There is more to college football than the College Football Playoff.
It ends up being a big part of the narrative around most Ohio State football seasons at this point, but the Playoff should not solely define a season for you as a fan.
Unfortunately, there has been a trend in that direction. A lot of that stems from the broadcast outlets that pay roughly a half-billion dollars each year to televise those three games. They make being part of them seem like life-or-death because they need you watching those commercials to pay those bills.
And besides, “Who’s your four?” is a quick and brainless way to get people angry and drive eyeballs to your website or TV show.
So we look at the Playoff picture a little differently around here. For one thing, we don’t bother looking at it until the end of September, when things have started to sort themselves out a bit. There are few things in this world more useless than a Post-Week 1 College Football Playoff Field Projection.
And it’s ridiculous and basically meaningless to try to parse out and assign a definitive meaning to things like Clemson’s close call against North Carolina. It’ll be largely forgotten by the time any of this matters in December anyway. For the most part, history has shown that a win is more or less just a win.
So instead of covering it like a horse race, we’ll take a look at which teams still have a realistic shot to get in to the College Football Playoff, based on the criteria the committee has used before. Basically, we’ll assume a team is still alive until they cross a threshold which has definitively eliminated teams in the past.
That will lead to a larger-than-realistic list of teams for the next couple weeks (We see you, Wake Forest and Kansas State!), but that quickly sorts itself out as teams get into the bulk of their conference schedules.
Here are the criteria we’re working with.
Your program is named Alabama
The Crimson Tide have made the Playoff in each of the five seasons. They did it in 2017 despite not winning their division, not winning their conference, having zero wins over top-15 teams, and entering the postseason off of a two-score loss in their regular season finale.
The normal rules don’t apply.
Until you see the Tide on the outside of the Playoff looking in, just assume they have an auto-bid every year.
You are an undefeated Power 5 conference champ
No unbeaten Power 5 champion has ever been left out of the field. Major independents like Notre Dame would qualify as well.
You are a one-loss Power 5 conference champ
Oklahoma got in this way in 2018 and 2017, Georgia did it in 2017, Clemson and Washington did in 2016, Alabama, Michigan State, and Oklahoma in 2015, and Ohio State, Alabama, and Oregon did in 2014.
TCU and Baylor didn’t in 2014, but they were co-champs and didn’t play a conference title game.
Last year, Ohio State was the first team that has finished 12-1 with a Power 5 Conference Championship Game win that was ever left out. And that required three unbeaten teams, plus another 12-1 major conference champion.
It’s worth noting that the 2018 Buckeyes were also ranked behind an 11-2 Georgia team that didn’t win its conference. So if you’re a team in this category hoping to get in, try not to lose to Purdue by 29 points.
You are a one-loss non-champion Power 5 team
If your regular season resume is strong enough and your loss is early enough in the year, you can overcome not winning your conference.
Ohio State got in this way in 2016, thanks to road wins over top-10 Oklahoma and Wisconsin and a home win over top-5 Michigan.
Wisconsin missed out after losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game in 2017.
Alabama got in this way in 2017, despite losing its last game and having zero wins over top-15 teams. (See “Your Program Is Alabama” above)
You are a two-loss Power 5 conference champ
No two-loss team has ever made the College Football Playoff, but they have gotten close. Penn State was an 11-2 Big Ten champ in 2016 and finished No. 5 in the rankings. Ohio State did the same thing in 2016.
Once you lose your second game, you are all but eliminated from the Playoff discussion. Again, we’ll mention that a two-loss Georgia was ranked No. 5 last season without even winning the conference. But as far as the Playoff field is concerned, No. 5 and No. 25 in the final rankings are functionally the same thing.
In a 2007 scenario, where the season devolves into a Thunderdome of massive upsets and everyone has two losses, you’d probably have a decent shot. But that doesn’t happen often.
Right now, two-loss teams aren’t listed below. If things start to get crazy later this year, that category could get added.
You are an undefeated Group of 5 conference champ
UCF went 12-0 and was ranked No. 12 in 2017. They were behind a three-loss Auburn team, and one spot ahead of 9-4 Stanford.
Houston went 12-1 in 2015 and was ranked No. 18.
This is ridiculous and unfair to basically half of FBS.
But theoretically, an unbeaten Group of 5 champ could get one of the top four spots.
The season started with all 130 FBS teams having at least some shot at making the final four. Now, that list is already down to 36.
So who is still alive for the 2019 College Football Playoff race?
Unbeaten Power 5 Teams (14 remaining)
Clemson, Wake Forest, Baylor, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, LSU.
There is still a decent amount of “y’all ain’t played nobody” in this group. Give it a couple weeks and the club will get a little more exclusive.
One-loss Power 5 Teams (18 remaining)
Duke, Virginia, TCU, Texas, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah, Oregon, Cal, Washington, Missouri.
If you’re in this group this early, your Playoff hopes are already on life-support. It is genuinely impressive that the Pac-12 has zero unbeatens left after Arizona State upset Cal on Friday night.
Unbeaten Group of 5 Teams (4 remaining)
Memphis, Southern Methodist, Boise State, Appalachian State
These teams at least have a theoretical shot to make the field, but they have to run the table, get a lot of help, and then have the committee decide to do something it has shown zero inclination to do at any point in history.