Five Predictions: Cincinnati at Ohio State

People will read last week’s five predictions and say, “Tony, you got four of your five predictions completely wrong.”

To which I would say, “Only four? Make sure you don’t look at the bonus predictions.”

I would then remind them of something that Thomas Edison said when he failed to invent the light bulb. I have not failed, I’ve just found four ways to be wrong about predictions.

We don’t need to get into what I got wrong last week, but I will for honesty’s sake.

Prediction No. 1: Freshmen will account for three scores.
Outcome: Failed it. I was close, however, because sophomores accounted for five touchdowns.

Prediction No. 2: Chris Olave will catch a touchdown.
Outcome: Nailed it. Olave hauled in a 29-yarder on a post route for the score.

Prediction No. 3: Ohio State will force at least three turnovers.
Outcome: Failed it. The Buckeyes forced a pair of fumbles and came away with one interception, so if you think about it, I was basically right about this one.

Prediction No. 4: JK Dobbins will have at least one rush of 30 or more yards.
Outcome: Failed it. Dobbins’ long was only 17 yards.

Prediction No. 5: Freshman defensive ends Zach Harrison and Javontae Jean-Baptiste will combine for at least 1.5 sacks.
Outcome: Failed it. Harrison nearly came away with a sack or two in this game, but couldn’t quite hold on. JJB finished with two tackles.

You know, after looking at it, I didn’t miss these too badly. That gives me hope moving forward.

Weekly Total: 1 of 5 (20%)
Season Total: 1 of 5 (20%)

But last week was last week and we all have to move on and we can’t continue to bask in how I totally predicted that Chris Olave would score a touchdown. We have more important things to do than talk about that correct prediction and any other predictions that may have also been correct.

It is now time to move on to five new correct predictions.

1. Cincinnati running back Michael Warren will be held under 70 yards rushing.

Michael Warren ran for 92 yards last week against UCLA, but it took 26 attempts to get it done. He averaged just 3.5 yards per carry. Yeah, he’s a strong runner, but he was held in check by the Bruin defense. We’ll learn a lot more about the OSU defense this week, but I feel like we saw quite a bit of what this run defense can do.

2. Chase Young will have at least one sack.

No, this isn’t cherry picking. Everybody knows my predictions about sacks end up going horribly awry. I have probably just doomed Chase Young. And this wasn’t even a Stupid Tony prediction. This one was all me. Let’s see how he does against redshirt freshman left tackle Lorenz Metz, a 6-foot-9 German.

3. Malik Harrison will have at least 1.5 tackles for loss.

My September resolution is to talk about Malik Harrison more and that begins right now. He had five tackles, two TFLs, and a sack last week. That seems like a good batch of numbers here, but his total tackles will probably be higher.

4. Chris Olave will score again.

Hey man, when you only get one prediction completely right last week, why go away from it this week? Chris Olave is the only reliable thing I have in my life right now. I’m not turning my back on him now.

5. Justin Fields will complete less than 62% of his passes.

Before Dwayne Haskins was Ohio State’s starting quarterback, Buckeye quarterbacks routinely had games with under 50% completion percentages. JT Barrett was good for one or two a year. Braxton Miller was good for three or four, as were Terrelle Pryor and Craig Krenzel. I only say that to remind people that should Justin Fields fall under 50% on Saturday, it’s not the end of the world. The kid is still a sophomore, remember. Since Ryan Day arrived, however, only once has a starting quarterback been under 50% for a whole game. That came in the 2017 Big Ten Championship Game when JT Barrett hurried back from a knee injury. He completed 12-of-26 passes in that game. So why have I made this prediction 62% or worse? It just felt like a number that wasn’t completely stealing on my part.

Bonus: Ohio State will force at least two turnovers.

One of them feels like a Pete Werner interception. The other will probably be a Josh Proctor interception late like every other game this season.

Bonus: JK Dobbins will be held under 91 yards rushing.

I didn’t see enough from JK Dobbins last week to make me think he’ll have a better game this week against a tougher opponent. One home run could make this prediction incorrect, of course.

Bonus: Baron Browning will have a career high in tackles.

I demoted this from the official predictions because I suddenly got a bad feeling that Malik Harrison was going to get all of the tackles. Browning’s career high is six, by the way.