The in-season College Football Playoff ranking shows are generally not worth paying much attention.
Sure, things will change somewhat from week-to-week, and that can be somewhat indicative of the committee’s overall thinking.
However, in past seasons the committee has not seemed particularly beholden to precedent or logic as they’ve moved teams around from week to week.
One team is where it is because of “game control” while another is there because of their “body of work.”
Someone else may have moved up due to a strong “quality win” and only having “quality losses.”
There are, however, weeks when something major happens and it seems like it might truly be a big deal.
November 2️⃣6️⃣ #CFBPlayoff Selection Committee Rankings:
1️⃣. Ohio State // @OhioStateFB pic.twitter.com/xOJJxSq6jz
— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) November 27, 2019
Soooooo… that just happened.
Yes, Ohio State jumped over LSU to take the top spot, just 12 days before the only College Football Playoff rankings that really matter.
There are two separate, but very significant reasons why that is a big freaking deal.
The first is that if the Buckeyes win their next two games and look decent doing it, they would almost certainly hang on to that No. 1 spot.
The reason why is contained in the rest of the top-25.
Here's a full look at the November 2️⃣6️⃣ #CFBPlayoff Selection Committee Rankings.
Is your team in this week?
— College Football Playoff (@CFBPlayoff) November 27, 2019
OSU still has to play No. 13 Michigan and then either No. 8 Minnesota or No. 12 Wisconsin.
Any of those teams would likely remain in the top-25, even with another loss. That would give the Buckeyes four wins over teams in the top-13 right now, plus another over No. 19 Cincinnati. There’s a decent chance the Bearcats fall out of that top-25 in the next couple weeks, but the other wins should stand up.
LSU’s remaining schedule includes unranked Texas A&M and No. 4 Georgia.
The Tigers can, at best, pick up one more ranked win.
It’s almost impossible to see the committee viewing one win over Georgia as so much more impressive than two wins over Michigan/Minnesota or Michigan/Wisconsin that LSU deserves to jump back to the No. 1 spot.
You can never say never, of course. Maybe LSU hangs a 59-0 win on the Bulldogs, while OSU slogs through a couple 21-20 games.
Maybe the committee decides that LSU’s Georgia (neutral site) and Alabama (road) wins are more impressive than anything OSU has, and jumps them back to the top.
Maybe, but probably not. After all, the road win at Alabama is already baked into LSU’s resume.
If you assume that the Buckeyes are likely going to stay atop the ranking with two more wins, here’s why that’s a big deal.
A couple weeks back, we looked at the statistical profiles of this year’s top teams to determine which were most likely to advance in the Playoff.
Ohio State is one of two teams that seems extremely likely to make someone’s life miserable in the semifinals.
Clemson is the other.
If the Buckeyes finish No. 1 and Clemson wins its next two games, Trevor Lawrence and company are someone else’s problem in the semis.
No. 2 LSU would have to face No. 3 Clemson if all three top teams win out.
The Buckeyes would end up facing whoever comes out of the Pac-12, Big 12, second SEC team mish-mash of Utah, Oklahoma, Georgia, or a Tua Tagovailoa-less Alabama.
All of those teams have had solid seasons. None of them are likely to present the overall challenge of Clemson.
At that point, the Buckeyes just have to take care of business in the Peach or Fiesta Bowls to advance to the championship.
They’ll likely have to face Clemson there, but it’s obviously a huge benefit to avoid the other top team in the bracket for as long as possible.
Tuesday evening’s news isn’t the final word on this year’s CFB Playoff field.
But the Buckeyes certainly have a much simpler path to the championship game now than they did an hour ago.