Once or twice a year, college football has its trademark Upset Saturday.
It happened a week ago, when five top-15 teams lost on one day. That was a pretty exciting day of college football.
And then there are the Saturdays that are the college football equivalent of when a fireworks company accidentally sets off a 20-minute show worth of explosives in about five seconds. That was this week.
No. 2 Georgia lost to LSU.
No. 6 West Virginia lost to Iowa State.
No. 7 Washington lost to Oregon.
No. 8 Penn State lost to Michigan State.
No. 5 Notre Dame, No. 9 Texas, and No. 10 UCF barely escaped against unranked opponents.
Ohio State’s unimpressive performance against a middling Minnesota team was probably the second-best win for a top-10 team. It was that kind of day.
In all, eight ranked teams lost. So what does that mean for the College Football Playoff picture?
Below, we’ll take a look at which teams still have a realistic shot to get in to the College Football Playoff, based on the criteria the committee has used before.
Two weeks ago, there were 33 Power 5 teams on the list. Today there are just 18.
Here are the criteria we’re working with.
Your program is named Alabama
The Crimson Tide have made the Playoff in each of the four seasons. They did it in 2017 despite not winning their division, not winning their conference, having zero wins over top-15 teams, and entering the postseason off of a two-score loss in their regular season finale.
The normal rules don’t apply.
Until you see the Tide on the outside of the Playoff looking in, just assume they have an auto-bid every year.
You are an undefeated Power 5 conference champ
No unbeaten Power 5 champion has ever been left out of the field. Major independents like Notre Dame would qualify as well.
You are a one-loss Power 5 conference champ
Oklahoma and Georgia got in this way in 2017, Clemson and Washington did in 2016, Alabama, Michigan State, and Oklahoma in 2015, and Ohio State, Alabama, and Oregon did in 2014.
TCU and Baylor didn’t in 2014, but they were co-champs and didn’t play a conference title game.
No team that has finished 12-1 with a Power 5 Conference Championship Game win has ever been left out.
You are a one-loss Power 5 team
If your regular season resume is strong enough and your loss is early enough in the year, you can overcome not winning your conference.
Ohio State got in this way in 2016, thanks to road wins over top-10 Oklahoma and Wisconsin and a home win over top-5 Michigan.
Wisconsin missed out after losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game in 2017.
Alabama got in this way in 2017, despite losing its last game and having zero wins over top-15 teams. (See “Your Program Is Alabama” above)
You are a two-loss Power 5 conference champ
No two-loss team has ever made the College Football Playoff, but they have gotten close. Penn State was an 11-2 Big Ten champ in 2016 and finished No. 5 in the rankings. Ohio State did the same thing in 2016.
Once you lose your second game, you are all but eliminated from the Playoff discussion.
In a 2007 scenario, where the season devolves into a Thunderdome of massive upsets and everyone has two losses, you’d probably have a decent shot. But that doesn’t happen often.
We’re probably one more Upset Saturday away from having to start tracking those as well.
You are an undefeated Group of 5 conference champ
UCF went 12-0 and was ranked No. 12 in 2017. They were behind a three-loss Auburn team, and one spot ahead of 9-4 Stanford.
Houston went 12-1 in 2015 and was ranked No. 18.
This is ridiculous and unfair to basically half of FBS.
But theoretically, an unbeaten Group of 5 champ could get one of the top four spots.
The season started with all 130 FBS teams having at least some shot at making the final four. Now, only 18 teams are left in one of those groups that has a good chance to make it. Three more from the Group of 5 are at least theoretically in the picture.
So who is still alive for the 2018 College Football Playoff race?
Unbeaten Power 5 Teams (5 remaining)
Alabama, Clemson, NC State, Notre Dame, Ohio State
We entered the week with eight unbeaten Power 5 teams. Only three of them won this week. Colorado, Georgia, and West Virginia lost. Clemson and NC State didn’t play. The Wolfpack travels to Clemson on Saturday, so this number will be at a maximum of four next week.
One-loss Power 5 Teams (13 remaining)
Colorado, Duke, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky, LSU, Michigan, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas, Washington State, West Virginia
Miami, Penn State, Washington, and Wisconsin all lost their second games this weekend.
Unbeaten Group of 5 Teams (3 remaining)
Cincinnati, UCF, USF
The only three remaining non-Power 5 teams are all from the AAC, and they will all play each other in a three-week span from November 10-23.
Clear as day!