“Everyone has his superstitions. One of mine has always been when I started to go anywhere, or to do anything, never to turn back or to stop until the thing intended was accomplished.” ~ Ulysses S. Grant
On November 28, 2011, newly-hired Ohio State head coach Urban Meyer announced to the assembled media members that “Our goal is to compete and win Big Ten championships.”
Ever since that hiring, Ohio State has had the opportunity to compete and win Big Ten championships twice, with the last outright Big Ten championship coming in 2014.
And just like in 2014, the opponent standing in Ohio State’s way this year is the Wisconsin Badgers.
Ohio State fans happily remember the 59-0 domination inflicted upon Wisconsin in that B1G Championship Game.
I have not forgotten that game, but I also have not forgotten three other games against Wisconsin that have taken place during Coach Meyer’s tenure:
2012 Ohio State 21, Wisconsin 14 in overtime
2013 Ohio State 31, Wisconsin 24
2016 Ohio State 30, Wisconsin 23 in overtime
Each a victory by Ohio State, but none of them by more than a touchdown. Two of those games went into overtime before Ohio State secured the victory.
This is the kind of game that Ohio State fans may want to anticipate on Saturday night in Indianapolis, as opposed to the 2014 blowout win that the Buckeyes achieved.
Below are three key areas I will be focusing upon when The B1G Championship kicks off at 8pm on FOX…
Wisconsin’s Play-Action Passing Game Against Ohio State’s Secondary – Badgers tight end Troy Fumagalli is leading Wisconsin in receptions with 38, averaging 12.4 yards per catch. Every Ohio State fan is keenly aware of the defensive struggles with covering tight ends, most prominently displayed during the losses to Oklahoma and Iowa. Wisconsin will look to exploit the Buckeyes’ challenges in this area, and it will bear watching to see what type of coverage schemes Ohio State uses to stop Fumagalli. The play-action aspect will be possible, based upon…
Wisconsin’s Success On First Down – Wisconsin has their traditional massive offensive line, featuring sophomore left guard Jon Dietzen (6’6″, 336 lbs.), redshirt freshman center Tyler Biadasz (6’3″, 316 lbs.), and right guard Beau Benzschawel (6’6″, 317 lbs.), going up against a talented and deep Ohio State defensive line. For Ohio State to win this game, Wisconsin cannot win first down when the Badgers are on offense. Winning first down, in my estimation, is keeping the Badgers to gains of two or three yards. If Wisconsin is able to run Jonathan Taylor on first down, and wind up with 2nd and 4 or 2nd and 3, Ohio State could be in trouble. Wisconsin is the best team in the B1G at time of possession, averaging 35:14 minutes per game.
Wisconsin’s Secondary Against Ohio State’s Receivers – Somewhat overlooked in the Badgers’ success this season, Wisconsin is ranked tops in the B1G in pass defense efficiency, only allowing 156.4 yards per game. With an Ohio State passing game that may or may not have J.T. Barrett operating at full strength, how much will Wisconsin gamble with their secondary? Can they play man coverage and rely on the stout Badgers front seven that has helped the team defense tie Michigan for the B1G lead in quarterback sacks with 39?
My feeling is that Wisconsin play great assignment football and are always in position, like Iowa only better. Their guys this year are definitely an upgrade over last year. Fewer missed assignments but I see this game falling on their quarterback. IN the two losses this year both opposing quarterbacks made ridiculous throws to receivers who made ridiculous catches. If Wisconsin does that and we can’t keep 7 or 8 in the box, they should be pretty much unstoppable.
I’m done saying JT is going to have to throw the ball downfield. That might actually be an advantage for Wisconsin. As stated above DH is the better option here, just as Cardale Jones was. Nothing against J.T but the short routes he throws play into Wisconsin’s defence the same way it played into Iowa’s. He doesn’t have to throw it 50 yards, but 30 would sure help.
This game could work out for Wisconsin. The Buckeye’s are recruited to rush the passer. They are smaller than the Wisconsin o-line and will get pushed around, tired or not. tOSU linebackers have been caught in the wrong gap a number of times this year. If that happens it will be game over real quick. That Wisconsin running back never misses an opening. Keeping the Wisconsin offence off the field will be critical. A lead will be critical. If Wisconsin can just run the ball play after play, Ohio State will have very few possessions. Three and outs, or two series possessions will be essential. If Wisconsin can just line up and start pounding on the bus it’s going to be a long afternoon.
When it comes down to it, it’s going to be strength against skill. Ohio State has more game breakers, offence and defence, but, can we get them the ball score some points, and have some long drives to rest the defence. Not everything has to go right but somethings have to go right.
Or just put Haskins in and let our guys make them run all over the field. We definitely have more receivers to run deep routes than they have corners and safeties to run with them. If I was in the coaches room, my theory would be run them until they drop. Few quick hitters, lots of counters, Attack downfield at every opportunity. Have at least 25-30 carries for the running backs. Pull them into the box, throw over their heads.
Must, must, must throw the ball to open up the run. This is always the case against solid opponents, especially against a stout D like W. I actually hope DH starts for that reason.
W played teams even in first halves, offensive line wore defensive line down in 2nd. W has not played a team with a deep defensive line like OSU. W may need different game plan against OSU.
As good as Wisconsin’s running attack had been, they were not able to move the ball on UM until their young QB hit a few key passes. So I think we have to keep their passing game in check to win.
The same principle applies to our offense, i.e. we will have to be successful at throwing the ball DOWNFIELD if we are going to be able to run the ball. Lets hope JT is healthy and on his passing game.
And Kurt, I think Wisconsin’s defense is really good regardless of how their soft schedule may have inflated their stats. They are masters at disguising their blitzes by using a couple lineman to occupy and screen off front blockers and then having a linebacker sneak around the openings.
Thanks, in your estimate as we hear a lot about WI’s D, is that due to WI being that good or just a softer schedule? I too expect a nail biter, but hoping that OSU can complete a good game and pass an eye test with flying colors.
My opinion is it’s a blend. Last year it took overtime, there’s a lot of crossover, but this year they really haven’t been tested. I think it will be close for awhile, at least, and it’s possible the Bucks pull away late.