Five Predictions: Ohio State at Michigan

Right before the Master Level teachings of my prediction arts, my sensei confronted me with questions meant to trigger introspective thought and then eventual total enlightenment.

“What is the sound of one hand clapping?”

“If a tree falls in the forest and there is no one there to hear it, does it make a sound?”

“Does a lifetime contract for Jim Harbaugh benefit Ohio State more than Michigan?”

Total enlightenment never really worked for me because along with being a Master of the prediction arts, my sensei also taught the clarinet and he ran the classes simultaneously, so it was impossible for me to find the kind of enlightenment he was teaching in the same room as terrible clarinetting.

But if you’re ever on Morse Road and want to either take clarinet lessons or learn how to predict sports things, check out Captain Gary’s Clarinets. I don’t actually know if he teaches anybody else how to predict things, or if I just ended up at the right place at the right time when I was shopping for clarinets a couple of decades ago.

Anyway, all of those thousands of hours will no doubt be put to the test this week in a game that features a gigantic quarterback question.

I’ll get to tallying up the predictions for the Big Ten Championship Game, but that doesn’t matter this week.

This is Michigan Week.

There is nothing else like it.

And you can celebrate it with 15% off of used clarinets at Captain Gary’s on Morse! Right next to the Army surplus store and that place that used to be open 20 years ago but is no longer open now for some reason.

1. J.T. Barrett, Mike Weber, and J.K. Dobbins will combine for at least 222 yards rushing.

The most yards rushing that Michigan has allowed this season is 224 yards and it came at Penn State. Part of the reason for the Nittany Lions’ success was due to quarterback Trace McSorley’s mobility. He rushed for 76 yards and moved the chains repeatedly. If the Buckeyes can get 70 yards from J.T. Barrett in the course of the offense, then OSU should not have much issue getting to the 222-yard mark. The reason I chose 222 yards is because that’s what Chris Wells rushed for against UM in 2007. Mike Weber may be the hottest tailback in the conference right now, and J.K. Dobbins just might be the best. The Badgers wore Michigan down last week, and they didn’t need tempo to do it. On Saturday, the Buckeyes will have depth, a mobile quarterback, and plenty of tempo to tire out this Michigan defense.

2. The OSU H-backs will have at least eight touches.

I expect Parris Campbell to have at least one carry in this game, so that will be one of the touches. I also think the mesh routes will work well, provided the OSU pass blocking gives J.T. Barrett time. That won’t be easy with Michigan’s blitzing. But if those blitzes are picked up, there are going to vacated spots in the intermediate areas, which is where the Buckeye H-backs can be found. I also think there will be at least one deep shot to either Campbell or K.J. Hill, and Michigan’s non-cornerbacks can be attacked successfully. Quick rollouts will also be in play with the slots.

3. Donovan Peoples-Jones will have a touch of at least 30 yards.

Michigan will have some big plays in this game simply because it’s The Game. Donovan Peoples-Jones is only a freshman, but he is Michigan’s most explosive receiver. He will get the ball via screens and end arounds out of the slot, but is also being used out wide more now. I could see a downfield connection against a safety or one of those situations where they use OSU’s aggression against them on a reverse of some sort. DPJ is also the team’s punt returner, so that will be an area to watch. Ohio State has only given up one punt return this season, and that was last week and went for a single yard.

4. Tuf Borland will have at least 10 tackles.

Michigan is going to pound the ball. That’s basically all they know. They will play two and three tight ends throughout. This game is made for Tuf Borland at middle linebacker. Borland had 11 tackles against Michigan State, but just one tackle against Illinois. The starters didn’t play too much last week, and the Illini offense isn’t exactly conducive to a middle linebacker piling up big numbers. That will change this week.

5. The Buckeyes will have at least two receptions of 33 yards or more.

I have said all season long that Michigan’s defense can give up big plays, and no Big Ten teams have given up more 50-yard gains that Michigan this season (6). They have given up 19 plays of 30 yards or more, which is only bested (worsted?) by Nebraska, Northwestern, and Rutgers. Whether Michigan combats OSU with a nickel back or a safety over the slot, the Buckeyes will have the advantage in that matchup throughout the game. And then there is still Binjimen Victor, Johnnie Dixon, and Terry McLaurin to deal with. Oh, and don’t forget about Saquon Barkley’s effectiveness in the passing game against linebacker Mike McCray. We could see that happen again this week with either Mike Weber or J.K. Dobbins.