Heading into Saturday’s regular season finale, Ohio State’s path to the playoff was clear. The Buckeyes needed to beat Michigan and Wisconsin, and Oklahoma, Clemson, and Alabama had to win their last two games as well. If that all happened, there was no realistic way OSU was going to get left out.
The Buckeyes took care of business, beating the Wolverines. The Sooners and Tigers cruised to easy wins. And then the Crimson Tide rolled into Auburn and got their faces kicked in by their archrival. So much for a clear path.
There has been a rush by many to proclaim the Buckeyes’ playoff chances either totally alive or totally dead, even if they win the Big Ten title on Saturday in Indianapolis. In reality, there’s no way to really know what’s going to happen because there’s no precedent for this in the previous three years of the playoff field.
No two-loss team has ever made the playoff field before. No conference has ever gotten two teams into the field before. No team has ever gotten curb-stomped by an opponent as middling as Iowa and ended up the top 4. No team has ever lost its last game and made it, either. Alabama has never been left out of the field. The Big Ten has never been left out, either.
If the Buckeyes beat Wisconsin and the decision comes down to Alabama or Ohio State, three of those six facts will no longer be true. But anyone who says they definitively know which ones they are is lying.
When this weekend’s playoff rankings are released, Auburn, Clemson, and Oklahoma will be among the top three. That much is almost certain. Alabama, Wisconsin, Georgia, Miami, and Ohio State will very likely be ranked from #4 to #8 in some order.
Even if the Buckeyes are only #8, it’s not a total disaster. They would need to jump four teams to finish in the top 4. Assuming OSU wins on Saturday, three of the teams ahead of them are guaranteed to lose (Wisconsin, either Clemson or Miami, and either Auburn or Georgia). The Bucks would then have an additional top-10 win on their resume and a conference championship to potentially vault them over the fourth team the would need to jump. That team is Alabama, whose resume is now final and not impressive.
The Tide’s best wins all season were against 9-3 LSU, who ranked #18 in last week’s Playoff Committee top-25, and 8-4 Mississippi State, who will fall from #14 after getting crushed by Ole Miss. They did not win the SEC West and won’t be SEC champions.
Saturday night after the Iron Bowl ended, many people compared 2017 Alabama to 2016’s conference title-less but Playoff-bound Ohio State team. But those Buckeyes had wins over three top-10 opponents. This year’s Tide have none.
Their case is much closer to the 2015 Ohio State team that lost a late game against #3 Michigan State, had #14 Michigan as its best win, missed the Big Ten title game and then got left out of the Playoff.
With a win this weekend, the 2017 Ohio State team could claim three wins more impressive than anything this year’s Tide can, having beaten #5 Wisconsin, #10 Penn State, and #16 Michigan State. They would have a conference championship.
But they would also have a 31-point loss to a 7-5 Iowa team, and the faint, but lingering odor from last year’s Playoff no-show against Clemson.
If the committee judges the teams based on who has a more impressive group of wins, the Buckeyes are in easily. If they decide it based on who has the worse set of losses, Ohio State is clearly out. If they weigh a mixture of both, and also take the value of a conference title into account, then… maybe. Definitely, maybe.
The Playoff Committee doesn’t take game attendance or TV ratings into account at all in their selections (*winks*). But if they did… and this is strictly hypothetical, of course… OSU’s massive fanbase would be a huge asset against just about any other competitor. But Alabama’s fans are just as insa… enthusiastic as the Buckeyes’ are, so that’s probably a wash as well.
You’ll probably get a pretty good idea what the committee intends to do on Selection Sunday by what they do with Mississippi State and LSU this week. If they hide behind the excuse that Nick Fitzgerald got hurt to prop up the cowbell-ringing corpse of the Bulldogs, that’s a solid indication that they’re setting the stage to put Alabama in. If they jump LSU over Michigan State, that would also be a telling sign that they have their shining cloth out for the Tide’s turd of a resume.
Ohio State still has to take care of business on Saturday against a very strong Wisconsin team in order for any of this to matter. But if they do, make plans to spend a nervous Sunday morning waiting on the couch.
Right now, everyone knows that the Playoff Committee will make history this year. We just don’t know how.
And yes, I’m sure more than just me got the “Magic 8-Ball” reference, Tom. Reader response here is amusing and all over the map. Still more football to be played. On paper Wisky plays right to our strengths with the sole exception of Fumigelli (sp?) but one TE usually isn’t enough. Someone else will have to step up and that USUALLY isn’t the RBs for Wisky.
Not THAT much more football, Andrew. The real focus is on the football that’s already been played. The results have been very telling, and its not an optimistic look for OSU (see Norman Head’s first message below for a lucid outlook). I love OSU football as much as anyone you’ll ever meet, and even I can’t keep a straight face while making an argument they belong in the playoff this year- that’s the kind of crap Ped State fans do.
The Bucks are a good football team but we are NOT national championship contenders. Our two lopsided losses are impossible to overlook and I would hate to see a redo of our embarrassing blowout by Clemson. However, the importance of emotion can’t be overlooked and we’ll need to click on all eight to win this Saturday.
The problem is, there is no scenario where Ohio State gets in. They have no big out of conference win. They have two loses and they were both ugly loses where they were badly outplayed and were never really in the game. No one wants to see a team that lost 31-0 the year before and got blown out twice this year go out and have another stinker. That is what is going to keep them out. Not just the two losses, but the way they lost. The team is good enough to win the play-off if they show up. It’s just the odds of them actually showing up are lower than other top teams, and what happens when they don’t show up is really ugly. But hey, that’s Urban Meyer football. Counting the Clemson game last year, and Oklahoma this year, their only decent win is Penn State, which they barely won. That is not the mark of a Championship team.
I just don’t see how the committee can overlook how bad those loses were, and how shaky the win over Penn State was.
They could have survived Oklahoma, in my mind they won’t survive Iowa. Iowa proved you don’t even have to be that good a team to beat them. As soon s they get a bit behind the coaching staff freak out and start calling all kinds of crazy stuff. They have no confidence in the teams ability to win without tricks and gimmicks and lot of East/West insanity. If their own coaching staff believe that, why would the committee think different?
Hey guys, I don’t know where to put this and I don’t how many follow the CFL, but last night in the Grey Cup DeVier Posey was the game’s outstanding player caught seven passes for 175 yards; SO, he get’s a ring, paling with a team that was bankrupt at the start of the season and didn’t even have a coach or general manager until March. He is quoted in some of the Toronto papers for his post game comments. The whole team is basically cuts from other teams, they call themselves the team that nobody wanted. They won on two plays, Posey’s 100 yard touchdown reception, the longest in Grey Cup history, and a 109 yard fumble recovery returned for a touchdown. It’s along time since he played from us, but Ohio State was mentioned as his school several times during the game. It certainly never hurts to get the name out there.
If TCU beats Oklahoma, Auburn beats Georgia and Ohio State beats Wisconsin, then there could be three 2-loss teams with a legit argument. Which one should get in?
Brian, I am trying to figure out who you would see in the playoff if OSU wins and Oklahoma loses to TCU and Auburn wins. Do you believe a 2 loss Oklahoma with no conference championship would get in and a 1 lose Alabama with 2 wins over FCS teams and no conference championship is in over a conference champ OSU with 3 wins over top 20 teams?
Honestly they should go to a 10 game season mostly conference games and then have a 16 team playoff. Most conference champions receive automated bids and then at large bids including teams like UCF. Use bowl games for playoff games but also have some games in the north. Think of the fun and these kids do not all need to be playing 13 games anyway.
I think right now all we need to think about is Wisconsin as if JT plays and no vertical game again we will be hard pressed to win.
The obvious solution is to expand the FBS College Football Playoff to 8 teams:
the conference champ from each for the Power 5 conferences, and 3 at-large teams. It only extends the season by one week. FCS has been doing 16 team playoff for years which allows for a true champion. FBS switch to 8 team playoff would give more meaning to a conference championship, allow direct comparison of conference vs conference strength, satisfy the fanbase AND make more money for the NCAA. Top four seeds could play the first (quarterfinal) game at home and the next games could remain bowl games as is.
I think it’s pretty simple. ACC champ is in. SEC champ is in. Big 12 champ is in. If Wisconsin wins, they’re in and that’s that. Easiest scenario for the committee. If Ohio State wins and Oklahoma loses then the committee takes Alabama over OSU. I think OSU gets in over ‘Bama if Oklahoma beats TCU…
The worse thing to happen to the team this year, was not only the Iowa game, but the fact the way they entered the playoff’s last season, and then getting blown out by Clemson. And conference championship means nothing as like last season, with Penn State. Thus Bucks won’t get in this season. Just get ready to watch them in another bowl game.
Some of the most clear-eyed commentary out there. Well-laid out, Tom! FWIW, should Auburn win there will be a 2-loss team in the playoff regardless of what is done with the Buckeyes.
Its VERY cloudy, Tom. I agree Alabama is overrated and will get undeserved attention despite the brutal reality of their frail schedule and unimpressive resume THIS year. Problem is our beloved Bucks may well be in that same category. When you lose by a gazillion points to a mediocre Iowa team, its hard to puff your chest out for playoff inclusion, even if a BIG title is on the resume.
What a mess.
OSU needs another blow out type win over Wisconsin like they did a couple years ago. Not necessarily a 59-0 win but something similar to convince those sitting on the fence. If that isnt enough then so be it. We should never have been destroyed by such a mediocre Iowa team that annually gets exposed and destroyed in bowl games.