Ohio State is currently sporting the second-best passing offense in school history, throwing for an average of 293.6 yards per game. It’s just 4.4 yards short of the 298 yards per game that Joe Germaine was responsible for in 1998. The Buckeyes beat Michigan 31-16 that season, for what it’s worth.
The OSU passing game has dipped a bit over the last three weeks. After stringing together six-straight games with at least 300 yards passing, the Buckeyes have only thrown for 208, 189, and 218 yards the last three games, respectively. Much of that, however, has been due to the running game picking up in a big way the last two weeks.
The Buckeyes have nine players with at least 17 receptions this season. For comparison’s sake, Michigan has just two such players.
Ohio State will rotate six receivers throughout the game, with Terry McLaurin and Johnnie Dixon splitting the Z, Austin Mack and Binjimen Victor splitting the X, and Parris Campbell and K.J. Hill splitting the H. All six receivers bring a unique skill set to the Buckeye offense, and each of them is capable of having a big game on Saturday.
If healthy, Michigan will play three cornerbacks — Lavert Hill, David Long, and Brandon Watson — but I don’t know if they will play all three in a base defense as Ohio State will almost always have three receivers lined up. Safeties against any of OSU’s six receivers would not be a good matchup for Michigan’s defense.
The Wolverines are averaging nearly three sacks per game in conference play. However, 15 of their 23 sacks in B1G play have come against Minnesota, Rutgers, and Purdue, who are a combined 8-16 in conference play. They did sack Wisconsin quarterback Alex Hornibrook three times last week, though.
Ohio State leads the conference in sacks allowed, giving up just 16 this season, and only eight in conference play. No other team has given up fewer than 13 sacks in B1G play this season.
There have been games in which Buckeye quarterback J.T. Barrett has had ridiculous amounts of time to throw the ball. He won’t have that very often in this game. Michigan will blitz quite a bit, which might mean more of running back Mike Weber as he is the better of the two tailbacks in terms of pass blocking. Barrett has thrown seven touchdowns and six interceptions the last three weeks.
Matchup to Watch
Safeties Tyree Kinnel and Josh Metellus vs. receiver Johnnie Dixon. Johnnie Dixon will usually line up wide, but if the Buckeyes choose to run some mesh routes, we have seen Dixon stop his route behind the crisscross and find an open zone. When Barrett gets him the football in these situations, he is able to cut the ball up the field quickly and get into a foot race with opposing safeties. We could also put Parris Campbell versus the Michigan safeties here as well. They will likely be matched up with him several times throughout this game, and he is the Buckeyes’ most explosive receiver.
Don’t Be Surprised If
Ohio State throws to the running backs quite a bit. Michigan likes to attack downhill, so swinging the ball out wide will automatically put the football in some vacated spaces. The Buckeyes will need to block out wide, but they have done very well in that regard this season. Binjimen Victor still needs work, but everyone else is usually on point. The wide stuff will eventually soften the middle for the Ohio State offense.
Advantage
Ohio State. The Michigan safeties can be attacked down the field and the cornerbacks are still learning the craft. The corners are very good, but have dealt with various injuries throughout the season. Are they all good to go this week? Ohio State’s pass blocking has been tremendous of late, so Michigan is going to have a huge test at all levels of their pass defense. J.T. Barrett has seen everything, and center Billy Price might be the best in the game. They will both need to call a great game. The Ohio State offensive line will decide this game, and we’re not just talking about running the ball.
RUN THE BALL and WIN THE GAME
The limiting factor on the Buckeye pass game tomorrow will be the run. I’m expecting Mike Weber to have the game of his life – 150+ yards. As such, I expect the passing yards to be a ‘pedestrian’ 250 or so.
The biggest issue I see is that Michigan simply does not have the quarterback to make this a game and the Buckeyes PROBABLY have enough to wear on them by the 2nd quarter.