If you’re a Buckeye fan, the College Football Playoff picture just got a whole lot clearer on Saturday.
The Bucks now need to win out, including Michigan and the Big Ten Championship game to earn a spot.
Do that, and they’re very likely in. Lose another game, and you’re almost certainly out.
There was a lot of talk on Twitter after the game about how the lopsided margin of defeat was going to keep the Buckeyes out.
That happened in 2017 after the Iowa loss, but only because OSU had two regular season losses, not one.
There is currently no precedent for a one-loss conference champion getting left out for a team with more than one loss or a non-conference champion.
Below, we’ll take a look at which teams still have a realistic shot to get in to the College Football Playoff, based on the criteria the committee has used before.
Three weeks ago, there were 33 Power 5 teams on the list. Today there are less than half that: 16.
Here are the criteria we’re working with.
Your program is named Alabama
The Crimson Tide have made the Playoff in each of the four seasons. They did it in 2017 despite not winning their division, not winning their conference, having zero wins over top-15 teams, and entering the postseason off of a two-score loss in their regular season finale.
The normal rules don’t apply.
Until you see the Tide on the outside of the Playoff looking in, just assume they have an auto-bid every year.
You are an undefeated Power 5 conference champ
No unbeaten Power 5 champion has ever been left out of the field. Major independents like Notre Dame would qualify as well.
You are a one-loss Power 5 conference champ
Oklahoma and Georgia got in this way in 2017, Clemson and Washington did in 2016, Alabama, Michigan State, and Oklahoma in 2015, and Ohio State, Alabama, and Oregon did in 2014.
TCU and Baylor didn’t in 2014, but they were co-champs and didn’t play a conference title game.
No team that has finished 12-1 with a Power 5 Conference Championship Game win has ever been left out.
You are a one-loss Power 5 team
If your regular season resume is strong enough and your loss is early enough in the year, you can overcome not winning your conference.
Ohio State got in this way in 2016, thanks to road wins over top-10 Oklahoma and Wisconsin and a home win over top-5 Michigan.
Wisconsin missed out after losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game in 2017.
Alabama got in this way in 2017, despite losing its last game and having zero wins over top-15 teams. (See “Your Program Is Alabama” above)
You are a two-loss Power 5 conference champ
No two-loss team has ever made the College Football Playoff, but they have gotten close. Penn State was an 11-2 Big Ten champ in 2016 and finished No. 5 in the rankings. Ohio State did the same thing in 2016.
Once you lose your second game, you are all but eliminated from the Playoff discussion.
In a 2007 scenario, where the season devolves into a Thunderdome of massive upsets and everyone has two losses, you’d probably have a decent shot. But that doesn’t happen often.
We’re probably one more Upset Saturday away from having to start tracking those as well.
You are an undefeated Group of 5 conference champ
UCF went 12-0 and was ranked No. 12 in 2017. They were behind a three-loss Auburn team, and one spot ahead of 9-4 Stanford.
Houston went 12-1 in 2015 and was ranked No. 18.
This is ridiculous and unfair to basically half of FBS.
But theoretically, an unbeaten Group of 5 champ could get one of the top four spots.
The season started with all 130 FBS teams having at least some shot at making the final four. Now, only 18 teams are left in one of those groups that has a good chance to make it. Three more from the Group of 5 are at least theoretically in the picture.
So who is still alive for the 2018 College Football Playoff race?
Unbeaten Power 5 Teams (3 remaining)
Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame
This number dropped from five to three this week. Clemson smoked NC State. You’re probably aware of the other team that fell out of this category.
One-loss Power 5 Teams (13 remaining)
Duke, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, LSU, Michigan, NC State, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Texas, Washington State, West Virginia
The Pac-12 is down to just one team with fewer than two losses after Colorado and Oregon both lost their second games this weekend.
Unbeaten Group of 5 Teams (2 remaining)
UCF, USF
Luke Fickell’s Cincinnati Bearcats lost to Temple. It wasn’t a great weekend for current or former Urban Meyer assistants.
Go Bucks… win out and Knock Michigan out and gain a little bit of respect back.
Never seen so many fair weather fans in all my life that’s on this site they’ll bounce back GO BUCKS
Get some fresh air! Nobody is giving up on this team. They’re pissed because these kids deserve top notch coaches and training and any half wit that’s watched the last 2 seasons can see that Meyer is running a circus.
If, that’s a big IF, the Buckeyes win out, they will not almost certainly be in the “playoffs”. Remember you have the SEC Champ, which will definitely get in, regardless of how many losses they have (1, 2, 3, 4 or 5), they are in. This year, you have Notre Dame, they are heavily favored to win their remaining games, as their schedule was front loaded. They win out, they are in. That’s why this year is going to be very hard for the Buckeyes to get in. There are essentially 2 spots left. You want Alabama to win out, otherwise, the SEC WILL get 2 spots, leaving only 1 left, and that will surely go to Clemson. If ‘Bama wins out, Clemson will get one spot, leaving 1 other spot left. At this point, it’s between the Big 12 and the Big 10. There are 2 teams ahead of Ohio State, and they will play each other in the Big 12 Championship, so only 1 will get knocked off. The other will likely take the final spot. Keep in mind that the Big 10 Champion has not made the “playoffs” for the past 2 years. Even when it was argued that the Big 10 was the best conference last year, they were still left out. This year, it is argued (again) that the Big 10 is way down because of their non-conference performance. That doesn’t bode well for the Buckeyes.
Y’all should read Tony Gerdeman’s 10
things we learned from Purdue game,he is right on!
It ain’t over yet y’all bunch of libtard whiners!
You may as well forget playoffs they ruined their resume by getting blown out by an unranked team AGAIN!Plus You think they got out coached and blown out again what do you think they would do in playoffs,it would be embarrassing!They are so easy to coach against with those linebackers and secondary it’s going to be interesting against all the teams left.I would be surprised if they won out.Its going to be tough this is a bad coached team.Changes need to be made Urban.You are a great coach but you need help,good luck the rest of the way
Anyone remember when Urban used to pride himself in wanting coaches who coached like their hair was on fire? I miss those days.
Sorry Tom… Gotta call you on your lazy pointless column here… rerunning the same playoff criteria from weeks past. What the ozone needs to do an expose on is the regression of this team and who is to blame and why things aren’t being fixed: denial and cronyism by Urban. His inability to make tough decisions that need to be made; remove certain position/coordinator coaches that are NOT getting job done. His refusal to pull JT out of Iowa game after the first two of his four interceptions, which cost us the game and him the Heisman Trophy. What if we had put Haskins in last year instead…? It couldn’t have been any worse. But no he had to stick with his buddy JT, in denial and stubborn. Recruiting five and four star players will when you several games and cause you to have players for only 2 years that are often prima donnas. Is this part of our systemic issue?
Tom, I would like to see an Expose and deep dive into some of these possibilities… Not a fake gloss over of the cfp picture because the college football playoff is something we should all fear. This Purdue loss was a Primetime embarrassment and exposure of the gaping mediocrity going on inside the coaching staff, the last thing we need is to sneak into the cfp and have more National embarrassment.
Check the Front Page.
2 thumbs up Charlie Otterman
I don’t think Urban is the problem. Defense wins…you know. So…
“Oklahoma DC Mike Stoops Fired After Sooners Allow 48 Points to Texas”
This MESS IS ALL URBAN’S FAULT… his arrogance, and stubbornness, has ran this team into the dog shit pile that they are….This underachieving team is no where close to a NC team….they really don’t even look like a top 25 team, lets be real….they can sling the ball, but can’t do anything else. They are undisciplined,uncoachable….anyone that thinks this team can compete with Alabama,Clemson, Notre Dame, LSU,Oklahoma is delusional. The whole nation saw OHIO STATE exposed for the real team we are at this point….very bad….
wow all the people commenting on here this is a waste of space! seriously…it’s interesting to see who is left and although OSU doesn’t look like a playoff team if they win out they ARE in ..and whoever says TX would get the nod over OSU –that makes no sense..OSU would have beaten the team that beat Texas..Maryland..i dont have a ton of hope the coaches get it turned around but OSU IS technically still alive….if you think this article is a “waste” of space go read something then
Technically still alive and reality are two different things. You don’t have a ton of hope coaches will turn this around then how can you possibly think in reality they are still alive. Ridiculous.
Ross—it’s not ridiculous–it’s possible even if it doesn’t APPEAR very hopeful–if you can’t understand that concept i can’t help you. the REALITY is that as a one loss team–one of very few remaining with the 3 legit unbeaten teams–that OSU will be in the playoff IF they win out…obviously the way the coaching and playing has been it doesn’t seem likely, but there IS hope and the season isn’t over…if you think it is go root for someone else. I’m as frustrated as any Buckeye fan but the all out whiny, defeatist attitude of some fans is pathetic and wussy in my opinion….
Todd your optimism is like the black knight in Monty Pythons Holy Grail with all his limbs cut off and still wanting to fight. Be realistic man
Kevin–i said i dont have much hope but in reality there IS hope still as a one loss team..never watched that dumb movie so the reference is pointless lol
Urban and his coaches – clown show – are getting paid too much to not produce better outcomes year after year. Yes I know it is only one game and his record is impressive at OSU but it is they way he has managed the past few years with arrogance, blame, excuses and the hire of friends and family as coaches that is disappointing. He knew the scrutiny and expectations of this job when he took it. Those first few years were the best as he coached like Saban. Urban knows what it takes to be Alabama and beat them. Only unwillingness to admit fault and make change limits progress. This year is just another year of wasted talent and opportunity. Unfortunate reality.
Tom, I sincerely appreciate all your work at the O-Zone but moving forward there don’t need to be any more stories about the Buckeyes in the playoffs. This is not a championship–B1G or Nat’l– team. You and Gerd talked last night about how the committee couldn’t/wouldn’t look past the Bucks loss at Iowa. It’s deja vu and what makes it worse the committee can point to games like Oregon State and Minnesota where they absolutely gashed our defense. This team is not going to bounce back from this loss and the losses are going to continue. What it would take to get the Bucks back into the NC discussion is a herculean effort and this team doesn’t have that mentality.
The Buckeyes have a better chance of touching their right elbows with their right hands than they do getting into the playoff. The biggest decision they face is if they want to watch the games and where.
I absolutely agree with your colmn. Cant get any simpler than zero chance. Much better to get our face kicked in last night than again in the CFP anyways. Im looking forward to new years day at the poulan weed eater bowl.
I’m a glass is half full kind of guy. However, I don’t think this is a playoff team. Especially with these types of issues this deep into the season. I just want to ruin Michigan’s playoff hopes at this point.
Amen.
Really! This team will be lucky to win 3 if it’s last 5 games. No friggin way does it make it to the playoffs. A waste of the space on your website
Really? Doesn’t seem so simple to me. If Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma win out they are in with very little debate. If you replace Oklahoma with Texas in my scenario, there would be more debate but I think Texas gets the nod over OSU. It’s a moot point anyway, unless Ohio State completes the greatest mid-season turnaround in college football history (they are getting worse every week), but I guess you had to write the column…
duke lost so they now have 2…
Wrong! The committee won’t forgive this Iowa-type loss to an unranked team. And why are we even bringing this up after that abortion of a performance?! It shocks me that the thought of any post-season play would cross anyone’s mind given how broken this team is. This wasn’t simply a one-off random loss. Everyone who follows college football saw this coming. This team has had the same glaring problems week in and week out and have been getting worse.