Check the batteries on your TV’s remote, make sure your fridge is stocked, ensure that the groove on your couch is just the way you like it, and clear your calendar. The season is the on the line for Ohio State this weekend, and with the Buckeyes’ playoff hopes balanced somewhat tenuously, you will have a vested rooting interest in just about every game that’s about to be played.
Some are more important than others of course, but even if you don’t realize it yet, you have a legitimate reason to care about the outcome of Boise State and Fresno State.
FiveThirtyEight.com has Ohio State at a 32.8% chance of making the playoff field at the moment. That is not great, but it’s also not insurmountable. Outside of Wisconsin, the biggest threat to OSU’s chances is Alabama, who won’t play this weekend because they got lit on fire and then stomped out by Auburn. But there are still scenarios where USC or even TCU could steal the last playoff spot away from the Buckeyes.
These games are listed in descending order of importance to OSU’s chances.
Big Ten Championship Game: #8 Ohio State vs. #4 Wisconsin
Saturday, 8:17 pm (FOX)
Point Spread: OSU -6
Root For: Ohio State
Potential Impact: You probably didn’t need an Officially Licensed College Football Expert such as myself to tell you that this is the key to everything. If the Buckeyes win, their playoff odds go from 32.8% to 58.4%. If they lose, they’re at zero. It’s not quite “win and you’re in” but that’s about as high-stakes as it can get if you have a 31-point loss to Iowa on your resume.
The 58% chance of getting in means that the playoff committee’s final decision could come down to style points. A 38-17 win over an unbeaten #4 team would very likely get the Buckeyes in, while a 17-15 victory could make it a much tougher decision.
Big 12 Championship Game: #11 TCU vs. #3 Oklahoma
Saturday, 12:30 pm (FOX)
Point Spread: Oklahoma -7
Root For: TCU
Potential Impact: This one has a much bigger chance to decided OSU’s fate than you might think. That’s because it’s the only championship game to pit one team that’s ahead of the Buckeyes against one that’s significantly behind them. A Horned Frog win would improve OSU’s chances from 32.8% to 42.1%, while an Oklahoma win would knock them down to 27.3%.
It’s not a guarantee. A blowout TCU win, coupled with a close Ohio State victory could vault the Frogs into the field ahead of the Buckeyes. And there is always the small danger that the committee could keep OU ahead of the Buckeyes due to their head-to-head win. The Sooners are still given a 7.7% chance of making the field, even with a loss on Saturday.
But on the whole, you’re better off rooting for Baker Mayfield to walk sadly off the field Saturday afternoon, flag unplanted and crotch ungrabbed.
Pac-12 Championship Game: #12 Stanford vs. #10 USC
Friday, 8:00 pm (ESPN)
Point Spread: USC -3.5
Root For: Stanford
Potential Impact: Surprisingly big, at least by the numbers. A Stanford win vaults the Buckeyes from 32.8% to 35.5%, while a USC win would send OSU’s odds back to 29.5. The combination of a close, gross OSU win and a dominating USC blowout could push the Trojans ahead of the Buckeyes. The Trojans have a 23.6% chance to make the field with a win, so eliminating them from contention would only help.
Realistically, is the committee going to vault the Trojans over the Buckeyes based on a win over a 4-loss team? Probably not. But it’s one less thing to think about on Sunday morning.
ACC Championship Game: #7 Miami vs. #1 Clemson
Saturday, 8:00 pm (ABC)
Point Spread: Clemson -9.5
Root For: Clemson
Potential Impact: Somewhat minimal. A Clemson win moves OSU up from 32.8% to 33.4%, while a Miami win sends them back to 31.4%. The bottom line is that one of these teams is going to lose and almost certainly be out. The other is going to win and almost certainly be in. A Clemson win would decisively knock Miami out, while a Hurricanes win could still leave the door open for Clemson to squeak in (19.2%).
While the Playoff Committee is only supposed to take this season into account, 31-0 was 31-0. If the Buckeyes can avoid a head-to-head comparison with Clemson, that can only help.
SEC Championship Game: #6 Georgia vs. #2 Auburn
Saturday, 4:00 pm (CBS)
Point Spread: Auburn -2
Root For: Auburn
Potential Impact: This is a lower-stakes game than you might expect. If Auburn wins, the odds of OSU getting in go from 32.8% to 33.3%. A Georgia win would drop them slightly to 32.3%.
The danger is that the committee could decide that Auburn’s blowout wins over Georgia and Alabama during the regular seasons were enough to counteract a loss this weekend, especially if this game is close. Auburn’s chances are still listed at 9.4% if they lose.
Any Auburn win will do for Ohio State, but if UGA takes this one, hope that they do it decisively enough to clearly knock the Tigers out of the field.
Hilariously Poor Resume vs. #5 Alabama
Sunday, 12:00 pm (ESPN)
Point Spread: Alabama -4,724
Root For: Hilariously Poor Resume
Potential Impact: If the committee happens to notice that the Tide’s best win (by 14 at home vs. LSU) is basically the same as Troy’s best win (by 3 at LSU), that can only help the Buckeyes. The Bayou Bengals are #17 in the Playoff Rankings. If the Buckeyes win Saturday, they would have a 45-point win over #16 Michigan State, a one-point win over #9 Penn State, and a win over #4 Wisconsin.
Mountain West Championship Game: #25 Fresno State at Boise State
Saturday, 7:45 pm (ESPN)
Point Spread: Boise State -9.5
Root For: Boise State
Potential Impact: Very minimal. As mentioned above, Alabama has three wins over teams ranked in the current Playoff Committee Top-25. They are #17 LSU, #23 Mississippi State, and #25 Fresno State. Knocking the non-cowbell-ringing Bulldogs out of those rankings can’t hurt, right?
These two teams actually played last weekend in Fresno. The Bulldogs won an absolutely meaningless 28-17 game that featured both sides trying desperately to not show anything of value. The rematch should theoretically be slightly more compelling. This is also a low-key reminder of how unbelievably stupid the Big Ten was to put OSU and Michigan in opposite divisions during the Legends and Leaders days. Playing cross-divisional games the week before conference championships is a 100% self-imposed debacle.
Louisiana-Monroe at Florida State
Saturday, 12:00 pm (ACC Network)
Point Spread: FSU -27.5
Root For: Louisiana-Monroe
Potential Impact: The suddenly coachless Seminoles are 5-6, and rescheduled this game in a last-ditch effort to try to get bowl-eligible. Try to imagine making sense of that sentence back in August.
A Seminole win would give Alabama another win over a bowl team, which is… something? Let’s be honest, though. If the committee decides a win over 6-6 FSU is impressive enough to swing a playoff spot on, they were going to give it to Alabama regardless.
I don’t even understand how the Bucks can even be mentioned for the playoffs. Two butt whoopins, one at home and of course one against IOWA and I can’t even defend us with a straight face. Throw in the way we were dominated last year in the playoffs and I don’t believe there is any way we get in.
Talking about Ohio State is clickbait, so of course some are saying they have a chance to get in. But how they get in is simple, everyone else is worse. But lets say TCU beats Oklahoma, both, Oklahoma and TCU are 10-2, and they are tied on the season series. If Auburn loses to Georgia, they are both 11-2. If Clemson or Miami are pretty much in, as conference champions with 1 loss. USC is a conference champion with a record or 11-2. If Ohio State wins, they are conference champions with a record of 11-2. It’s not about Ohio State being all that good, it’s about everyone else being just as bad. There’s just a lot of 11-2 and not much else out there.
1. OSU has wins against 3 top 16 teams one of which they beat by 45 points – the largest win of all teams over a top 20 team. More than offsets the 31 point loss to Iowa
2. Alabama has a win over 2 lower rung top 25 teams
The way things are this year the best thing to write is, it really makes no sense to think about it. SO thanks for thinking about it. I still think it makes no sense to think about it but now it’s a more informed decision.
The only sure thing is, if one of the top 4 loses, the committee is going to make a decision that 80% of the college football world does’t like as there are about 5 teams in the running for that last spot, so an 80% disapproval rating is pretty much guaranteed. I’m almost hoping the top 4 all win, just to avoid the whining, crying and gnashing of teeth.
Off the Buckeyes win as I’m expecting (but I was expecting them to win at Iowa too) all it’s likely to mean is some non-Big 10 team takes Wisconsins spot.
The Originator of “The Tip Sheet” fka “Tom’s Tip Sheet” returns in all his splendour! Thanks for the smile. I think ranking Fresno was the Committee tipping their hand that they’re gonna put in ‘Bama unless the house of cards falls this weekend.
“…rooting for Baker Mayfield to walk sadly off the field Saturday afternoon, flag unplanted and crotch ungrabbed.”
That’s some good writing there!