The seventh thing they tell you at Predictor’s College is to use a bye week to start over fresh. If you have a losing record, let it go. No reason to let a losing record make people think you can’t predict good.
I’ve never used this approach before because why scrap my usual 94% prediction rate?
Now, however, I think it’s for the best. We all need a fresh start. You, me, the Buckeyes, all of us. None of us have been above criticism. So now it is time to shed that skin and begin anew.
After all, September was for pretenders. November is for contenders.
Let’s get it on.
1. Chris Olave will either score or have a play of at least 26 yards.
The freshman out of California is going to be in the receiver rotation from here on out and based on what his teammates have said, they expect him to make some plays. I originally wanted to just go with a touchdown here, but I also don’t want to predict myself into a corner. I fully expect Chris Olave to score, but consider this prediction more of a soft opening.
2. Tate Martell is going to play.
Tate Martell hasn’t played since he had to step in for Craig Krenzel against Penn State back in 2003, but even if this game is too close for backups to play, I think Martell gets in the game. They have had two weeks to come up with something to help the running game and if, “Let’s give Tate a series” wasn’t something they talked about or prepared to do, then I’d be a little surprised.
3. Nebraska will be held under 200 yards rushing.
Ohio State and Nebraska have gone in opposite directions with their respective running games over the last month. While the Buckeyes can’t do anything, the Huskers have been able to do mostly everything. Over the last four Big Ten games, Nebraska is rushing for 246 yards per game. The Buckeyes, meanwhile, have allowed over 200 yards rushing twice this year, but the 5.4 and 5.6 yards per carry they have allowed in their past two games is an even sadder tale. If the defense has made strides, the Nebraska running game needs to be put in some kind of difficulty. Being held under 200 yards isn’t exactly indicative of that, but we all have to start somewhere.
4. The Buckeyes will average over 4.4 yards per carry.
Speaking of baby steps, it’s time for the Ohio State running game to get walking. The Buckeyes haven’t averaged over 4.4 yards per carry since the second game of the season. Nebraska’s defense has been right at 3.5 yards per carry in their last two games (against Minnesota and Bethune-Cookman). Can the Buckeyes be a full yard better than Bethune-Cookman? I know it sounds crazy to say it, but I think they can. The coaches and players have talked about a renewed attitude, so let’s see if they can unleash that attitude in a way that would at least equal a very below average running game for any year other than this one.
5. Adrian Martinez will finish within 27 yards of total offense of Dwayne Haskins.
Dwayne Haskins leads the Big Ten in total offense this season, averaging 357.1 yards per game. Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez is third with 294.9 yards per game. There is a fair argument to be made that Martinez will outgain Haskins, but I am not the person to make such an argument. It’s impossible to ignore the 175 yards rushing by Trace McSorley earlier in the season, just as it is impossible to ignore the 93-yard pass to K.J. Hamler. Then there’s the whole Purdue game as well. Even with some fixes on defense, I still think Martinez is going to put up some numbers. If Haskins’ average is his over/under this week, I think I’m taking the over, which gives you an idea of the kind of day I’m expecting from Martinez as well. Perhaps the Buckeye running game will help me out here as well by taking some of Haskins’ yards. Also, the wording of the prediction isn’t great, so if Martinez betters Haskins by more than 27 yards, that’s also a win for me.