State. Listening to Hondo Carpenter on the latest edition of Silver Bullets Podcast, as well as listening to Tony and Shannon on the latest episode of Accost The Field, should make Ohio State fans very uneasy.
For some strange reason, the oddsmakers have installed Ohio State as 17-point favorites (!), despite that point spread being substantially larger than any Ohio State victory over Michigan State since 2012. Even the national championship team only defeated the Spartans by a score of 49-37, and that was an Ohio State secondary that was a core defensive strength, not a question mark, as this team’s secondary has played this season.
If Michigan State has learned anything from the Iowa game films, the primary targets would seem to be Spartans TE Matt Sokol, as well as RB L.J. Scott, if they can isolate those players on Ohio State’s linebackers and safeties. Defensively, Ohio State needs to prevent Spartans QB Brian Lewerke from getting outside of the pocket on 3rd downs.
Perhaps I am being too much of an Ohio State homer, but I think Urban Meyer is going to have the Buckeyes ready to go when this one kicks off at high noon. Yes, I know that the road team has been victorious in this series since 2007, and yes, I believe Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio will have the Spartans primed for this one, but I am anticipating another quality performance from J.T. Barrett, as well as a better defensive performance than what Ohio State fans witnessed in Iowa City.
Ohio State 27, Michigan State 24
Brandon Zimmerman
Honestly, I have no idea what is going to happen. There are so many questions and no one has those answers. Will the offense be allowed to do what has worked most of the year? Or will they revert to their Tecmo ways and feature about 4 plays with a few different variations of them? Will J.K. Dobbins be allowed to be a featured running back? Will they try to throw the ball down the field with relative ease only to stop for no apparent reason? Will the linebackers look like they are receiving different play calls than the rest of the defense? Will a certain linebacker whose name rhymes with Berome Jaker play with anger and purpose or will he look like he is going through a pre-game walk-through again? So many questions and none of us will know before it is too late.
We have heard all week how coaches want to get J.K. the ball. We’ve heard how the defense takes those runs away. We’ve even heard how if they force feed J.K. the ball, it will only lead to 3rd and 8. What it really comes down to is this, Urban Meyer needs to trust his offensive coordinator in big games. It is not a coincidence you see the same game plan year after year no matter who the offensive coordinator is. It is also not a coincidence you’ve seen a completely different game plan against the Maryland’s of the world. Kevin Wilson has never had issues feeding his running backs…even when he had two very good backs. None of this is coincidence.
As far as prediction, I’m not sure. I don’t think Michigan State is a great team but the point spread seems a little ridiculous. I’m convinced Ohio State at its best against Michigan State at its best would lead to an easy Buckeye victory. I’m not sure we will see Ohio State at its best though.
Ohio State 24, Michigan State 23
Clair Crawford
If your concerns about the discipline of the Buckeyes outweighed your optimism for Urban Meyer’s coaching ability, you were in the minority. We were wrong last Saturday in Iowa City. Searching for a port in the rage storm after what will now be known as the Iowa City Massacre, I found rest in the fact that the Spartans run a very similar offense to what the Buckeyes faced against Iowa.
I know that might sound like I’m a glutton for punishment but hear me out. Of Meyer’s 24 losses in his tenure as a head coach only four of those losses occurred directly after another loss. The man is a professional wagon circler. Although the Spartans are traveling to Columbus like the Hot Gates, the series has not been kind to the home team as of late. You don’t have to have a long memory to recall an impassioned Zeke Elliot post game in 2015.
The 2015 loss and the Iowa loss the Buckeyes suffered had two eerie similarities. In both games the running game was all but abandoned. OSU Offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson and Urban Meyer have both mentioned this week that true Freshman J.K. Dobbins will have to have more carries in order for the offense to be successful. As long as Ohio State can run a balanced offense and a disciplined defense and keep the penalties to a minimum, they will ring the victory bell.
Buckeyes 24, Spartans 10
Tom Orr
Virtually nothing would shock me on Saturday. OSU could come out angry, assert its dominance and cover the 16-point spread. OSU could come out lethargic in front of 15,000 empty seats and lose by three touchdowns.
It could just be another low-scoring Buckeye/Sparty defensive battle. The OSU offense could kick it into gear while the defense still struggles and it could turn into a 31-27 type game. Short of J.K. Dobbins getting 20 carries, I’m ready for just about anything.
After a game as ludicrously unpredictable as Iowa was, we’re all left just guessing at some of the biggest questions for this weekend. How is J.T. Barrett’s confidence after throwing four picks? What on earth happened to the defense, and how much can the coaches correct in just one week? Can this team get mentally ready to play after seeing its national title goals go up in smoke?
Honestly, the thing that gives me the most pause is the spread. It’s so screamingly obvious that you should take Sparty +16 that it feels like someone somewhere must know something. I have no idea. But I’m not particularly confident.
Michigan State 23, Ohio State 17
Caroline Rice
I would be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about this game. Every year, this game makes me nervous. These teams have such a history that no matter what, any team could win, any year. It is always a competitive game, and this year, they have the same record, and are both meeting as AP Top 20 teams. This game is essentially for the Big Ten East Division title, so there are high stakes in this game.
Although the Buckeyes have won 10 out of the last 13 match-ups, the Spartans are the only Big Ten team to ever beat the Urban Meyer Buckeyes twice. The last two meetings between these teams has been decided by four points…combined. To make this game even more interesting, the home team in this matchup has not won since 2007.
It’s hard to say what exactly went wrong for Ohio State last week, but the Buckeyes know they have to win this game. After last week I am expecting a strong performance from the Buckeyes on both sides of the ball because they know what they have to prove. I think this week the Buckeyes will look like the team we are used to seeing. The Rushmen will be prepared for the Spartans offense, and I’m expecting a big game from the Ohio State wideouts.
The difficult part of this game is that the Buckeyes, ranked fourth nationally in total offense, are facing the third-ranked rush defense in the country. Meyer has been saying he wants to get J.K. Dobbins the ball more, and I think it will be interesting to see him against a defense like this, which held Saquon Barkley to only 68 yards. If the Buckeyes show up this week, I think they can get it done. The one thing I know for sure is that this will be a good game.
Ohio State 38, Michigan State 21
Tony Gerdeman
I’m completely torn. On the one hand I’m thinking that there is no way Ohio State can play that poorly two weeks in a row. On the other hand, I’m thinking that if they can play that poorly in a given week, then they just aren’t that good. Michigan State’s pass defense is better than Penn State’s, and so is their run defense. I don’t expect the Buckeyes to run wild this week, but they will have to hit some downfield shots — or turn short passes into big gains.
Michigan State should not be able to run the ball, which will make them one dimensional, and a one-dimensional offense is one that this Ohio State defense can contain.
Ironically, with all of the focus on J.T. Barrett carrying the ball being a bad thing, I think he may be OSU’s best running option this week. However the Buckeyes can move the chains is a good play. Whoever rushes for more yards between the quarterbacks will win. I’ll side with Barrett this week.
Ohio State 20, Michigan State 16
Kyle Morgan
Rarely does a team ranked so high exude such uncertainty from week to week like the 2017 version of the Buckeyes. With a Big Ten championship still in play, the game against Sparty is proving to be a season-defining game. Unfortunately, the Ohio State offense resembles a “choose your own adventure” that I used to read as a kid, so it only makes sense to write a prediction in such a manner.
The Buckeyes are at their best offensively when they are aggressive and use tempo to their advantage. Multiple receiver formations, an H-Back aligned near Barrett and a steady dose of Run-Pass options to keep the defense off balance has been their recipe for success this season. If Wilson and Day are creative, then skip ahead to prediction #2. Continue reading Prediction #1 if the Buckeyes continue to lack creativity offensively.
Prediction #1
Unfortunately, the Buckeyes are only as good as their last performance, which is cause for concern. We saw a panicked team last week versus Iowa when only down 14 at halftime. The same team that trailed by a greater margin the week before and came out victorious. I was critical of the offensive game plan during the past week as I felt the lack of creativity aided in the defensive struggles of a tired and beaten unit. If Barrett is the leading rusher, it is going to be a long night reading The Ozone Legacy Board wondering what could have been this season. The Buckeyes do not have the defensive capability of shutting down solid teams that is crucial to keeping an inept offense in the game. Ohio State loses a close one at home, 24-21.
Prediction #2:
Michigan State has struggled defending the pass this season, and if Barrett is his usual self, and taking what the defense is giving him while allowing his playmakers to create yards after the catch, then there are plenty of yards to be had on Saturday. Defensively, we have seen Jerome Baker rebound from a difficult game in the past and he has shown a concerted effort at being disciplined in the game following the lemon, something that absolutely has to happen against the misdirection of Sparty in order to be successful. Michigan State does not have the firepower to put points on the board consistently, leading me to believe a “pissed off and hungry” Buckeyes team can win.
Ohio State 31, Michigan State 17