Expect More Big Hits from Buckeye Running Backs

There is a misconception among some Buckeye fans that sophomore running back J.K. Dobbins doesn’t have the speed to hit home runs.

They have this belief because they saw him get tracked down from behind a few times last season.

Dobbins did have issues with finishing on his big hits last season, but he spent the offseason working on his explosion and conditioning.

This past winter, running backs coach Tony Alford attributed Dobbins’ being caught from behind not to a lack of speed, but rather to him simply wearing down over the course of the season due to being tasked with a heavy load for a freshman tailback.

Alford is adamant that Dobbins is plenty fast, and let’s not forget that he was once timed at Nike’s The Opening at 4.44 in the 40-yard dash.

Rest assured, the speed is there, and the work is being put in to make sure the distance will follow.

Dobbins’ search for the big hit is not new for Buckeye running backs, however.

Remember Carlos Hyde in 2012? Yes, he rushed for 970 yards, but he never had a single carry of 30 yards. He spent most of the season running on a knee that wasn’t 100%. During the offseason, he went to work to improve upon his long gains. So how did he do? With just 23 more carries in 2013 than he had the year before, Hyde went for at least 30 yards six times and had three runs of over 40 yards.

Remember Mike Weber in 2016? How many times did he get tripped up on a run that could have gone the distance? He probably knows the exact answer, which is why he focused on improving his long-distance running during the winter prior to the 2017 season.

An injury cut his carries from 182 in 2016 to just 101 last year, but he had the same number of 40-yard rushes (3) and his percentage of 30-yard runs increased from 2.2% to 2.9%. That’s a significant jump, so just imagine what he could have done if he was healthy for an entire season. And now imagine what he will be able to do this year.

Maybe it was angles or speed or conditioning, but when Ezekiel Elliott broke into the open, he usually took it a long way. In 2014, of his eight carries that went at least 30 yards, half of them would go on for at least 60 yards.

In 2015, Elliott had seven carries of at least 30 yards. Six of those carries went at least 50 yards, and four went at least 60 yards.

When you look at how that compares to J.K. Dobbins, the data supports what Alford is saying.

Only 10% of Dobbins’ 30-yard rushes continued on for 60 yards, but that number of 30-yard carries — 10 — is the most of any Urban Meyer running back at Ohio State.

In other words, the vision and initial explosion is there, so just imagine what happens when Dobbins has the wind to go the distance.

For instance, 8.2% of Dobbins’ carries went for at least 20 yards, which is better than any other Buckeye running back under Meyer.

Ezekiel Elliott had 15 rushes of at least 30 yards in 562 attempts as a sophomore and junior. Last season, Dobbins had 10 such carries in just 194 attempts.

Using Elliott’s mark of 562 attempts, Dobbins’ would project out to about 29 rushes for at least 30 yards. Not too shabby.

And lest you think Dobbins’ impact stops before it hits 40 yards, keep in mind that 2.1% of his carries went for at least 40 yards last season, which is more than the 1.8% of Elliott’s carries when the Buckeyes won a national title in 2014.

Everyone is expecting a bit of a different offense from Ohio State this year, and if everything continues as planned, one of those differences will be J.K. Dobbins and Mike Weber hitting home runs like a modern day version of the Bash Brothers.

Or maybe more fittingly, the Dash Brothers.

Long Runs 2012-2017