The field of possible College Football Playoff teams continues to shrink following a week filled with chaos and upsets.
The teams ranked #3, #7, #11, #17, #19, #20, #23, #24 all lost. Meanwhile, the Buckeyes were sitting safe at home, enjoying their off-week and watching the college football world burn on TV.
This weekend saw a number of teams suffer a loss that likely knocked them out of Playoff contention, while others now see their season on the brink after losing for the first time.
Below we’ll take a look at which teams still have a realistic shot to get in to the College Football Playoff, based on the criteria the committee has used before. Basically, we’ll assume a team is still alive until they cross a threshold which has definitively eliminated teams in the past.
As a quick reminder, here are the criteria that it normally takes to get one of those top four spots.
Your program is named Alabama
The Crimson Tide have made the Playoff in each of the five seasons. They did it in 2017 despite not winning their division, not winning their conference, having zero wins over top-15 teams, and entering the postseason off of a two-score loss in their regular season finale.
The normal rules don’t apply.
Until you see the Tide on the outside of the Playoff looking in, just assume they have an auto-bid every year.
You are an undefeated Power 5 conference champ
No unbeaten Power 5 champion has ever been left out of the field.
Major independents like Notre Dame or BYU would either possibly or likely qualify as well.
You are a one-loss Power 5 conference champ
Oklahoma got in this way in 2018 and 2017, Georgia did it in 2017, Clemson and Washington did in 2016, Alabama, Michigan State, and Oklahoma in 2015, and Ohio State, Alabama, and Oregon did in 2014.
TCU and Baylor didn’t in 2014, but they were co-champs and didn’t play a conference title game.
Last year, Ohio State was the first team to finish 12-1 with a Power 5 Conference Championship Game win to be left out. And that required three unbeaten teams, plus another 12-1 major conference champion.
It’s worth noting that the 2018 Buckeyes were also ranked behind an 11-2 Georgia team that didn’t win its conference. So if you’re a team in this category hoping to get in, try not to lose to Purdue by 29 points.
You are a one-loss non-champion Power 5 team
If your regular season resume is strong enough and your loss is early enough in the year, you can overcome not winning your conference.
Ohio State got in this way in 2016, thanks to road wins over top-10 Oklahoma and Wisconsin and a home win over top-5 Michigan.
Wisconsin missed out after losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship Game in 2017.
Alabama got in this way in 2017, despite losing its last game and having zero wins over top-15 teams. (See “Your Program Is Alabama” above)
You are a two-loss Power 5 conference champ
No two-loss team has ever made the College Football Playoff, but they have gotten close. Penn State was an 11-2 Big Ten champ in 2016 and finished No. 5 in the rankings. Ohio State did the same thing in 2016.
Once you lose your second game, you are all but eliminated from the Playoff discussion. Again, we’ll mention that a two-loss Georgia was ranked No. 5 last season without even winning the conference. But as far as the Playoff field is concerned, No. 5 and No. 25 in the final rankings are functionally the same thing.
In a 2007 scenario, where the season devolves into a Thunderdome of massive upsets and everyone has two losses, you’d probably have a decent shot. But that doesn’t happen often.
Right now, two-loss teams aren’t listed below. If things start to get crazy later this year, that category could get added.
You are an undefeated Group of 5 conference champ
UCF went 12-0 and was ranked No. 12 in 2017. They were behind a three-loss Auburn team, and one spot ahead of 9-4 Stanford.
Houston went 12-1 in 2015 and was ranked No. 18.
This is ridiculous and unfair to basically half of FBS.
But theoretically, an unbeaten Group of 5 champ could get one of the top four spots.
The season started with all 130 FBS teams having at least some shot at making the final four. Two weeks ago, there were 36 teams listed below. Now, that list is down to 22.
So who is still alive for the 2019 College Football Playoff race?
Unbeaten Power 5 Teams (9 remaining)
Clemson, Baylor, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Ohio State, Penn State, Alabama, LSU.
Wake Forest drops out after losing to Louisville. Florida lost its first game of the year to LSU, and Georgia suffered a shocking upset to South Carolina.
Yes, the Big Ten has nearly half of all unbeaten Power 5 teams left. And that doesn’t even include preseason conference favorite Michigan.
Look for lots of “Can the Big Ten get three teams in the Playoff?” talk on your favorite sports TV networks this week.
One-loss Power 5 Teams (10 remaining)
Wake Forest, Michigan, Notre Dame, Arizona State, Utah, Oregon, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Missouri.
Virginia, Texas, Iowa, and Arizona all suffered their second losses of the season and fell out of this group.
Unbeaten Group of 5 Teams (3 remaining)
Southern Methodist, Boise State, Appalachian State
Memphis drops out of this group after losing 30-28 at Temple. The other three teams at least have a theoretical shot to make the field, but they have to run the table, get a lot of help, and then have the committee decide to do something it has shown zero inclination to do at any point in history.
The bulldogs loss was a good loss-to another sec team. They should have moved up, with the sec bias in the polling. Osu’s loss was both bad and ugly.
It would depend who osu lost to. If it were wisc. and osu beat them in the championship, they’d be ok.
The problem with the polls is-they take last year, recruiting, then-this year into account. Putting some teams automatically behind, and unable to catch up without a perfect season.
Still lots of football left to be played. I’m curious if the “normal” rules apply- one bad loss and the committee pretends as if you’ve never existed- now that UGA is in that group (and yes, I know it wasn’t by 29 points on the road. Instead, it was at HOME vs a slop team). I think OK and LSU may hurdle OSU this week, maybe even deservedly so- maybe.
Anyone else notice that 2019 Alabama is like 2018 OSU- great offense and atrocious defense? They give up 4 TDs every game it seems.
I agree that if we win, we’re in no questions asked. That being said it is fun to speculate. For example, there’s a part of me that wants Alabama to win out and defeat LSU. Why? Because what will the committee do if LSU wins the SEC and Bama has one loss? I mean, the rules go out the window for them, and that would be their way to get two SEC teams in IF Ohio State were to have one loss. To take it even further, what if LSU wins the SEC and Alabama and Ohio State both have one loss BUT Ohio State wins the Big10? I would love to see them try to justify changing the criteria yet again.