When you become a professional predictor like me, you don’t really focus on the impact that you can have on people’s lives. All you’re thinking about is getting your predictions correct. When I make my five weekly predictions, I’m not thinking about the kid that I am inspiring who will go on to become a doctor or a congressman, and that’s probably my fault for living in such a pressure-packed bubble.
My focus isn’t on the lives I’m changing, because that’s too big for just one man. I love that I have this impact on so many people, but when I catch myself thinking about it, I have to remember that basking in the glow of admiration is how we get weak. It’s how we get lazy. I don’t ever want to be lazy.
Yes, I know that statement is in stark contrast to my keynote speech at the 2015 Sports Predictors of America Conference entitled, “Lazy Isn’t a Four-Letter Word,” but I have matured since then. And the lives that I have changed is proof of that.
I received a letter in the mail recently. In the letter, a reader asked me for my email address. I sent back a letter and included my email address. One week later, I received an email from that same person asking me if I was worried about people knowing my home address.
I wasn’t until right then.
Anyway, let’s see how I did last week against UNLV.
Prediction 1: Somebody other than J.K. Dobbins will have a rush of 20 yards.
Outcome: Failed it. Dwayne Haskins had a 16-yard rush, but he fell short of 20 yards by nearly five yards. I’m not going to whine and cry about Parris Campbell’s 69-yard catch-and-run touchdown and how the screen game is actually an extension of the running game. That’s not me. I’ll just take my loss here and move on and be the bigger person.
Prediction 2: A cornerback will have an interception.
Outcome: Nailed it. Damon Arnette intercepted a tipped pass.
Prediction 3: A freshman will have a sack.
Outcome: Nailed it. Isaiah Pryor had a sack on a safety blitz.
Prediction 4: Antonio Williams will rush for at least 45 yards.
Outcome: Nailed it. I called for a career rushing day from Antonio Williams and we…I mean he…got it. He rushed for 58 yards on 11 carries.
Prediction 5: There will be three receptions where a player picks up at least 20 yards after the catch.
Outcome: Failed it. Parris Campbell had one and so did Rashod Berry, but the closest I got to a third was 17 yards by K.J. Hill. I am disappointed, but not as disappointed as K.J. Hill is for disappointing me.
Season Total: 13 of 20 Correct
I would like to eventually get my percentage up around 100%, and the only way I can do that is by giving 110% from here on out. That starts with these next five predictions.
1. The Buckeyes will have at least two interceptions.
Rutgers quarterback Kyle Bolin has thrown six interceptions this season. He has been uniformly helpful, throwing two in each game against an FBS opponent. Ohio State had two interceptions against Indiana and UNLV, and zero against Army and Oklahoma. I feel pretty good about this one because the flex bone is not walking through that door, and neither is Baker Mayfield. If you want me to call my shot, I’ll go with Jordan Fuller and Damon Webb.
2. J.T. Barrett will complete a pass that travels at least 33 yards in the air.
I am foolishly going to assume that Chris Ash’s defense will play Chris Ash Defense and press the Buckeyes. If they do, then J.T. Barrett will have an opportunity to complete some passes downfield. He eventually has to hit something fairly deep, right? The last time I predicted something similar, I went with a 30-yard pass in the air. That was Oklahoma, and Barrett completed a pass to Austin Mack that went 31 yards in the air. If you’re asking me to call my shot, I’m going to go with Terry McLaurin for 34 yards.
3. Ohio State will hold Rutgers to under 200 yards of total offense.
Rutgers is averaging 328.6 yards of total offense per game, so me going with 199 yards or fewer in this one is a pretty gutsy pick. A deeper dive would show you that Nebraska held Rutgers to 194 yards of offense last week, but I would not recommend that deeper dive as it would make this prediction look less significant.
4. The Buckeyes will have their longest punt return of the season.
Remember when I told you not to take deeper dives? Well, definitely don’t take a deeper dive on this one. All I will tell you is that the Buckeyes will have their longest punt return of the season in this one. Ohio State should force plenty of punts, so I could see K.J. Hill having a 30 or 40-yarder. I would also love to see Kendall Sheffield finally get a look back there. Okay, if you must know, the longest punt return for the Buckeyes this season is just seven yards. But the fact that they have been so unproductive makes this a pretty ballsy call. By the way, I just looked and Rutgers has allowed eight punt returns this season for an average of 20 yards per return. If I miss this prediction, there will be a scathing open letter to Ohio State’s so-called punt returners next week.
5. Jerome Baker will have at least two tackles for loss.
It has been a slow season for Jerome Baker so far, but I think things will pick up for him on Saturday. He only has two tackles for loss this season, so me calling for him to double that number in just one game is nothing short of a bold prediction. Baker has had a TFL in each of the Buckeyes’ last two games, so he’s starting to fire. The more I dig into this one, the more I realize that this is a bad bet. Baker only had one game of two tackles for loss last season, and now I’m calling for him to match his career best. This feels like a Stupid Tony prediction to me.
Bonus: Rutgers will not return a punt.
Ohio State is one of just four teams who has yet to allow a punt return this season. Rutgers has one of the best returners in the nation in Janarion Grant, so punter Drue Chrisman is going to work hard to make sure he has enough hang time for his coverage to arrive with the football.
Bonus: J.K. Dobbins will rush for fewer than 85 yards.
With Mike Weber returning and Rutgers not exactly being a pushover defensively, things might be a little slow-going for J.K. Dobbins this week. Plus, I wasn’t overly impressed with the push that the Buckeyes got against UNLV last week on the interior.
Bonus: Parris Campbell will score.
At this point, I could say this every week and feel pretty good about it. Campbell can score in any number of ways, and do it from anywhere on the field.
No matter that he breaks 10k career yards and has a great game doing it, the boo birds will castigate J.T. Barrett for his performance.
Not even I will have a reason to get on Barrett after this game. BooBird, WhoBird, OR ShoeBird are in the cellar until he has to play a defense because, until that happens Coach Meyer and his yes man Mr. Wilson are in no better than experimental phase. Not even I can blame an unpredictable player because the staff is running around like a chicken with its head cut off. No identity means experimentation. Experimentation means not being able to predict just what the staff wants to work on. I “think” they think they have the running game pretty much figured out so, do they once again abandon it and try to get JT somewhat consistent passing between the 10 – 25 yard range? Or do they try to get Weber in game shape by feeding him brick wall run after brick wall run?
I think they’ll try both! Rutgers is the one pass defense before the bye week where JT can get that intermediate passing get in reasonable shape. How successful he is will determine how much work on getting Weber into football shape, which they know they’re going to need when the competition gets better.
BUT. If JT can’t complete 50% of his throws between 20 – 25 yards (intermediate) range, you can expect me to still be grumpy this time next week!
(between 10 – 25 yards…….sorry Andrew!)