Any time Ohio State loses a game, the reasons are parsed over and then paraded down Main Street for the perceived shameful act that it was.
This has been the case for each of Urban Meyer’s eight losses in his six seasons at OSU.
Sixty-eight wins and eight losses. That is what Meyer’s Buckeye teams have done since 2012. It is one of the best marks in the nation in that span.
Almost all of those losses were unexpected, and yet most of them have one major characteristic in common.
In six of Meyer’s eight losses at Ohio State, a Buckeye quarterback had more carries than any one running back. And that’s also true of both losses this season.
Sacks also count as rushing attempts, so that skews the number somewhat, but not enough to erase a trend that seemingly has no end in sight.
Nineteen times Urban Meyer’s teams have had a quarterback finish a game with more rushing attempts than a running back. The Buckeyes are 13-6 in that span.
That’s a .684 winning percentage, which isn’t bad — it’s a touch below John Cooper’s .715 career mark at Ohio State.
The problem with that 13-6 number — other than it’s six losses in 19 games — is that six of those wins came when Braxton Miller was the quarterback.
With defenses able to dictate who runs the ball and who doesn’t against a read-option offense, it made sense when they had to pick their poison between Miller and Carlos Hyde. It does not make as much sense when choosing between J.T. Barrett and J.K. Dobbins.
Under Miller, the Buckeyes were 6-1 when he had more carries than any running back.
In the four seasons since then, however, Ohio State is 7-5 in games when a Buckeye quarterback has more carries than any of the running backs.
That’s a .583 winning percentage. For comparison’s sake, Brady Hoke’s winning percentage at Michigan was .608.
Now are you ready to get even more stupified?
What is Urban Meyer’s record when his quarterback doesn’t have more carries than a running back?
Brace yourselves, because it is 55-2. That’s a winning percentage of .965.
In other words, when a Buckeye quarterback hands the ball off more than he keeps it, Ohio State almost always wins.
The two losses where a running back led the team in rushing attempts were Penn State in 2016 and Clemson in 2013. Had the Buckeyes not had a complete mental collapse on special teams in that game, they would have a 56-1 mark. And had Braxton Miller’s shoulder not been completely shot against Clemson, the Buckeyes could conceivably have a 57-0 record when a running back leads the team in rushing attempts.
Is that just coincidence?
I don’t see how it can be.
After Saturday’s game, this current Buckeye team will have two 1,000-yard rushers on the roster — Mike Weber did it last year and J.K. Dobbins will do it this year. That’s enough proven production to allow the offense to rely on their abilities.
The lack of touches for the running backs isn’t about Tony Alford subbing in Weber. This problem predates Alford. It isn’t about Kevin Wilson and a pass-happy offense. This problem predates Wilson.
The issue is with the different ways a quarterback handles the ball in Meyer’s offense. Like all offenses, some of those quarterback rushes are scrambles, and those plays have kept many scoring drives alive. Then there is the constant use of the quarterback on short-yardage situations. They are incredibly effective, which is why Meyer’s calls it a “get-out-of-jail-free card.”
The main problem here is one that has already been mentioned — the reading of the defense to determine a hand-off or a keep allows the defense to keep the ball out of the best runners’ hands. This is not an effective way to get your best playmakers involved.
Did the fact that J.K. Dobbins only had six carries against Iowa cost the Buckeyes the game? No, but would more carries have made things a much different situation? Absolutely. Dobbins is the Buckeyes’ best player on offense and he is a threat to score at any moment. How could you not want him involved? And how could a defense allow it if they have a way to stop it?
Urban Meyer wants balance out of his offense, but he shouldn’t want it out of the rushing distribution because there is no evidence that it is helping.
In fact, there is only evidence that it is hurting.
A quarterback who can run is a powerful weapon to have.
An offense that allows a defense to remove its best player, however, can become powerless in a hurry.
If Urban Meyer truly wants to see his running backs get more carries, then he can’t leave it up to the opposing defense to make it happen. He has to do it on his own, and he has to do it soon.
A record of 55-2 is too much information for it to be a coincidence, and so is 13-6.
Welcome to Football 101.
Very few people could (legitimately) complain about the winning percentage since Meyer became head coach. Those same fans are prideful, and recognize that OSU is playing in rarified air on a consistent basis. So, when a GLARING and OBVIOUS problem keeps rearing its head in major games, fans aren’t going to be happy about it. Most rational fans realize OSU is going to lose some games, they just want OSU to lose at its best rather than at its most forgiving and inept. Meyer holds his players to high performance standards, so what’s good for the goose…
Bring Berry into the backfield to help blow open holes along with pulling guards like Huerman and Vannett used to do in this offense…especially in the 45 yards of the field that are 4 down territory.
Dan: I like this idea. I thought we would see Berry after his breakout performance a couple weeks ago. I like the idea of a fullback or any extra blocker on runs . . . with the zone read, the defense usually focuses on the tailback so JT has to keep the ball and run it. The use of an extra blocker would get Dobbins or Weber a better chance of clearing the line of scrimmage more often.
JT has made a lot of yardage but think what that yardage would be if Dobbins got those kind of openings.
nice statistical analysis. What sources do you use to pull up all of these statistics and sort them out?
ohiostatebuckeyes.com and cfbstats.com
It seems way back when Myer first came on as the coach, that first year it seems he actually used a fullback in some formations. And then he ask the fullback to move to linebacker. Then he used a TE in the backfield for blocking. I can’t figure out with all the brain trust, (actually 3 head coaches on staff) why they can’t come up with an offensive scheme of using both Dobbins and Weber at the same time, even throw a fullback in there once in a while for blocking. What defenses wouldn’t have a problem figuring out who was going to run the ball or going out for a pass. Talk about setting up play action!
Well, I remember one game where our QB led the Buckeye team in rushing – vs Miami in January, 2003. Craig Krenzel had 81 yards to lead the team.
As for Zeke being too sick to carry the ball against MSU? I disagree. If he was sick, why was he in the game 20 or 30 other plays to block? Even block for Barrett? I’m not buying it.
Being OC must be tough, figuring out how you want to start the game. But we need to be able to make adjustments.
Good article, but statistics are tricky. Correlation doesn’t prove causation. Perhaps the stuggles in games we lost caused the higher number of runs, rather than the high number of QB runs causing the loss. Or perhaps a third event (like losing the battle at the line of scrimmage, or playing desperate) caused both the lower winning percetage and the increase in QB runs. Nevertheless, the correlation between QB runs and decreased winning percentage is strong. I agree with the conclusion that we need to give the ball to the tailback more.
The point is that, in this particular case, correlation does indeed prove causation. If you watched the games, it was patently obvious.
Having a QB who can throw an ACCURATE PASS is a powerful weapon too!!
Absolutely not surprising. Can you look at the linebacker play as well? Lack of at least one dynamic playmaker at the linebacker spot is also a major concern.
Tony, you have touched the nerve that drives Buckeye fans crazy! It is a disturbing trend that infuriates me to no end. OSU knows its identity on offense and needs to stick with it. Get balanced on the passing and rushing by feeding your RB with less zone read
One further comment. I feel sorry for J.K Dobbins, He had a shot at breaking every rookie running back record out there, his season has been taken way from him by the coaches.. I felt sorry of Zeke after Michigan State a few years ago. (Can you tell I was a running back.) You can’t help your team win the game if the coach doesn’t call your number.. what a waste of talent. Used to be Ohio State got the running backs, Michigan got the pro-style quarterbacks. It’s going to turn. Ohio State is getting the dual threat quarterbacks, and what running back in their right mind would come to Ohio State after how Zeke and Dobbins were used? As the quality of RBs falls off, kids want to play with someone who will use their talents, this program is going right down the tank.
Funny how the two National Championships this century were QB’d by probably the among the most “pro style” QBs in OSU history. Coincidence? I think not.
Watching OSU’s pedestrian like O the past two years, we all believed that if OSU would only be successful passing the ball than OSU’s O will by dynamic. Hence the need to throw the ball to be successful! Urban needs to remember that OSU needs the threat of being a balanced O. I believe the reason OSU’s O looked so bad is that OSU thought that we could just pass as effectively as we did in the 4th against PSU. IA knew that, and when we didn’t make them respect the run, and JTB thought that his passes would magically end up in receivers arms we paid the price. In all of JTB’s pics, our receivers were at least in double coverage if not in triple coverage, seemed like the running game would slow that down. When we tied the game 17-17, our O ripped apart IA and it almost looked to easy. But that huge TD pass was set up by a successful rushing attack. We abandoned that in the 2nd half. Hopefully Urban and Wilson return to a balanced O or at least the fear of it.
That’s an interesting take, and one I didn’t think of. You must have had your thinking cap on. Good story.
Its easy to see in the situation involving the zone read option. Defenses are keying on the RB and making Barrett carry the ball. On first down they are also crashing to take it all away. This does two things. It takes the ball out of Dobbins hands, as you mentioned, and it puts the offense behind schedule by basically giving the defense a free down. They need more designed runs for the RBs. The QB is getting beat up running the ball.
Not so worried about the offense. I want to know how the defense gave up 50+ to an offense ranked in the bottom of the league.
four interceptions is a start on the 50+ points.
Any chance JT got his throwing arm hurt on that strip late in the first half? He wasn’t the same after that and threw 3 picks.
He threw a horrible pick to begin the game with. My premise for this entire game is that OSU did not show up, they just expected a win then play tough for the MSU game.
Very interesting article and I wonder if there are other consistent, similar factors in these games as well…and as others have pointed out, the defense was horrific against Iowa..and of course the offense kept putting the defense in bad spots back on the field….I really hope the coaching staff DOES something about all this , esp the RB situation, and in-game adjustments on both sides of the ball, vs MSU. If so, OSU will see positive results because this team SHOULD win out iof so. We will find out Saturday at high noon.
We’ve too predictable in key situations with respect to the QB keeper. Opposing teams have figured it out. Nothing stands out in my mind more than msu in 2015 and zeke getting 3 carries in the second half and 12 for the game. Best RB in the country getting almost nothing in a key game. MSU again in the 2013 title game. 4th and 1 late in the game. Key situation and miller gets the call on a QB keeper that gets stuffed. Game over. This was especially frustrating because Hyde was averaging 7 per carry that game and it was like the msu defense knew miller was going to run the ball. Get ready for more of the same Saturday. MSU will load it up to force us to pass to beat them and key on the QB run. JT better have a game like psu throwing the ball or I’m afraid we’re going to be in trouble. Beat sparty and Illinois and we are east champs heading to Indy. Lets get it done buckeyes!!!!
Elliot spent most of that proceeding week in the hospital with an infection. He did not get many carries because he wasn’t fully healthy. Meyer explained this in the post game interview. It wasn’t by design. It was for the guys health.
MSU stuffed EE in that game, you could have handed him the ball 75 times and he wouldn’t have gotten 100 yards, OSU’s passing game was horrific that year. Agree with you about The B1G title game in ’13.
Overall I agree but either way they still have two losses this year. Iowa made play after play after play and whooped our butts. There have been many Buckeye teams that always gave us a chance to win because of the DEFENSE! When you give up big play after big play, everything goes out the window and all hell breaks loose.
Good point Jim, let me add another. I guarantee when the OSU brain trust prepared for this game they did not start with the premise that Iowa would have 500 BALANCED yds of offense and zero turnovers. Nothing makes game plans go out the window like adversity.