There are just two weeks left in the regular season, and the list of possible postseason destinations for the Ohio State football team is shrinking by the week.
After the Buckeyes’ 26-6 win over Michigan State, you can now pretty much cross everything short of the New Year’s Six off your list. Barring a loss to Maryland or something even stranger than that, you can say so long to the Citrus Bowl and Outback Bowl.
Now, it’s just a matter of whether the Bucks end up in the College Football Playoff, the Rose Bowl, or another New Year’s Six game like the Peach, Sugar or Fiesta Bowls. Right now, the most likely destination is Pasadena.
That’s because despite the strong showing in East Lansing, this weekend didn’t do much to help the Buckeyes’ playoff chances. For the first time since 2009, every top-10 team in the AP poll won its Week 11 game.
If you want to see OSU in the Playoff, they’ll need a few upsets between now and Selection Sunday to make it happen.
Here are a few ways the rest of the season could play out.
Ohio State beats Maryland, Michigan, Northwestern
The Buckeyes would be 12-1 and Big Ten champions. No 12-1 conference champion has ever been left out of the College Football Playoff field before.
It could happen this year, if at least four of Alabama, Clemson, Notre Dame, Washington State, Oklahoma and West Virginia win out. It also wouldn’t help if Georgia beats Alabama and the committee gives the SEC two bids again.
If you want to see OSU in the Playoff, you want Alabama to win out, and every other team above to take a loss. Oklahoma and WVU will likely play each other in back-to-back weeks. A split would basically eliminate the Big 12.
Notre Dame has a dangerous game against Syracuse next week. Wazzu still has home games against Arizona and Washington and the Pac-12 title game.
As a 12-1 Big Ten champion, the worst-case scenario for OSU would be the Rose Bowl. Which is a pretty fantastic worst-case scenario.
Ohio State beats Maryland, loses to Michigan
At this point, the chances of a Playoff berth would basically drop to zero.
A two-loss team has never made it. Teams that don’t win their conference, and teams that lose their last game almost never make it unless they have the Alabama Auto-bid. The Buckeyes would be all three of those in this case.
This would also force OSU fans into the distasteful position of having to root for Michigan to win the Big Ten title over Northwestern.
If Michigan wins out, they are very likely to make the Playoff field. That would let the Rose Bowl choose another Big Ten team.
No offense to Northwestern and its 27 losses and 216 living alumni (all numbers approximate). But the folks in Pasadena would probably be happier with a 10-2 Buckeye team and its massive fanbase packing their stadium than a section and a half of fans in purple watching what could be a 7-6 Wildcats team at that point.
If Northwestern wins the Big Ten Championship, then the ‘Cats would go to the Rose Bowl no matter what. That would leave the Buckeyes in one of the other New Year’s Six games.
It’s extremely unlikely, but at least theoretically possible that they could get passed over and fall to the Citrus Bowl in that scenario.
Ohio State beats Maryland and Michigan, loses to Northwestern
This would leave the Buckeyes in the Sugar, Peach, or Fiesta Bowls unless the rest of the top-10 turns into the Red Wedding in the next three weeks.
Northwestern would go to the Rose Bowl, and Michigan would likely go to another non-Rose, non-Playoff New Year’s Six game.
Ohio State loses to Maryland, beats Michigan
Unless Michigan also lost to Indiana next weekend, the Wolverines would still win the Big Ten East and play Northwestern for the Big Ten title.
Assuming that the Playoff doesn’t let in a 2-loss Michigan team, the winner in Indianapolis would go to the Rose Bowl.
This would likely send the Buckeyes to the Sugar, Peach, or Fiesta Bowls.
Ohio State loses to Maryland and Michigan
This is the only scenario where a trip to the Citrus Bowl is anything other than a tremendous longshot. And even here, it wouldn’t be a given.
Alabama is not losing.
Clemson is not losing.
2 spots with ND, Big 12, Georgia, WashSt–face it, folks. We ain’t getting in. And honestly, I wouldn’t want to play WashSt. in the Rose Bowl with our defense as sketchy as it is–they aren’t a powerhouse, but our defense stops less than a dollar store tissue stops a broken water pipe.
If Michigan doesn’t beat us, they will NEVER beat us. This is THE year to do it–if they choke–Harbaugh will be in hot water, potentially.
OSU/LSU is interesting. LSU would beat us, I think. OSU/WVU or Kentucky has border potential for interesting games. We would win those games.
Go Bama! They’re getting in the CFP regardless, so we may as well root for whatever benefits the Buckeyes.
Dominate wins over Maryland and Northwestern and a nail biter win over Michigan I think we start jumping spots and end up 4 seed. However, I am not bullish on winning the game at this point. Progress has been made but MSU is not a great offense so my enthusiasm for the drastic improvement the defense showed is somewhat tempered. Although Haskins showed some grit with is running this week he is still vulnerable to pressure that will surely be present vs ttun. If I were a betting man I would go Rose Bowl vs WSU.
I don’t care what bowl. I just want to see LSU vs OSU!!
My percentages
Rose 55
Playoffs 25
Other NY6 15
Citrus/ Outback 5
Those are probably pretty close. Rose Bowl definitely looks at least 50/50 or maybe higher.
Unless every 1 loss team now loses before then, the Buckeyes are not getting into the Playoff. If it’s Alabama and then Ohio State with 1 loss and a bunch of 2 loss teams, the Buckeyes get in (or if it’s Alabama, then the Buckeyes and 2 other 1-loss teams, and everyone else has at least 2 losses).
Rose is the most likely destination IF they can beat TTUN only (still far from a ‘given’).
My percentages:
Rose 50%
Other NY6 35%
Citrus/Outback 10%
Playoff 5%
^^^’Bama, Buckeyes and ONE other 1-loss team.