One week after the Buckeyes’ chances at the College Football Playoff were basically dead, a 62-39 demolition of arch-rival Michigan may have brought them back to life.
Ohio State is now headed to Indianapolis to face Northwestern for the Big Ten Championship.
If the Buckeyes lose that game, they’ll almost certainly head to the Peach Bowl or Fiesta Bowl. And after LSU’s 74-72 loss in 7 overtimes on Saturday, they likely wouldn’t get a chance to play Joe Burrow in the Peach Bowl, either.
Beat the Wildcats and then things get interesting.
Here’s a look at how things could shake out on conference championship weekend and what it would mean for the Buckeyes.
Let’s lay down some ground rules.
First, Alabama is in. Whether or not you think that’s fair, it’s probably just a reality.
Second, Notre Dame is in. At 12-0 without a conference championship game to play, the Irish are a virtual lock to get one of the top four spots.
Third, Clemson is in with a win in the ACC title game against Pitt. It’s probably at least 50/50 that they would make it even with a loss to the Panthers, but if they win, they’re in.
That means barring a huge upset, three of the four spots are very likely spoken for.
So what would OSU have to do to claim that final berth in the College Football Playoff?
Step 1: Beat Northwestern
This should be obvious, but if they don’t win the Big Ten Championship game – possibly with some style points – they’re not getting in. A 17-14 win would probably require a lot more help from other teams than a 42-17 victory.
Step 2: Alabama beats Georgia
This may seem odd at first glance, but you should be screaming “ROLL TIDE” at the TV all throughout the SEC Championship Game.
You should actually do that all the time at random moments, just because it’s kind of fun.
Big tax refund? ROLL TIDE!
Get a raise at work? ROLL TIDE!
Hit a series of green lights on your way home from work? ROLL TIDE!
But I digress.
If you assume the Tide is in whether they win or lose, the Buckeyes should want them to win. If they do, that should knock Georgia out of the Playoff race.
A Georgia win would be the worst possible outcome, not only for OSU, but the rest of the country as well. That would almost certainly mean another year with the SEC making up half of the Playoff field.
Step 3: Texas beats Oklahoma
This isn’t a 100% necessity, but it would definitely help.
An Oklahoma win turns the race for the final Playoff spot into a beauty contest between the Buckeyes and Sooners. Ohio State would have both the best win and the worse loss.
Which team would the Committee pick at that point? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
On the other hand, a Texas win would mean that every Big 12 team has at least two losses. That would basically knock the league out of the Playoff conversation.
The Pac-12 is already out, thanks to Washington’s win over Washington State on Friday.
If the Big 12 is out, too, that would leave one spot for the SEC champion, one spot for the ACC champion (assuming it’s Clemson), one spot for Notre Dame, and one spot for the only other 1-loss Power 5 team.
If you need a hint on who that would be, they just beat their rival 62-39 on Saturday.
Ok. Cool. Hook ’em.
What about UCF?
Fair or not, the Playoff Committee has spent all season like a bouncer at a fancy club who keeps checking his clipboard and telling the Knights “you’re not on the list.”
They’re 12-0 and ranked No. 9 in the nation at the moment.
UCF jumped Ohio State last week, but that was more about how bad the Buckeyes looked at Maryland than anything UCF did.
It’s almost a lock that OSU will leapfrog the Knights again this week, and remain ahead of them next week with a win against Northwestern.
It doesn’t help that UCF’s star quarterback McKenzie Milton suffered a gruesome knee injury during his team’s 38-10 win over USF.
Without Milton, the Knights are a lot less explosive, and probably even less appealing to the Committee.
Again, it’s not really fair, but that’s how things look right now.
What happens if the Buckeyes don’t make the Playoff?
If OSU beats Northwestern on Saturday, but doesn’t wind up in the top-four of the Playoff rankings, they would go to the Rose Bowl to play the winner of the Pac-12 Championship.
That would either be a matchup against Washington or Utah.
As far as consolation prizes go, a New Year’s Day in Pasadena is about as good as it gets.
All this week in practice, the mantra should be: Northwestern > Purdue.
I’m facing the thing I iike least. Ohio State against Northwestern, My two favourite teams And Ohio State needs 59-0 win. Maybe even a 62-39 win, but a big convincing win of some sort. We definitely need Tom Herman to help us out once again. That’s pretty much how I see it. Ohio State needs blow-out against Northwestrn. That gets them in no matter what. 21-10 probably sees them miss out.
But I wore my Cardale Jones jersey for the first time this year and look what happened. I promise to wear it next week too.
Notre Dame is a joke. No conference championship and schedule wasn’t that strong. Had several close games to pathetic teams.
I’m sure I won’t be the only Buckeye curious to see where the committee ranks OSU after it’s convincing win over TTUN. I’m guessing 5, but would be thrilled with 4. Either way, if OU thumps TEX next weekend we will probably be out. I hear Pasadena is nice this time of year.
Both Don and Andrew have valid points. This OSU squad can’t afford to overlook anyone in a championship game. Regarding Oklahoma, their substantial position over OSU (4 spots higher, same record and same type of team) has been a mystery. OSU’s defense IS better, OU has the less nauseating loss. Both teams are currently putting tons of points on the board a la Arena Football. I can’t see UT beating OU twice, so the debate will be lively IF the Bucks beat Northwestern…until UGA beats Alabama 🙂
Thanks for the shout-out.
I agree, this team is too inconsistent to take anyone for granted. That said, for the first time I can get a realistic ‘ceiling’ for how they COULD play against Clemson or ‘Bama (I think ND is a paper tiger again). That’s just it – it’s a ceiling. We’ve seen painfully up-close what the ‘floor’ is as well.
There was a time when I wanted this team to have nothing to do with the playoffs. Between the poor D, and occasionally inconsistent O, the atrocious coaching decisions, and the incessant penalties, I was convinced that we would be embarrassed by anyone in the playoffs we faced. After watching the team finally play to their potential yesterday, I am now wavering. If they can put as complete a game against NW next week as they did yesterday, maybe we could be competitive. Mind you, I don’t think anyone is beating Alabama this year, but we might be better than either ND or Clemson. Go Bucks!!!!
Yes Oklahoma has a lousy defense. I hope Texas can beat them and knock them out of the playoff talk. Let’s take care of Northwestern next week first. Don’t take it for granted that it will be a win for us. The coaches and players need to build on this win and get better.
For weeks after the Purdue game I’ve harangued you that the playoff hopes were dead when you included them in this article.
Then 62 – 39 happened. Within moments a close friend (an Oklahoma grad) posted on Facebook: “Where are all the Big 12 haters talking about the lack of defense in the Big 10? Over 100 pts scored. Can’t they play ANY defense there?” I pointed out to him that 59 – 56 is 115 points versus 62 – 39 is 101 to which he replied “Over 100 is over 100”. It’s also worth noting (though I didn’t know when I replied to him) that Oklahoma has allowed 40 or more points six out of their 12 games including their last 4. Ohio State has allowed 40 or more points twice.
I have no idea who the Committee will pick any more than I did that the Buckeyes would explode as they did yesterday, but as sad as it is for my friend, Oklahoma must blow out Texas to have a chance because while 49 – 20 SHOULD exclude the Buckeyes, one of the few things the Committee has been consistent on in their short existence is “What have you done for me lately”, which favors the Buckeyes and also they lost to their rival by 3 where the Buckeyes destroyed theirs in historic (not hyperbole) fashion.