Buckeyes Part Of Narrowing College Football Playoff Field

Ohio State’s dramatic 27-26 comeback win at Penn State keeps the Buckeyes right at the center of the potential College Football Playoff field.

The Buckeyes are one of only 11 unbeaten Power 5 conference teams remaining (including Notre Dame). That number was 15 just a week ago.

OSU is the only Big Ten team left with a perfect record.

The Pac-12 also has just one unbeaten remaining, although it would probably take you at least five guesses before you figured out it was Colorado.

Below, we’ll take a look at which teams still have a realistic shot to get in to the College Football Playoff, based on the criteria the committee has used before.

This assumes, of course, that they will feel bound by precedent.

But so far, the first question is “have you lost zero or one games?”

If the answer to that is “no” then better luck next year.

Here’s a look, in order of likelihood that a team will get in.

Your program is named Alabama

The Crimson Tide have made the Playoff in each of the four seasons. They did it in 2017 despite not winning their division, not winning their conference, and entering the postseason off of a two-score loss in their regular season finale.

The normal rules don’t apply.

Until you see the Tide on the outside of the Playoff looking in, just assume they have an auto-bid every year.

You are an undefeated Power 5 conference champ

No unbeaten Power 5 champion has ever been left out of the field. Major independents like Notre Dame would qualify as well.

You are a one-loss Power 5 conference champ

Oklahoma and Georgia got in this way in 2017, Clemson and Washington did in 2016, Alabama, Michigan State, and Oklahoma in 2015, and Ohio State, Alabama, and Oregon did in 2014.

TCU and Baylor didn’t in 2014, but they were co-champs and didn’t play a conference title game.

No team that has finished 12-1 with a Power 5 Conference Championship Game win has ever been left out.

You are a one-loss Power 5 team

If your regular season resume is strong enough and your loss is early enough in the year, you can overcome not winning your conference.

Ohio State got in this way in 2016, thanks to road wins over top-10 Oklahoma and Wisconsin and a home win over top-5 Michigan.

Wisconsin missed out after losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game in 2017.

Alabama got in this way in 2017, despite losing its last game and having zero wins over top-15 teams. (See “Your Program Is Alabama” above)

You are a two-loss Power 5 conference champ

No two-loss team has ever made the College Football Playoff, but they have gotten close. Penn State was an 11-2 Big Ten champ in 2016 and finished No. 5 in the rankings. Ohio State did the same thing in 2016.

Once you lose your second game, you are all but eliminated from the Playoff discussion.

In a 2007 scenario, where the season devolves into a Thunderdome of massive upsets and everyone has two losses, you’d probably have a decent shot. But that doesn’t happen often.

You are an undefeated Group of 5 conference champ

UCF went 12-0 and was ranked No. 12 in 2017. They were behind a three-loss Auburn team, and one spot ahead of 9-4 Stanford.

Houston went 12-1 in 2015 and was ranked No. 18.

This is ridiculous and unfair to basically half of FBS.

But theoretically, an unbeaten Group of 5 champ could get one of the top four spots.

The season started with all 130 FBS teams having at least some shot at making the final four. Now, only 33 teams are left in one of those groups that has a good chance to make it. Three more from the Group of 5 are at least theoretically in the picture.

So who is still alive for the 2018 College Football Playoff race?

Unbeaten Power 5 Teams (11 remaining)

Alabama, Cal, Clemson, Colorado, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, NC State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, West Virginia

Duke, Penn State, Syracuse, and Stanford all lost their first games on Saturday, dropping this from 15 to 11.

One-loss Power 5 Teams (22 remaining)

Auburn, Boston College, Duke, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Miami, Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Missouri, Oklahoma State, Oregon, Penn State, Stanford, Syracuse, Texas, Virginia Tech, Washington, Washington State, Wisconsin

Baylor, BYU, Mississippi State, South Carolina, Texas Tech, Utah, and Virginia all lost their second games this weekend, while Duke, Penn State, Syracuse, and Stanford all joined this group.

It now stands at 22, a week after consisting of 25 teams.

Unbeaten Group of 5 Teams (3 remaining)

Cincinnati, UCF, USF

Buffalo and North Texas both suffered their first losses, knocking this list down from five to three. 

The only three remaining non-Power 5 teams are all from the AAC, and they will all play each other in a three-week span from November 10-23.