Welcome to quite possibly the most unsettling edition of Staff Picks of all time.
After Ohio State’s loss at Iowa last week, how do you decide what to expect from the Buckeyes this week?
You probably just throw a dart at a wall full of situations and outcomes. At least that’s what I did.
What did everyone else do? Let’s find out.
Mike Meihls
I legitimately have no idea how this game is going to go. Michigan State always plays Ohio State tough, at least since Mark Dantonio got to town. I don’t know if it’s because he had been in Columbus and has some secret motivation trick for the Buckeyes, or what. But he has definitely established himself as a thorn in the side of everyone in Scarlet & Gray.
As for the 2017 Spartans, they don’t have Lima, OH native Tyler O’Conner running the offense anymore, and they have definitely shown that last season’s abysmal record was the fluke, not the norm. But unlike previous Dantonio teams, this current edition lacks the dynamic run game on offense, and that’ll hurt Sparty against the Buckeyes. We know Greg Schiano took the blame for OSU’s choke-job in Iowa, and will be looking to make amends with Buckeye Nation. Expect the defensive line to step up and showcase their dominance.
As for the offense, Sparty hasn’t exactly excelled in forcing turnovers this year, only getting 8 interceptions and 6 fumbles. Expect the sure-handed J.T. Barrett show to return, with a lot more J.K. Dobbins in the backfield too. Getting stomped in the mouth last week should help the offense to return to what works, and that means a strong running game, mesh routes, and RPOs.
This could be either team winning this game, and if this game is in East Lansing, I might actually go the other direction. But in Columbus, I’ll take the Buckeyes by 2 scores.
Ohio State 24, Michigan State 14
Chip Minnich
The momentum is clearly on the side of Michigan State. Michigan State has defeated Ohio State the last two times the game was in Ohio Stadium, and the Spartans are coming off a psychologically-boosting win over Penn State. Listening to Hondo Carpenter on the latest edition of Silver Bullets Podcast, as well as listening to Tony and Shannon on the latest episode of Accost The Field, should make Ohio State fans very uneasy.
For some strange reason, the oddsmakers have installed Ohio State as 17-point favorites (!), despite that point spread being substantially larger than any Ohio State victory over Michigan State since 2012. Even the national championship team only defeated the Spartans by a score of 49-37, and that was an Ohio State secondary that was a core defensive strength, not a question mark, as this team’s secondary has played this season.
If Michigan State has learned anything from the Iowa game films, the primary targets would seem to be Spartans TE Matt Sokol, as well as RB L.J. Scott, if they can isolate those players on Ohio State’s linebackers and safeties. Defensively, Ohio State needs to prevent Spartans QB Brian Lewerke from getting outside of the pocket on 3rd downs.
Perhaps I am being too much of an Ohio State homer, but I think Urban Meyer is going to have the Buckeyes ready to go when this one kicks off at high noon. Yes, I know that the road team has been victorious in this series since 2007, and yes, I believe Michigan State head coach Mark Dantonio will have the Spartans primed for this one, but I am anticipating another quality performance from J.T. Barrett, as well as a better defensive performance than what Ohio State fans witnessed in Iowa City.
Ohio State 27, Michigan State 24
Brandon Zimmerman
Honestly, I have no idea what is going to happen. There are so many questions and no one has those answers. Will the offense be allowed to do what has worked most of the year? Or will they revert to their Tecmo ways and feature about 4 plays with a few different variations of them? Will J.K. Dobbins be allowed to be a featured running back? Will they try to throw the ball down the field with relative ease only to stop for no apparent reason? Will the linebackers look like they are receiving different play calls than the rest of the defense? Will a certain linebacker whose name rhymes with Berome Jaker play with anger and purpose or will he look like he is going through a pre-game walk-through again? So many questions and none of us will know before it is too late.
We have heard all week how coaches want to get J.K. the ball. We’ve heard how the defense takes those runs away. We’ve even heard how if they force feed J.K. the ball, it will only lead to 3rd and 8. What it really comes down to is this, Urban Meyer needs to trust his offensive coordinator in big games. It is not a coincidence you see the same game plan year after year no matter who the offensive coordinator is. It is also not a coincidence you’ve seen a completely different game plan against the Maryland’s of the world. Kevin Wilson has never had issues feeding his running backs…even when he had two very good backs. None of this is coincidence.
As far as prediction, I’m not sure. I don’t think Michigan State is a great team but the point spread seems a little ridiculous. I’m convinced Ohio State at its best against Michigan State at its best would lead to an easy Buckeye victory. I’m not sure we will see Ohio State at its best though.
Ohio State 24, Michigan State 23
Clair Crawford
If your concerns about the discipline of the Buckeyes outweighed your optimism for Urban Meyer’s coaching ability, you were in the minority. We were wrong last Saturday in Iowa City. Searching for a port in the rage storm after what will now be known as the Iowa City Massacre, I found rest in the fact that the Spartans run a very similar offense to what the Buckeyes faced against Iowa.
I know that might sound like I’m a glutton for punishment but hear me out. Of Meyer’s 24 losses in his tenure as a head coach only four of those losses occurred directly after another loss. The man is a professional wagon circler. Although the Spartans are traveling to Columbus like the Hot Gates, the series has not been kind to the home team as of late. You don’t have to have a long memory to recall an impassioned Zeke Elliot post game in 2015.
The 2015 loss and the Iowa loss the Buckeyes suffered had two eerie similarities. In both games the running game was all but abandoned. OSU Offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson and Urban Meyer have both mentioned this week that true Freshman J.K. Dobbins will have to have more carries in order for the offense to be successful. As long as Ohio State can run a balanced offense and a disciplined defense and keep the penalties to a minimum, they will ring the victory bell.
Buckeyes 24, Spartans 10
Tom Orr
Virtually nothing would shock me on Saturday. OSU could come out angry, assert its dominance and cover the 16-point spread. OSU could come out lethargic in front of 15,000 empty seats and lose by three touchdowns.
It could just be another low-scoring Buckeye/Sparty defensive battle. The OSU offense could kick it into gear while the defense still struggles and it could turn into a 31-27 type game. Short of J.K. Dobbins getting 20 carries, I’m ready for just about anything.
After a game as ludicrously unpredictable as Iowa was, we’re all left just guessing at some of the biggest questions for this weekend. How is J.T. Barrett’s confidence after throwing four picks? What on earth happened to the defense, and how much can the coaches correct in just one week? Can this team get mentally ready to play after seeing its national title goals go up in smoke?
Honestly, the thing that gives me the most pause is the spread. It’s so screamingly obvious that you should take Sparty +16 that it feels like someone somewhere must know something. I have no idea. But I’m not particularly confident.
Michigan State 23, Ohio State 17
Caroline Rice
I would be lying if I said I wasn’t worried about this game. Every year, this game makes me nervous. These teams have such a history that no matter what, any team could win, any year. It is always a competitive game, and this year, they have the same record, and are both meeting as AP Top 20 teams. This game is essentially for the Big Ten East Division title, so there are high stakes in this game.
Although the Buckeyes have won 10 out of the last 13 match-ups, the Spartans are the only Big Ten team to ever beat the Urban Meyer Buckeyes twice. The last two meetings between these teams has been decided by four points…combined. To make this game even more interesting, the home team in this matchup has not won since 2007.
It’s hard to say what exactly went wrong for Ohio State last week, but the Buckeyes know they have to win this game. After last week I am expecting a strong performance from the Buckeyes on both sides of the ball because they know what they have to prove. I think this week the Buckeyes will look like the team we are used to seeing. The Rushmen will be prepared for the Spartans offense, and I’m expecting a big game from the Ohio State wideouts.
The difficult part of this game is that the Buckeyes, ranked fourth nationally in total offense, are facing the third-ranked rush defense in the country. Meyer has been saying he wants to get J.K. Dobbins the ball more, and I think it will be interesting to see him against a defense like this, which held Saquon Barkley to only 68 yards. If the Buckeyes show up this week, I think they can get it done. The one thing I know for sure is that this will be a good game.
Ohio State 38, Michigan State 21
Tony Gerdeman
I’m completely torn. On the one hand I’m thinking that there is no way Ohio State can play that poorly two weeks in a row. On the other hand, I’m thinking that if they can play that poorly in a given week, then they just aren’t that good. Michigan State’s pass defense is better than Penn State’s, and so is their run defense. I don’t expect the Buckeyes to run wild this week, but they will have to hit some downfield shots — or turn short passes into big gains.
Michigan State should not be able to run the ball, which will make them one dimensional, and a one-dimensional offense is one that this Ohio State defense can contain.
Ironically, with all of the focus on J.T. Barrett carrying the ball being a bad thing, I think he may be OSU’s best running option this week. However the Buckeyes can move the chains is a good play. Whoever rushes for more yards between the quarterbacks will win. I’ll side with Barrett this week.
Ohio State 20, Michigan State 16
Kyle Morgan
Rarely does a team ranked so high exude such uncertainty from week to week like the 2017 version of the Buckeyes. With a Big Ten championship still in play, the game against Sparty is proving to be a season-defining game. Unfortunately, the Ohio State offense resembles a “choose your own adventure” that I used to read as a kid, so it only makes sense to write a prediction in such a manner.
The Buckeyes are at their best offensively when they are aggressive and use tempo to their advantage. Multiple receiver formations, an H-Back aligned near Barrett and a steady dose of Run-Pass options to keep the defense off balance has been their recipe for success this season. If Wilson and Day are creative, then skip ahead to prediction #2. Continue reading Prediction #1 if the Buckeyes continue to lack creativity offensively.
Prediction #1
Unfortunately, the Buckeyes are only as good as their last performance, which is cause for concern. We saw a panicked team last week versus Iowa when only down 14 at halftime. The same team that trailed by a greater margin the week before and came out victorious. I was critical of the offensive game plan during the past week as I felt the lack of creativity aided in the defensive struggles of a tired and beaten unit. If Barrett is the leading rusher, it is going to be a long night reading The Ozone Legacy Board wondering what could have been this season. The Buckeyes do not have the defensive capability of shutting down solid teams that is crucial to keeping an inept offense in the game. Ohio State loses a close one at home, 24-21.
Prediction #2:
Michigan State has struggled defending the pass this season, and if Barrett is his usual self, and taking what the defense is giving him while allowing his playmakers to create yards after the catch, then there are plenty of yards to be had on Saturday. Defensively, we have seen Jerome Baker rebound from a difficult game in the past and he has shown a concerted effort at being disciplined in the game following the lemon, something that absolutely has to happen against the misdirection of Sparty in order to be successful. Michigan State does not have the firepower to put points on the board consistently, leading me to believe a “pissed off and hungry” Buckeyes team can win.
Ohio State 31, Michigan State 17
Don’t feel badly, Tom Orr. I took MSU and the points. I didn’t figure on our running backs getting three times as many touches as J.T. Something they should try more often.
I can’t believe Tom thought the Buckeyes were going to lose. I always knew they were going to win. That’s why I predicted a blowout, but my prediction has many, many typos.
My guess is that what lacked last week was their focus and urgency in preparation after an emotional win. That along with Iowa having that game circled on their calendar and was hyper focused leading to the ambush.
That said I think we come in much more focused and prepared to deal with what MSU has planned. I think we will see more pressure on the qb and we can keep them under 40 points. On offense we have to pass the ball to open up the run game.
Winner of this game wins the East plays Wisconsin in Indy. That is what is on the line. Both teams will be geeked up. More talented team will win. OSU 41-39.
I honestly dont see this game being that close. I wouldnt be surprised if they cover.
All you folks worried about the b10 east we need to give it up. We will lose this game and against Michigan for 4 losses. Not gonna matter
OSU 27-17..but like many others said–nothing would shock me…All I know is that MSU under Dantonio plays us tough with better teams than now..if OSU comes out focused and pissed off..and stop the stinking shooting themselves in the foot syndrome , then OSU will prevail..still a LOT to play for—.go Bucks!
Urban was cooked at Florida. Look at these last three years vs the first three years. It was Tom Herman all along (shhhh…)
Hot take.
I don’t think I’ve EVER done this before. Pick against the Buckeyes.
MSU 44
Ohio State 17
If the Buckeyes can’t beat these clowns by 21+ points, Urban Meyer should quit.
Some pretty rosy predictions from the Staff. Not sure I can buy in.
It’s one thing to lose by 31 to the eventual national champions or by 15 to a solid team that just might make the playoff this year.
It’s another to get blown out by a sorry-a**ed 5 – 3 team that really hadn’t shown a single thing offensively all year until the Buckeye Defense made them look like, well, one of Meyer’s teams from about 11 years ago. The Buckeyes as a team haven’t played a game that bad since Happy Valley in 1994, and not a game that bad against a TEAM that bad in much longer than that.
Now you get a Spartan team that’s very similar except their defense is even better and runs the same style offense.
Yes, Meyer doesn’t lose back-to-back often and yes, there’s certainly reasons to think that the Buckeyes were just “hung over” vs. the Hawkeyes – remember Penn State lost to these Spartans also after that thriller of a game 2 weeks ago.
Like the staff I haven’t any idea what to expect because it seemed every single thing a prognosticator could count on went right out the window in last week’s beatdown.
I’m going to guess and pin my hopes on one factor: the past few weeks there has been talk of J.T. Barrett’s “legacy”. Right or wrong, the last 3 games of this season and any post-season that occurs will be his legacy. I think he goes out on a positive note.
Buckeyes 27
Spartans 17
Our defense is just not getting turnovers this year so if this continues Saturday OSU will lose, if we are 2+ on turnovers we win. MSU usually brings a tough and mentally tough team to town and I just do not know what our Bucks are this year when it comes to toughness and mental toughness. I do not trust our special teams, WRs, S, or our LBs. A great d line makes your linebackers look better than they are, and I do believe we have a very strong d line which means all of our 4 star and 5 star linebackers are just clueless. I have never seen worse linebacker play in all my time of following the Bucks and thy are getting more clueless as the season continues. I hope I am wrong but I have to trust my eyes and if we do not get the turnovers I think we lose. I will take 85 Billy Price’s on my team every year, and will favor us to win every game if you recruit me 84 just like him.
GO Bucks!
Expect msu to roll out the qb and throw back the other way across the formation a pass to a wide open TE or RB which goes for a huge gain. They throw this damn thing against us every single year and it works. And expect a fake punt at a critical juncture of the game. My one question after all this is the tiebreaker for the big 10 east. You could easily see PSU, MSU, OSU, and TTUN all tied at 7-2 conference records when this is all done. Assuming the buckeyes prevail tomorrow and beat Illinois the buckeyes are big 10 east champs regardless of what happens on 11/25?
No, there would have to be tiebreaker but I don’t know what that is. It may be the best record in just the East games????
I can’t see how Ohio State would not be the champs of the B1G East Division if they beat MSU (assuming they beat IL, also.) They would have beaten PSU and MSU head to head, and God forbid they lose to TTUN, they still have the best 7-2 record for the East. However, I would think if they beat MSU and IL, I see them going into B1G championship game against WI, having momentum from a great victory over TTUN. But then again, could not believe the horrendous game they played last wk, so we await the team that shows up tomorrow.
Unless they lose to Illinois (No), they win the B1G East if they win tomorrow.
yes, do not listen to anyone else.
TCU beats Oklahoma
oklahoma beats TCU in big 12 championship…big 12 is out of playoffs
USC beats Washington in Pac 12- championship……Pac 12 is out of playoffs
Notre dame loses to miami…Notre Dame is out of playoffs
winner of miami/clemson in ACC championship goes to playoff
Georgia and Alabama meet in SEC title both undefeated and both make the playoffs regardless of what happens in the SEC championshio
Ohio State wins out and beats and blows away an undefeated top 4 ranked wisconsin team on primetime to win the Big 12 championship. With 2 wins against two top 10 teams, and both loses against ranked opponents , Ohio State makes the playoffs.
1. Alabama
2.Georgia
3.Clemson
4.Ohio St.
Write it down.
Erase it!!!! BUT WE STILL IN IT BABY!!!! I KNEW IT!!! WE IN IT STILL !!!!!!