College Football Playoff Picture: Three More Teams Eliminated

The College Football Playoff Committee will release its first rankings of the season in a week. This is shaping up as a potentially pretty clean and easy season for that committee.

Of the seven unbeaten Power 5 teams, three are from the Big Ten. Two remaining regular season matchups between the teams plus the conference title game will ensure at most one will emerge with a 13-0 record.

The final two SEC unbeatens face off in two weeks, so the SEC will have at most one unbeaten.

Clemson is still perfect and the only team showing a hint of a pulse in the ACC.

There is only one unbeaten in the Big 12, and none in the Pac-12.

Still, that’s enough teams without a loss that several will likely get through conference championship weekend unscathed.

If things play out as expected, there could be three teams clearly in and then a scrum of one-loss teams, likely including one or more conference champions.

Of course, this is college football, so things almost never play out as expected.

Still, entering November, this doesn’t look like a year when a two-loss team will have a clear path to the Playoff field.

Below we’ll take a look at which teams still have a realistic shot to get in to the College Football Playoff, based on the criteria the committee has used before. Basically, we’ll assume a team is still alive until they cross a threshold which has definitively eliminated teams in the past.

As a quick reminder, here are the criteria that it normally takes to get one of those top four spots.

Your program is named Alabama

The Crimson Tide have made the Playoff in each of the five seasons. They did it in 2017 despite not winning their division, not winning their conference, having zero wins over top-15 teams, and entering the postseason off of a two-score loss in their regular season finale.

The normal rules don’t apply.

Until you see the Tide on the outside of the Playoff looking in, just assume they have an auto-bid every year.

You are an undefeated Power 5 conference champ

No unbeaten Power 5 champion has ever been left out of the field.

Major independents like Notre Dame or BYU would either possibly or likely qualify as well.

You are a one-loss Power 5 conference champ

Oklahoma got in this way in 2018 and 2017, Georgia did it in 2017, Clemson and Washington did in 2016, Alabama, Michigan State, and Oklahoma in 2015, and Ohio State, Alabama, and Oregon did in 2014.

TCU and Baylor didn’t in 2014, but they were co-champs and didn’t play a conference title game.

Last year, Ohio State was the first team to finish 12-1 with a Power 5 Conference Championship Game win to be left out. And that required three unbeaten teams, plus another 12-1 major conference champion.

It’s worth noting that the 2018 Buckeyes were also ranked behind an 11-2 Georgia team that didn’t win its conference. So if you’re a team in this category hoping to get in, try not to lose to Purdue by 29 points.

You are a one-loss non-champion Power 5 team

If your regular season resume is strong enough and your loss is early enough in the year, you can overcome not winning your conference.

Ohio State got in this way in 2016, thanks to road wins over top-10 Oklahoma and Wisconsin and a home win over top-5 Michigan.

Wisconsin missed out after losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game in 2017.

Alabama got in this way in 2017, despite losing its last game and having zero wins over top-15 teams. (See “Your Program Is Alabama” above)

You are a two-loss Power 5 conference champ

No two-loss team has ever made the College Football Playoff, but they have gotten close. Penn State was an 11-2 Big Ten champ in 2016 and finished No. 5 in the rankings. Ohio State did the same thing in 2016.

Once you lose your second game, you are all but eliminated from the Playoff discussion. Again, we’ll mention that a two-loss Georgia was ranked No. 5 last season without even winning the conference. But as far as the Playoff field is concerned, No. 5 and No. 25 in the final rankings are functionally the same thing.

In a 2007 scenario, where the season devolves into a Thunderdome of massive upsets and everyone has two losses, you’d probably have a decent shot. But that doesn’t happen often.

Right now, two-loss teams aren’t listed below. If things start to get crazy later this year, that category could get added.

You are an undefeated Group of 5 conference champ

UCF went 12-0 and was ranked No. 12 in 2017. They were behind a three-loss Auburn team, and one spot ahead of 9-4 Stanford.

Houston went 12-1 in 2015 and was ranked No. 18.

This is ridiculous and unfair to basically half of FBS.

But theoretically, an unbeaten Group of 5 champ could get one of the top four spots.

The season started with all 130 FBS teams having at least some shot at making the final four. Four weeks ago, there were 36 teams listed below. Now, that list is down to 15.

So who is still alive for the 2019 College Football Playoff race?

Unbeaten Power 5 Teams (7 remaining)

Clemson, Baylor, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State, Alabama, LSU.

Oklahoma somehow managed to give up 48 points to a Kansas State team that had only scored a total of 49 in its previous three games. 

And yes, Baylor and Minnesota are two of the final seven unbeatens in the Power 5, just as everyone predicted this summer.

One-loss Power 5 Teams (6 remaining)

Wake Forest, Utah, Oregon, Florida, Georgia, Oklahoma.

Notre Dame, Wisconsin, and Auburn all suffered their second losses of the season and fell out of this group.

Unbeaten Group of 5 Teams (2 remaining)

Southern Methodist, Appalachian State

SMU and App State continue to win. SMU beat Houston 34-31 and App State clobbered South Alabama, 30-3. SMU has to go to Memphis this week, which will be a challenge. App has to face Georgia Southern Thursday night. They at least have a theoretical shot to make the field. However, they have to run the table, get a lot of help, and then have the committee decide to do something it has shown zero inclination to do at any point in history.