Roll Tide, Boomer Sooner, And Other Things You Thought You’d Never Say

With just two weeks to go in the regular season, the Buckeyes now stand 9th in the official College Football Playoff rankings. That’s a four spot improvement over a week ago, and means that the Bucks are a legitimate threat to make the Playoff Committee’s final top 4.

However, being #9 also means that they’re likely going to need a little bit of help to earn a spot in either the Rose or Sugar Bowls. (The full College Football Playoff Top 25 is at the bottom of this post, just in case you’re the type of fair-weather fan who hasn’t memorized it yet.)

It should go without saying that everything you’re about to read is predicated on Ohio State beating Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin over the next three Saturdays. Style points wouldn’t hurt – the 2014 team probably would have missed the playoff if they won the Big Ten title game 13-10 instead of 59-0 – but there is no margin for error here when it comes to wins and losses.

You’re also crossing your fingers and hoping against hope that no conference gets two teams in. If the committee ends up giving the ACC or SEC half of the playoff berths, it would probably require a series of ridiculous upsets elsewhere for a two-loss Buckeye team to grab one of the open spots. Clemson checking in at #2 this week is a little bit of a concern on that front.

With UCF still disgracefully stuck all the way down at #15, it’s pretty clear that only Power 5 conference teams and Notre Dame are going to have a shot. That means if each conference does get one… and only… one spot, it’s pretty much a game of musical chairs. Right now the Pac-12 and Notre Dame look like they’ll be the ones standing when the music stops, but let’s take a conference-by-conference look at the realistic best and worst-case scenarios for OSU.

ACC

Best-case scenario: South Carolina upsets Clemson, Miami beats Clemson to win the ACC. This would leave unbeaten Miami as the #1 or #2 seed, and Clemson with three losses. There is no chance the committee would put a 10-3 Clemson team in over an 11-2 Big Ten champion Ohio State. If Miami somehow gacked one up to Virginia this weekend, an ACC title game loss would similarly doom their playoff chances.

Worst-case scenario: Miami and Clemson both win out, and the ACC title game is extremely competitive. This is the most plausible path for any conference to get two teams in. With Clemson at #2, a loss somewhere in the neighborhood of 31-28 to #3 Miami would not necessarily knock them out of the top 4. Similarly, if Miami keeps it close, they could also hang on to a spot.

Neither of those are anywhere close to a guarantee, but they’re at least possible. You’re rooting for one or both to lose before the title game, and for the title game to be a blowout.

Big 12

Best-case scenario: Oklahoma wins out, wins the Big 12 championship. Oklahoma eliminates the rest of its league from consideration, and one of Ohio State’s losses looks relatively forgivable.

Worst-case scenario: Oklahoma wins the next two games but loses a close Big 12 championship to a 10-2 Oklahoma State or TCU. This would put the committee in a tough spot, having to choose between a 2-loss Big Ten champion Ohio State, a 2-loss Big 12 champion with a win over Oklahoma, and a 2-loss Oklahoma with a win over Ohio State.

There’s a decent chance the Buckeyes get the nod there, but it’s going to be a very uneasy Saturday night and Sunday morning waiting for the bracket to be revealed.

Notre Dame

Best-case scenario: Navy or Stanford hand the Irish their third loss of the season.

Worst-case scenario: Miami and Georgia both win out in dominating fashion, while ND hangs 40-point beatdowns on the Midshipmen and Cardinal. Even this may not be enough to put the Irish in over OSU.

Remember, Notre Dame is one spot ahead of Ohio State at the moment. Assuming both teams win out, the Buckeyes will play a 13th game, add a win over a top-5 team, and have a conference title. That should be more than enough to leap-frog the Irish. It would take a complete demolition of Navy and Stanford and some extremely gross and unimpressive OSU wins for this even be a conversation.

Pac-12

Best-case scenario: Anyone but USC wins the title. It could be Stanford, it could be Washington State. As long as it’s not the Trojans, there’s virtually no chance they make the top 4.

Worst-case scenario: USC destroys UCLA and then turns around and vaporizes whoever they play in the Pac-12 title game, while OSU and Wisconsin play a soul-crushing puntfest that ends up with an 11-5 final score.

Even then, the Buckeyes (who are already two spots ahead of the Trojans) would have added two wins against teams ranked higher than USC’s last two victims. It would take something truly remarkable for them to jump the Bucks.

SEC

Best case-scenario: Alabama wins out, knocking #6 Auburn and #7 Georgia below Ohio State. There is no scenario where the SEC would get more than one berth here.

Worst-case scenario: Auburn wins its next two games, including an upset of Alabama. Georgia wins its next two games. At that point, the winner of the SEC title game is a lock for the playoff, and the committee has a hard decision to make about an 11-1 Alabama team that missed its conference championship game.

There are a lot of compelling arguments for why an 11-2 Big Ten champion OSU team would deserve to be in over the 11-1 Tide. Bama’s best wins would be a narrow escape over #16 Mississippi State, and a win over #20 LSU. They would not have either a division or conference title to burnish their resume. Last year, Ohio State got in without playing in the Big Ten title game, but had wins over #6 Michigan, #7 Oklahoma, and #8 Wisconsin – the latter two on the road. Bama’s list of accomplishments is light years behind that. By any objective measure, the Big Ten champion Buckeyes should be an easy choice.

All that said… do you really want to spend the morning of December 3 with your hopes pinned to the idea that the universe is suddenly going to reverse course and not give Nick Saban his way?

Roll Tide, y’all.

College Football Playoff Rankings

1. Alabama (10-0)
2. Clemson (9-1)
3. Miami (9-0)
4. Oklahoma (9-1)
5. Wisconsin (10-0)
6. Auburn (8-2)
7. Georgia (9-1)
8. Notre Dame (8-2)
9. Ohio State (8-2)
10. Penn State (8-2)
11. USC (9-2)
12. TCU (8-2)
13. Oklahoma State (8-2)
14. Washington State (9-2)
15. UCF (9-0)
16. Mississippi State (7-3)
17. Michigan State (7-3)
18. Washington (8-2)
19. NC State (7-3)
20. LSU (7-3)
21. Memphis (8-1)
22. Stanford (7-3)
23. Northwestern (7-3)
24. Michigan (8-2)
25. Boise State (8-2)