There is more to college football than the College Football Playoff.
It ends up being a big part of the narrative around most Ohio State football seasons at this point, but the Playoff should not solely define a season for you as a fan.
Unfortunately, there has been a trend in that direction. A lot of that stems from the broadcast outlets that pay roughly a half-billion dollars each year to televise those three games. They make being part of them seem like life-or-death because they need you watching those commercials to pay those bills.
And besides, “Who’s your four?” is a quick and brainless way to get people angry and drive eyeballs to your website or TV show.
So we look at the Playoff picture a little differently around here. For one thing, we don’t bother looking at it until the end of September, when things have started to sort themselves out a bit. There are few things in this world more useless than a Post-Week 1 College Football Playoff Field Projection.
And it’s ridiculous and basically meaningless to try to parse out and assign a definitive meaning to things like Clemson’s close call against North Carolina. It’ll be largely forgotten by the time any of this matters in December anyway. For the most part, history has shown that a win is more or less just a win.
So instead of covering it like a horse race, we’ll take a look at which teams still have a realistic shot to get in to the College Football Playoff, based on the criteria the committee has used before. Basically, we’ll assume a team is still alive until they cross a threshold which has definitively eliminated teams in the past.
That will lead to a larger-than-realistic list of teams for the next couple weeks (We see you, Wake Forest and Kansas State!), but that quickly sorts itself out as teams get into the bulk of their conference schedules.
Here are the criteria we’re working with.
Your program is named Alabama
The Crimson Tide have made the Playoff in each of the five seasons. They did it in 2017 despite not winning their division, not winning their conference, having zero wins over top-15 teams, and entering the postseason off of a two-score loss in their regular season finale.
The normal rules don’t apply.
Until you see the Tide on the outside of the Playoff looking in, just assume they have an auto-bid every year.
You are an undefeated Power 5 conference champ
No unbeaten Power 5 champion has ever been left out of the field. Major independents like Notre Dame would qualify as well.
You are a one-loss Power 5 conference champ
Oklahoma got in this way in 2018 and 2017, Georgia did it in 2017, Clemson and Washington did in 2016, Alabama, Michigan State, and Oklahoma in 2015, and Ohio State, Alabama, and Oregon did in 2014.
TCU and Baylor didn’t in 2014, but they were co-champs and didn’t play a conference title game.
Last year, Ohio State was the first team that has finished 12-1 with a Power 5 Conference Championship Game win that was ever left out. And that required three unbeaten teams, plus another 12-1 major conference champion.
It’s worth noting that the 2018 Buckeyes were also ranked behind an 11-2 Georgia team that didn’t win its conference. So if you’re a team in this category hoping to get in, try not to lose to Purdue by 29 points.
You are a one-loss non-champion Power 5 team
If your regular season resume is strong enough and your loss is early enough in the year, you can overcome not winning your conference.
Ohio State got in this way in 2016, thanks to road wins over top-10 Oklahoma and Wisconsin and a home win over top-5 Michigan.
Wisconsin missed out after losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game in 2017.
Alabama got in this way in 2017, despite losing its last game and having zero wins over top-15 teams. (See “Your Program Is Alabama” above)
You are a two-loss Power 5 conference champ
No two-loss team has ever made the College Football Playoff, but they have gotten close. Penn State was an 11-2 Big Ten champ in 2016 and finished No. 5 in the rankings. Ohio State did the same thing in 2016.
Once you lose your second game, you are all but eliminated from the Playoff discussion. Again, we’ll mention that a two-loss Georgia was ranked No. 5 last season without even winning the conference. But as far as the Playoff field is concerned, No. 5 and No. 25 in the final rankings are functionally the same thing.
In a 2007 scenario, where the season devolves into a Thunderdome of massive upsets and everyone has two losses, you’d probably have a decent shot. But that doesn’t happen often.
Right now, two-loss teams aren’t listed below. If things start to get crazy later this year, that category could get added.
You are an undefeated Group of 5 conference champ
UCF went 12-0 and was ranked No. 12 in 2017. They were behind a three-loss Auburn team, and one spot ahead of 9-4 Stanford.
Houston went 12-1 in 2015 and was ranked No. 18.
This is ridiculous and unfair to basically half of FBS.
But theoretically, an unbeaten Group of 5 champ could get one of the top four spots.
The season started with all 130 FBS teams having at least some shot at making the final four. Now, that list is already down to 36.
So who is still alive for the 2019 College Football Playoff race?
Unbeaten Power 5 Teams (14 remaining)
Clemson, Wake Forest, Baylor, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State, Florida, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, LSU.
There is still a decent amount of “y’all ain’t played nobody” in this group. Give it a couple weeks and the club will get a little more exclusive.
One-loss Power 5 Teams (18 remaining)
Duke, Virginia, TCU, Texas, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado, Utah, Oregon, Cal, Washington, Missouri.
If you’re in this group this early, your Playoff hopes are already on life-support. It is genuinely impressive that the Pac-12 has zero unbeatens left after Arizona State upset Cal on Friday night.
Unbeaten Group of 5 Teams (4 remaining)
Memphis, Southern Methodist, Boise State, Appalachian State
These teams at least have a theoretical shot to make the field, but they have to run the table, get a lot of help, and then have the committee decide to do something it has shown zero inclination to do at any point in history.
This is the most sane, unbiased (to everyone but Bama fans) and professional look at the CFP that has been published.
Nicely done.
there is a reason the group of 5 teams don’t go higher–they don’t deserve to!! their schedules are as lames as Clemson’s this year –even worse than–and simply beating a mid to lower level power 5 team during the year means nothing..bowl game wins from a previous year don’t really mean a whole lot in this argument either…put the best group of 5 teams in a power 5 conference where they play power 5 level competition for most of the year and these teams have at least 3-4 losses in their best seasons…so no whining about group of 5 teams……the problem is the committee is inconsistent always rewarding alabama, who in some years as you point out beat nobody very good..they also refuse to do home and home series with good teams so they don’t have to play on the road and funny how bama n georgia don’t ever get scheduled to play each other in the regular season…and sec n acc have only 8 conference games….the committee has been pretty unfair and inconsistent–some might say BIASED–and until the SEc is punished for this the same BS is going to happen. this needs to be an 8 or 16 team playoff like all other college football is…much less legit whining from a #9 or #17 team left out than power 5 champs being left out ..it’s so ridiculous yet a simple fix if these people would choose to do it….
Todd:
Sounds like you should be on the committee, since you ignore the facts just like they do.
The Group of Five is 8-5 in BCS Bowl Games and New Years Six games, including wins over teams ranked #3, #4, #4, #6, #7, and #9. In 2017, there was no good choice for the 4th playoff team and the committee left out an undefeated UCF team. UCF went on to beat Auburn in Atlanta, and the CFP Committee was left with an embarrassing “championship” game which should have been renamed the Beat by Auburn Bowl.
For comparison, the ESPN hyped, face of the SEC – Alabama – is just 7-6 vs other conferences in those same BCS Bowls / Playoff games.
It’s sad that the Group of Five teams, with a better record than Alabama, continue to get left out – especially in 2017 when there was no good 4th playoff team. It’s only because the committee members buy into the ESPN hype and are not smart enough to think for themselves or too lazy to do just a little bit of research.
I have long thought college football is a playoff from day 1. The best system would to just take the 4 best conference champs or ND. Thus win your league and advance. This “best 4 teams” with all this side thoughts mentioned here are stupid.
This is not much different from other sports. If a NFL conference camp is 8-6 they advance. If a MLB team or NHL team wins a conference the record compared to wild card teams doesn’t matter.
Also think what it would do. It would kept many teams alive. Just win your conference. Better for the sport. Also it would promote hard fun non conference games because there is no penalty for a loss. Again better for the sport.
So simple and makes too much sense.
Ocbucks- So, who decides who are the “best” 4 champs of the 5 Power conferences? And why in the world does Notre Lame get an automatic nod that other teams- such as 2nd place conference teams actually better than them- don’t get? Not as simple as you claim.
There is a lot of important football to be played before this conversation becomes really interesting. The problem is that certain teams are exempt from the constraints others face, either by absurd scheduling (Clemson, anyone?) or conference bias (negative or positive, such as SEC and Big 10). It looks like this year the media will again succeed in cramming at least 2 SEC teams down our throats, as Alabama’s toughest test is LSU and vice versa, with both teams miraculously not playing Georgia until the SEC title. If 2 of those three teams end up at least 12-1 (no slip ups against fake good teams like Fla or Auburn), they WILL be invited. Oklahoma’s only real “test” is Texas. If they win that one, it would take an act of God to keep them out. Those comprise the 4 (Clem and their high school schedule is the 4th).- their schedules and bias make it so that they really have to screw up, NOT to make it. This means teams like OSU and Wisky are on the outside looking in even if they crush other teams and have at least a 12-1 record. OSU has to run the table to get in, and if any combo of the other above teams hold serve, Buckeye fans still could be stunned by the final committee decisions. Pretty sobering. Just keep winning Bucks.
Tom, no one thinks any Independent other than Notre Lame is ‘major’ so you might as well dispense with “…major Independents like Notre Dame”. Speaking of, they haven’t really been relevant for a quarter of a century. How long can they keep living off of their past?
Probably as long as that clown show in Ann Arbor does.
At least TTUN rides on the conference. The Domers don’t even have that. But you’re probably right.
True……….UofM is nothing more than a bandwagon rider at this point.
I mean… they literally made the playoff last year.
And if BYU ran the table with their schedule this season, there’s a decent chance they’d get in.
” If” BYU ran the table? If my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle.
Every time ND gets invited the past 25 years they not only lose, but get clocked so badly people wonder why they were in in the 1st place. I know what you mean about them ‘making the playoff’ but that’s ENTIRELY because of putting butts in seats and not their play.