The initial College Football Playoff rankings were released Tuesday night. Ohio State was expected to show up anywhere from No. 3 to No. 6, and No. 6 it was.
Georgia being No. 1 shouldn’t have been a surprise as it was an opportunity for the committee to show everybody that they can look deeper than the shiny object known as Alabama. The Crimson Tide being No. 2 was as low as they could go based on the fact that they have zero losses and they are Alabama.
In my opinion, it was either going to be Ohio State or Notre Dame at No. 3, but it was probably too early to move the Buckeyes that high based on their season to this point. They only have one quality win, and moving them to No. 3 already would have been a contradiction of what they did with Georgia and Alabama.
By keeping OSU out of the top three, that pushed them back into a conversation with Oklahoma, which brings in the head-to-head and the Sooners have the edge there.
So how bad were the Buckeyes screwed in the initial rankings?
Pretty much not at all.
Notre Dame’s loss came by one point to Georgia, who is the committee’s No. 1 team. Clemson, meanwhile, has wins over the No. 13 and No. 14 teams in the initial rankings. The loss to Syracuse obviously wasn’t enough to cost them anything meaningful. Their last three conference wins have only been by 14 points each, so if they don’t start to look better, perhaps they could be overcome by teams behind them.
That leaves Ohio State and Oklahoma in a discussion all by themselves for No. 5 and we already saw how that game turned out. Would it turn out differently if the two teams played this Saturday? It doesn’t matter.
How Concerned Should the Buckeyes Be?
Not even a little. It’s simply too early and there has been no proof yet that a one-loss Big Ten Champion will be left out of the playoffs. Oklahoma may be an issue for a while, but even if the Sooners win the Big XII Championship Game, they’d likely be doing it against a two-loss team that they’ve already beaten.
How Concerned Should Buckeye Fans Be?
Maybe a little, but there’s no reason to be overly concerned. A lot of things would have to happen and it’s not worth going over the litany of scenarios that would keep a 12-1 Ohio State team out of the playoffs. You’ll want to root for Wisconsin the rest of the month, however.
Random CFP Thoughts
+ I might be in the minority here, but right now I can’t justify both the ACC and Notre Dame getting into the playoffs. The Irish are a quasi-ACC team and if they want to dabble with a conference, they need to be tied to it. The same goes for the ACC. If you want to have an association with Notre Dame, don’t be upset when they go to the CFP over your conference champion. That being said, I’d have a hard time sending an 11-win Notre Dame to the playoffs over a 12-win ACC champ. (I don’t consider Miami a viable discussion topic here.)
+ Buckeye fans should have wanted Alabama at No. 1 because it would have shown that the committee was willing to put more credence into the eye test rather than the resume. Ohio State needs to get enough distance from Oklahoma to keep head-to-head from coming into play. The Buckeyes look better than the Sooners do right now, but they have to keep driving that wedge the rest of the season.
+ Keep rooting for Penn State. The fact that they are sitting at No. 7 means they can only move up if they win out, which will continue to give Ohio State a great win.
+ I view conference championship games as a play-in game for the teams in the Top 4, so if they lose, they should be out of consideration. Even if that’s their first loss. The conference championship game is a team’s opportunity to show that they belong, and if they can’t get it done, then let somebody else in who got the job done. Plus, the more weight the committee puts on conference championships, the longer we can go without expanding the playoffs.
+ Can both Ohio State and Oklahoma make it? I think so. If — in my world — only two of the Top 4 right now will be eligible because the other two will be canceled out, you can move Oklahoma and Ohio State right up and in to the Top 4.
+ Anybody telling you that an undefeated Wisconsin might get left out should be laughed at and ridiculed.
Why is this 4-team “playoff” any different than the BCS or any of the other mythical championships of the past? There are still biased voters (The eye “test”? Here’s an eye test: play someone. I’m looking at YOU #2 Alabama), chosen winners/losers (They are contemplating putting two teams that will have just played each other (GA, AL) back in a playoff of only 4 teams? Won’t one of them have just failed the entrance exam?), deserving teams sitting at home (ANY eligible undefeated team or conference champion. PAC-12, MWC, MAC, AAC, etc) and other problems in this format.
The FCS has had a 24-team playoff that includes EVERY conference champion (that wants to) since 2013 and gets closer to a “champion” than the vaunted FBS EVER has. The FCS does this every year. Their student-athletes still attend their classes and take finals during the playoff. Did I mention, they do this EVERY year. FCS teams play an 11 game schedule before selection to the playoff begins. One last time, they do this EVERY year.
Stop perpetuating the myth. This is NOT an NCAA championship. It, and the New Years Six bowls, are an ATM. Call it what it is: the “Year End ATM” (YEATM) sponsored by Capitol One (What’s in YOUR wallet) in Mercedes-Benz (check out our Winter Event) Stadium.
Just say NO to the YEATM!
This is all I can do. You can now go back to discussing why tOSU’s smelly socks deserve a new washing machine and Oklahoma’s don’t even though Oklahoma proved it has smellier socks on the field.
AMEN! Best post ever. Glad to see there are other preaching what I’ve been preaching for years.
I think Okla. loses to Ok st. sat and ND loses 1 more. I think when we blow out a weak overrated Whiskey team in B10 Championship in with the other scenario happening. I just cant see clemson in it at all. regardless of you qb getting hurt in 2nd Qtr of syracuse game . Clemson was favored by 36 i believe and that D gave up alot of points to syracuse. That QB played nowhere on that defense. I dont agree with clemson at all. watch for VT to maybe knock them off
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It’s the first ranking. Slow it down – a whole lot of football to go. Think about this – how many undefeated teams have won the championship in the current format? – none. Not news but it shows that a one loss team will likely win it and who knows? The B1G champion will make it. I like Georgia, Ohio State, Clemson, and TCU –
Lose to a team at home that you should have beat by 20 – 30 points, that’s what you get. The whole “peaking at the right time” mantra, is HOGWASH. You’ve got 12 regular season games. Win them or you’re at the mercy of the voters. That goes for programs like ND, OU and Clemson as well. ND has played a better schedule, OU beat the Buckeyes head to head. No complaints about that. Clemson though is a head scratcher. They got whipped by an unranked opponent with a historically lousy program, and your starting QB is hurt. Clemson should be behind Wisconsin, Miami (yeah they’re not that good, BUT, they are unbeaten) and Penn State at this point.
I personally feel that the Buckeyes are getting the benefit of the doubt. They have 4 and maybe 5 games to change the voters mind so they should feel good being where they are right now. Struggle at all with MSU or Illinois and it won’t matter if they’re wins or not. They need to also take care of the point spread against Iowa, TTUN and probably Wisconsin, otherwise they’re on the outside looking in.
Clemson is the only really bad committee decision.
Thoughtful comments but I disagree with peaking at the right time being hogwash. Remember 2014, Baylor sure does. When asked what happened, the committees responded with “59-0 happened”! If that isn’t peaking I don’t know what is.
CFP Ranking is MEANINGLESS
Your analysis of games is Top Notch! I especially appreciate Tony’s. Thank you a lot, I thoroughly enjoy reading the Ozone!
The big picture downside is that this encourages blowouts. It would behoove Ohio State to keep starters in through the early part of fourth quarter blowouts and run the score up. Not very sportsmanlike and worse, risks getting starters hurt and reduces opportunities for game experience for the next guy up.
Regarding Random thoughts + 1 and + 4: The key word in those paragraphs is “I”. It doesn’t matter that you think ND should be tied to the ACC; they aren’t. And there is no reason to think that the committee agrees with you. And the committee doesn’t kick out conference losers just because Gerd thinks they should. Conference-Championship game losers lack a championship and will be in the same boat as ND this year and OSU last year. They lack a championship but can game a bid based on the other stated criteria. That said, OSU is in fine shape. By winning out, we will jump ND and the SEC championship game loser.
TomBuck2- thanks for the rationality. This article is a lot of hot air which could have been summarized in 2 sentences. Those sentences are: The Buckeyes screwed themselves for the initial poll by wiffing against OU. They will get in if they win out. Short, sweet, accurate.
One final note: as someone who has NEVER rooted for Penn State, I’m not going to “keep rooting” for that trash. They can lose every game and should have been death penaltied several years ago. I’ll be an actual OSU fan and root for the Bucks.
My dream final 4 are SEC-flavour-of-the-week at #1, Oklahoma at 2, Buckeyes at 3 and I really don’t care at 4. I want payback on the Sooners on the way to a Scarlet and Grey national title! O – H!
One other issue. Anyone on the CFP selection committee who has seen a Buckeye game this year and our horrendous kickoff team (it’s a joke according to Coach Meyer), must have trouble thinking of the Buckeyes as a top four team. The kickoff team has to be fixed NOW.
Great point on Notre Dame being tied to the ACC and getting two teams in. That point needs to filter into the media and into the committee discussion. I personally do not see how Clemson is in the top 4. So just pretend your QB is hurt and a loss to a terrible team does not matter at all. They have yet to play anyone really good, only a schedule of mid-teen ranked ACC teams.
This can be a great motivator for OSU. Too bad for all of Saturday’s mistakes, because OSU that outgained PSU by 250 yards could of beaten that team by three TD’s and now could have been number three. Urban now has a motivator just not to get by teams, but to blow them out, and it starts this Saturday, which btw, PSU outgained IA by 300 yards!