If you’ve ever watched more than 10 minutes of any football studio show, you’ve heard someone wearing a lot of pancake makeup say the phrase, “offense wins games, but defense wins championships.”

“Defense travels” is another classic in the same basic genre.

The general idea is that a good defense has a better-than-average chance to contain what a good offense throws at it.

And while a good offense might get thrown off its game by a hostile atmosphere, a good defense is still strong in any situation.

If those are true, they would give you a pretty good idea which teams might fare better in the playoffs, and which might get knocked out Sooner.

The first thing to figured out is whether a good defense really is a good predictor of which teams will advance in the College Football Playoff.

Below is a list of each of the 20 teams that has appeared in the College Football Playoff, along with its Offensive S&P+ ranking for that season and its Defensive S&P+ ranking.

If you’re not familiar with S&P+, it’s a tempo-free and opponent-adjusted measure of a unit’s strength.

So which matters more; having a great offense or a great defense? We’ll dive into the numbers below.

National Champions

The national champions each year have had S&P+ offensive rankings of: 4, 2, 2, 1, and 3.

Their defensive rankings each year were: 24, 1, 6, 1, 3.

Outside of the 2014 Ohio State defense, every championship unit has been ranked among the top-6 in the nation on both sides of the ball.

Takeaway: Unsurprisingly, to win the national championship, you have to be a great team overall.

Who’s Number 2?

The national runners-up each year have had S&P+ offensive rankings of: 5, 4, 6, 4, 1

Their defensive rankings were: 41, 11, 1, 12, 7

Takeaway: Again, pretty strong teams overall, but you’re starting to see some weaker defenses. Note that the relatively weak 2014 OSU defense (#24) won the title against an even lower-ranked Oregon defense (#41).

One-And-Done

But what’s more interesting is which teams flame out in the semifinals.

The semifinal losers had the following S&P+ offensive rankings: 1, 4, 20, 7, 10, 3, 5, 7, 13, 4,

And this is where they ranked on defense: 1, 17, 26, 17, 8, 4, 2, 43, 10, 84

Takeaway: You’re seeing lots of bigger numbers here. Again, that makes sense. If you’re noticeably worse in one area of the game, that’s probably going to come back to bite you against a strong opponent.

Numbers to note

Florida State’s 2014 team was okay, but not great on defense (#17) and lost to Oregon. The Ducks didn’t have to face an elite defense, which may have been why they skated through with a so-so defense of their own.

Alabama’s 2014 team was #1 in the nation on both sides of the ball. That Sugar Bowl loss to Ohio State jumps out as by far the biggest anomaly of any result in the table, but the Buckeyes were something of an outlier in a lot of ways that year.

Here are Oklahoma’s offense/defensive S&P+ rankings in the years they’ve made the playoff: 7/17, 7/43, 4/84. Three very good offenses, paired with defenses that were somewhere between “okay” and “flaming garbage skow.” The Sooners are 0-3 in College Football Playoff games.

Teams with an S&P+ offensive ranking worse than #6 have never won a Playoff Game (0-5). But then again, teams with bad offenses are almost never picked for the Playoff.

Only three teams with offenses ranked #10 or worse have ever made it, and all three got absolutely destroyed by elite defenses.

In 2015, Alabama’s #1 defense beat Michigan State’s #20 offense, 38-0.

In 2016, Clemson’s #6 defense beat Ohio State’s #10 offense, 31-0.

In 2018, Clemson’s #3 defense beat Notre Dame’s #13 offense, 30-3.

That’s three games with a total of three points scored. Not great!

The Playoff Committee has been much more willing to overlook a defense that’s something between “decent” and “terrible.”

Teams with defenses ranked #10 or worse are 5-9 in the Playoff. However, there have been several matchups where both teams had defenses in that group. If we remove those, teams with defenses ranked #10 or below are 1-4.

The only win came in 2014 when OSU beat Alabama.

So here’s what we know so far:

• If your offense is ranked #10 or worse, you’re likely not getting in and almost certainly not winning.
• If your defense is ranked #10 or worse, you have a decent chance of getting in with a good offense, but are almost certainly going to lose as soon as you face a good defense.

Now, the real question: what does this mean for 2019’s top Playoff contenders?

Here’s a look at where all of the Power 5 teams with zero or one losses this season rank in SP+ this season on offense and defense.

Ohio State: 4/1
Alabama: 3/6
LSU: 2/29
Clemson: 6/3
Georgia: 22/2
Oklahoma: 1/43
Penn State: 11/12
Utah: 10/9
Oregon: 19/15
Minnesota: 8/26
Baylor: 25/19

Based on the past five years, we can break these teams down into a few categories.

Legit Title Contenders

Ohio State: #4 offense, #1 defense
Alabama: #3 offense, #6 defense (this doesn’t factor in Tua Tagovailoa’s injury)
Clemson: #6 offense, #3 defense

Offense Is A Problem

Georgia: #22 offense, #2 defense
Utah: #10 offense, #9 defense

Defense Is A Problem

LSU: #2 offense, #29 defense
Oklahoma: #1 offense, #43 defense

Likely Getting Vaporized

Penn State: #11 offense, #12 defense
Oregon: #19 offense, #15 defense
Minnesota: #8 offense, #26 defense
Baylor: #25 offense, #19 defense

Previous OSU teams

The Buckeyes have been on the verge of making the Playoff in all five seasons so far.

Here’s what might have happened to the three teams that didn’t make it, based on the data above.

2015: #1 offense, #6 defense. This team got flat-out robbed on Selection Sunday, and likely would have advanced over #1 seed Clemson (#4 offense, #11 defense).

2017: #2 offense, #7 defense. Similar profile to 2016 Clemson and 2018 Alabama. Decent shot to advance.

2018: #6 offense, #26 defense. Likely gets clobbered in the semifinals.