It’s way too early to start thinking about the College Football Playoff rankings.
There’s a full month of regular season games left to play, and then another weekend of conference championship games. One or more of them could – and likely will – explode into a glorious carnival of upsets and chaos.
It is not, however, too early to start looking at a few things that could happen to help Ohio State’s playoff chances significantly.
The first few items on that list involve internal things like “develop an actual rushing offense” and “score touchdowns in the red zone occasionally” and “don’t give up a trillion yards on defense.”
If those things don’t happen, this whole discussion is academic.
But let’s for just a moment assume that some… or most… or perhaps all of those things do improve to at least a reasonable degree. Then what?
Then the Buckeyes need to win out, beating Michigan and winning the Big Ten Championship.
Do that, and they’re very likely headed for the Playoff.
There are a few scenarios where all of the above happens and they still get the shaft on Selection Sunday.
If the SEC gets two teams in, that would be a serious issue.
If Clemson and Notre Dame finish unbeaten, and at least two of the SEC, Big 12 and Pac 12 champions is 12-1 or better, you’re going to be sweating out that Sunday morning as well.
But the odds are strongly stacked against that. History has shown that a lot of the teams near the top of the rankings now won’t finish anywhere close to there.
Here are the 15 regular season games to watch in other leagues that could make the Buckeyes’ road to the Playoff a lot easier.
The assumptions below center on a normal-ish season.
If things go completely off the rails, it’s theoretically possible for a two-loss OSU team to get in. But that would involve a near-cataclysmic combination of upsets just about every week.
November 3
Alabama at LSU: This is going to feel disgusting and wrong, but you’re an Alabama fan for the next month.
Here’s why: There is no realistic scenario where the Tide lose twice, and if they’re 11-1 or 12-1, you have to just assume they’ll get in. So they might as well spend the next month obliterating LSU and whoever they play in the conference title game and ensuring that the SEC only gets one spot. So go ahead and say it: Roll Tide.
Georgia at Kentucky: One of these one-loss SEC teams is going to become a two-loss team this weekend. If Georgia loses, it’s probably better just from a brand name-perspective, but either way, someone is getting a second loss.
West Virginia at Texas: Same deal as above – either Texas or WVU is going to be out of the Playoff race by Saturday night. Whoever loses, it’s a win for the Buckeyes.
Notre Dame at Northwestern: The Wildcats haven’t been nearly as good as their record might indicate, but they could really help out their friends in Columbus by winning this weekend.
Oklahoma at Texas Tech: If you’re going to the game in the Horseshoe already, you’ll be well-prepared to root for Texas Tech. It’s another team that throws the ball a ton, doesn’t run it, and doesn’t play a lick of defense, all while wearing black jerseys.
November 10
Clemson at Boston College: This might be the best chance left for Clemson to lose, including the ACC title game. If they lose, and BC wins out, the Eagles would go to that title game instead, likely knocking Clemson out of – or at least way down – the Playoff picture.
Auburn at Georgia: Auburn is kind of a mess, but outside of the Kentucky game, this is probably Georgia’s best chance for a loss. They get both the Tigers and Georgia Tech at home.
Oklahoma State at Oklahoma: Bedlam has been surprisingly predictable for a series whose name implies utter insanity. The Cowboys have only two wins against the Sooners, dating back to 2003. Can you imagine a bitter rivalry being that lopsided? (pause for everyone to slowly turn and look north)
Texas at Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are better than their typical offering this year. The offense is one of the 20 best in the nation, and the defense is merely bad and not historically atrocious. This represents an improvement over most of Kliff Kingsbury’s teams over the years. If they get hot, they could help the Buckeyes more than almost any other team this month.
November 17
West Virginia at Oklahoma State: The Big 12’s backloaded schedule also means that you’re going to spend a lot of time in November hoping that Mike Gundy’s team is as impressive as his glorious, glorious mullet.
Notre Dame vs. Syracuse: This would definitely be the most hilarious game for the Irish to blow their Playoff chances in. It’s going to be played at Yankee Stadium, and if you haven’t seen the uniforms Notre Dame will wear, they are… something.
The Fighting Irish.
The @Yankees.Two Iconic Brands.
One Uniform.One Night.
Yankee Stadium.November 17 – 2:30pm.#GoIrish ☘️ #ShamrockSeries pic.twitter.com/bH6yr4BfiG
— Notre Dame Football (@NDFootball) August 16, 2018
November 23
Oklahoma at West Virginia: There is a chance these two teams will play in back-to-back weeks. The Big 12 Championship Game just pairs the top two teams in the standings. As long as the Big 12 title winner has two losses, they won’t threaten a 12-1 Buckeye team.
Washington at Washington State: The Huskies are riding a 5-game win streak in the Apple Cup and have won eight of the last nine meetings.
November 24
LSU at Texas A&M: If the Bayou Bengals somehow beat Alabama this weekend, their trip to College Station is the last realistic chance for them to pick up a loss. It certainly can’t hurt to give a possible Playoff contender another loss.
Notre Dame at USC: The Trojans are a complete tire fire right now, but they’ve won the last two meetings between these teams at the Coliseum. Without a conference championship game for the Irish to play in, the Buckeyes would really love to see an upset here, at Northwestern, or Syracuse. There’s not a great chance of any of those playing out, but it only needs to happen once.
Norhtwestern isn’t as good as their record. 3 losses by a total of 22 points.
Ohio State one less by….29 points
Common opponent Purdue I own
t rub it in.
Lost to Michigan by 3.
But they aren’t as good as their record…. they are just currently the front runner to play Ohio Staate or Michigan in the conference championship having already defeated Wisconsin and Michigan State. They hold the tiebreaker over both Wisconsin and Purdue, with Iowa being the only team with shot to keep them out of the CCG. But they aren’t as good as they look folks.
The Bucks are my favourite team, but the Buchanans are in second, and I just love the way he coaches. What the wildcats have going for them is, they win when no one expects them to. Like the Cardale Jones team. Watching the wild cats I often wonder “how did they win?” Watching games like Iowa last year and Purdue this year, I wonder “How did they lose so bad.”
Talking Ohio State and the CFP, every one should be praying Norhtwestern beats Notre Dame, because with that Purdue loss, one loss Ohio State isn’t getting in ahead of one loss anybody. At least a loss to Northwestern would probably be perceived as about equal to a loos against Purdue. After Northwestern, Notre Dame has little competition.
I actually quite like this years team, but the committee might consider this loss to Purdue worse than two losses to upper tier teams in the SEC. And this year in the B1G there’s just no one for them to beat. Much as I love Northwestern neither them nor Iowa in the CCG are going to propel us into the CFP.. We need other people tools and lose badly. We not only need Northwestern to win, we need them to win by at least a couple touchdowns.
And I’m not sure this isn’t Mcihigan’s year in the BiG. Everything is aligned for them, and a Michigan victory over Ohio State will do more for them than an Ohio State victory over Michigan will do for us, because ND already beat them. What we need right now is a whole bunch of losing by a whole bunch of teams. With TCU tanking and the B1G full of 3 and four loss teams we can’t be the best. We have to hope a bunch of other teams just prove to be worse.
Best case scenario, Iowa still has two looses at the ned of the year, and tOSU beats Michigan, and Northwestern beats Notre Dame But the team up north looks awful good this year. That game is definitely not a given. Clemson is probably in, Alabama is probably in. To advance in the CFP you probably have to beat one of those two. Things aren’t looking good.
That being said, I have enjoyed the team. But in this day and age, you have to have some intuitive tackers in the middle on the back end, and the inside linebackers and safeties so far haven’t been up to the job. And straight up the middle is what you have to stop first. If you can’t stop that, no one with a brain is going to run anywhere else.
As an fyi texas is already out of the playoff race and a two loss osu has less than a zero percent chance of a playoff. osu can only hope that they only have two losses at the end of the season.
If there’s ever a team who makes it into a four team playoff with two losses it’ll be coached by a guy whose name ryhmes with Satan. And they’d still win the damn thing.
I think this is a great article but just a couple of weeks premature. Let’s wait and see how our Buckeyes play against Husker and Sparty to see if they are a legit CFP contender before looking too far ahead.
Number 1 criteria for the Committee is the eye test, so you’re selling a fairy tale. Based on that criteria Ohio State would still end the season, assuming they can even come close to running the table and the top 4 teams to lose twice, or get equally blown out by a nobody level opponent before the Committee would waste any time turning the page to revisit Ohio State. There’s exactly 1 team left with a potential shot at making the CFP, and that’s unfortunately the trailer trash to the north, the skunk bears.
This is the most horribly mismanaged group of talent of the 2018 season. When the playoff committee said they were weighing the eye test, they were talking directly to programs like Ohio State and UCF.
Against a literal perennial bottom feeder, getting slapped like a 5 dollar prostitute on the streets of NYC just can’t be erased.
The Buckeyes would have to choke slam every team remaining on the schedule by 40 points or more just to get anyones attention that matters, and it still wouldn’t be enough. Getting dusted by junk programs is becoming an Urban Meyer led program tradition
I spend disposable income for tickets and travel expenses so I’ll continue going to watch the Buckeyes wherever they play, but it’s hard to be very enthusiastic, or optimistic, when you already know that at some point they’re going to have a bottom feeder level internal meltdown on the field. THAT is on coaching who are too entitled to stay on top of their teaching to prevent the annual collapse. The TALENT is clearly there. The coaching isn’t.
Why would somebody slap a $5 prostitute? More than reasonable price and hardly insulting. Date rapes, gang rapes, prostitutes….why so much deviant sexual activity attached to your comments?
Her pimp will slap a 5 dollar prostitute. Why the deviant sexual activity….because pedophiles like you come to this forum.
No rational person would think the Buckeyes have ANY chance of making the playoffs … and they flat out don’t deserve it anyway. They stink for a 7-1 team!
49-20 their resume is shot unless they blow out these next 4 games and that ain’t going to happen sorry but get real ??
Heh. Tom, you ignorant ****!
Seriously, you’re quite the closet optimist. Given what’s transpired so far, there’s at least enough of a chance for either Nebraska or certainly Maryland to knock off the Buckeyes, much less Sparty or their big brother that those scenarios can’t be laughed at.
That said, the biggest obstacles should the Buckeyes somehow win out will likely be 49 – 20, 55 – 24, and 31 – 0. those are the games the nationals care about. Yes, past years aren’t supposed to count but you’ve said yourself they do and I agree – it’s one reason why ‘Bama gets passes with 1 loss no matter when that loss occurs. Once they’re in the playoff the only teams to beat them have been Clemson and the Buckeyes so they’re playoff gold until proven otherwise. Getting blown out by not only Clemson but bad teams as well doesn’t make for goodwill second chances.
Can’t do it, Tom. Geaux Jeaux! Yes, there’s no real scenario for ‘Bama losing but I can’t bring myself to root for ’em. Plus Burrow is too much of a fan favourite to go against so somehow ‘Bama must lose twice. It’s at least as plausible as what you’ve written above.
Best for Kentuck to win out in the SEC East. As you say, brand name matters. Hate rooting against Tom Herman BUT again, brand name matters and WVA doesn’t have it (though they do have the ‘sexy QB pick’). Plus WVA still has 2 decent chances to lose after Tejas so while I can’t bring myself to root against Burrow, Herman MUST go down! Don’t think NW can take down the ‘Domers, but I don’t know anyone who thought they’d take down Wisky either. Most realistic shot for taking down Okie is whomever they have to play again in their title game. As you note, Bedlam really isn’t and Tech doesn’t have the D to do it.
BC or bust in the ACC because you’re right, if the Eagles can’t take down Clemson no one in that dumpster fire of a conference will. If the Eagles can run the ball, they’ve got a puncher’s chance. If Clemson shuts them down, say goodnight, Gracie!
Not sure why you put Gawja/Auburn because if you root for ‘Bama then it won’t matter as they’ll give Gawja a second loss and if you want Auburn juju you want it for ‘Bama and not wasting it here.
Game’s in Pullman and not sure I see Wazzu losing this time.
I think it’d be more fun to see Domer hopes smashed vs the Prophylactics than The ‘Cuse, but I’m just sadistic that way.