Football

More of the Same on Offense and Defense — By the Numbers: Minnesota at Ohio State

Tuf Borland Ohio State Football Buckeyes

[Editor’s note: NEWBrutus is a long-time poster on our forum who has contributed statistical breakdowns for us in the past. Up today is a look back at what went right, wrong, and indifferent against Minnesota.]


Jim Tressel used to say things are never as good or as bad as they look. They are usually somewhere in between. In many respects, the same can be said for Ohio State’s efforts on both sides of the ball against Minnesota.

Explosive Woes Continue

Each team had 10 possessions in this game and Minnesota was able to continually gain chunks of yardage at a time. These chunk plays, which go for 15 yards or more, were prevalent on 70% of the Gopher possessions. This was the highest number for any team facing the Buckeyes so far this year. That is the bad, and frankly it is very concerning.

On those 7 drives, the Gophers were able to score two TDs and miss two field goals. Their other three drives resulted in no scoring attempts.

Drives without Explosive PaysDrives with Explosive Plays
Opp.DrivesTDsFGMFGA Pts. DrivesTDs FGM FGA PTs 
Or. St.90123540028 
Rutgers10000020113 
TCU70000740128 
Tulane5000041006 
PSU90113831223 
Indiana90010532226 
Minn.30000720214 
Grand Total520246381748128 

Some other things about the explosive plays:

  • Minnesota ran 56 plays, 9 of which (16.1%) went for 15 yards or more. This is the highest percentage allowed this season.
  • Minnesota gained 220 of their 388 yards on those 9 plays. The 56.7% of yards gained on the explosive plays is the second lowest by an Ohio State opponent this year (Rutgers had 22.6%).
  • The 388 yards gained by the gophers is the second lowest total of the season (Rutgers gained 133).
  • 56 Plays were the fewest run by an Ohio State opponent this year.

An Ugly Offensive Day

While there is a lot of concern about the Ohio State defense, they are not the reason this game was as ugly as it was.

OffenseDrivesAvg StartTDs FGA FGMOff. Pts Pts/Dr Dr Eff.Sc. Chance SC Eff. Pts/SC
Ohio State1076.5333303.00.4296.5483.83
Minnesota1077.2220141.40.2005.4002.80

The Ohio State defense limited the damage. The 1.4 points per possession is below our season average, the .200 drive efficiency is also below our season average.

But there is more to the story.

PlaysYards YPPSuccess Rate
Ohio St.765046.63.342
PASS473938.36.426
RUN291113.83.207
Minnesota563886.93.357
PASS252018.04.440
RUN311876.03.290

(Please note, sacks are included in the passing totals, not the rushing totals)

Although Minnesota’s yards per play was the most allowed so far in 2018, their success rate was not a reason for alarm.

In some respects The Ohio State offense significantly underperformed on Saturday. The running game was abysmal (and that is probably being nice). A 20.7% success rate is even more alarming than the 3.83 yards per carry (adjusted for sacks). The 42.6% success rate when throwing the ball for 400 yards is also poor. The defense did a reasonable job of limiting the Gophers’ success, but Ohio State’s offense performed worse.

We had six scoring chances (a scoring chance is defined as a possession with a first down inside your opponent’s 40-yard line), kicked three field goals and turned the ball over on downs once.  Prior to Saturday we had a scoring chance efficiency of .773 and were scoring 5.41 points for each opportunity. On Saturday we had a scoring chance efficiency of .548 and only scored 3.83 points for each time.

Minnesota’s defense came into the game with a top 25 defense, so they deserve some credit for the lack of success. However, the problems with the running game stick out like a sore thumb.

A deeper look at the running game

Adjusting for sacks, the Buckeyes ran the ball 29 times for 111 yards. That is 3.83 yards per attempt. This is as bad as it looks. Quite frankly, the last three games have been awful by Ohio State’s standards.

GameAttYdsYPA Succ Rate Stuff Stuff RateXPLXPL Yds Neg Plays
Or. State533757.08.6426.11361572
Rutgers382346.16.55310.26341153
TCU411834.46.51219.4633528
Tulane351624.63.4868.2292342
Penn State361213.36.36114.3891188
Indiana471623.45.46819.4041214
Minnesota291113.83.20710.345004
Grand Total27913484.83.48086.3081739731

In the last three games we have faced decent defenses. The results are concerning. The first thing which sticks out is a lack of explosive plays in the running game. In the past three weeks the Buckeyes have had 2 running plays gain more than 15 yards. Without those, the rushing numbers will not look impressive.

Equally concerning is the stuff rate. A “stuff” is a carry which goes for one or fewer yards. While the stuff rate against Minnesota wasn’t as bad as it was against Indiana or Penn State, it is still concerning.

The most alarming thing, which was mentioned earlier, is the poor success rate running the football. Even against Indiana we had some success running the ball, we just didn’t have the big gainers to improve the average. Against Minnesota, we struggled to have any success.

Whether it is blocking, scheme, facing loaded boxes, etc., there are glaring problems which need to be fixed before the weather becomes a major factor later in the fall.

If this game ended up 45 to 14, opinions and feelings are probably going to be much different. The defensive effort wasn’t nearly as bad as it looked live. (It wasn’t great either.) But we made plays (three turnovers) and Minnesota shot themselves in the foot once or twice too. After the Gophers’ two scoring drives early in the game, they were kept off the scoreboard, and we further limited their success.

The struggles on offense, even with another 400-yard passing day, made it look a lot worse than it was. The offense should have scored 45 points, but they didn’t. And despite video game like numbers from Haskins, there were issues with finishing drives. The lack of success running the football amplifies this even more.

Who is Getting the Ball

One of the more impressive things about Dwayne Haskins is how well he distributes the ball to multiple targets. The tight ends were involved more this week than they had been in prior weeks. And what can you say about KJ Hill?

 ChancesPct of Chances Yards Pct of Yds YPP
H2127.63%24348.21%11.57
  14 – Hill1013.16%18737.10%18.70
  21 – Campbell1114.47%5611.11%5.09
QB911.84%61.19%0.67
  7 – Haskins911.84%61.19%0.67
RB2735.53%9318.45%3.44
  2 – Dobbins1317.11%407.94%3.08
  25 – Weber1418.42%5310.52%3.79
TE45.26%5711.31%14.25
  13 – Berry22.63%203.97%10.00
  89 – Farrell22.63%377.34%18.50
WR1519.74%10520.83%7.00
  1 – Dixon33.95%81.59%2.67
  9 – Victor11.32%00.00%0.00
  11 – Mack56.58%285.56%5.60
  80 – Saunders33.95%142.78%4.67
  83 – McLaurin33.95%5510.91%18.33
Grand Total76100.00%504100.00%6.63

(Chances are targets plus carries)

For the season, the numbers look like this:

ChancesPct of Chances Yards Pct of Yds YPP
H11620.71%119930.76%10.34
14 – Hill478.39%54814.06%11.66
21 – Campbell5910.54%56814.57%9.63
26 – Gill10.18%110.28%11.00
30 – McCall91.61%721.85%8.00
QB488.57%1704.36%3.54
7 – Haskins305.36%491.26%1.63
18 – Martell183.21%1213.10%6.72
RB25144.82%129433.20%5.16
2 – Dobbins12622.50%62816.11%4.98
6 – Snead111.96%370.95%3.36
25 – Weber9717.32%52313.42%5.39
33 – Teague173.04%1062.72%6.24
TE142.50%1082.77%7.71
13 – Berry71.25%260.67%3.71
88 – Ruckert20.36%130.33%6.50
89 – Farrell50.89%691.77%13.80
WR11420.36%115229.55%10.11
1 – Dixon203.57%2265.80%11.30
9 – Victor152.68%1694.34%11.27
11 – Mack407.14%3077.88%7.68
15 – Harris30.54%220.56%7.33
19 – Olave20.36%190.49%9.50
80 – Saunders122.14%641.64%5.33
82 – Prater10.18%130.33%13.00
83 – McLaurin213.75%3328.52%15.81
TEAM173.04%-25-0.64%-1.47
Grand Total560100.00%3898100.00%6.96

The good news is the Buckeyes are 7-0 with a good chance to be 8-0 before they have a weekend off. The open date comes at a good time this year to help players get healthy again.

14 Responses

  1. I went over to Cleveland.com for some clarity. Turns out that OSU has made a first down on fourth and short 69% of the time this year. Last year, for the season, we made fourth and short 68% of the time. That was with the running quarterback. The last time the team did better than that (78%) was in 2012. Other stats show that short yardage success for the Bucks this year is better than Alabama, or anyone else in the top 10 except LSU. There was a discussion that OSU had traditionally run on short yardage plays because we have traditionally had running QBs. This year we have a passing QB. Its time to throw on short yardage plays, like the do in the pros.

  2. Over/under on Purdue punts?
    First half 1
    Second half 3

  3. With respect to some of our running game issues why do we continue to run everything out of the zone read look? Its very obvious that haskins isnt going to pull the ball and run it so this look is totally ineffective with regards to influencing the defense. This is especially troublesome if our blocking scheme is still reflecting a zone read scheme and we’re leaving a defender unblocked who will simply attack the RB because the defender knows the RB is getting the ball. After JT got hurt in 2014 we pretty much scrapped the zone read with Cardale and went to straight handoffs with zeke which as I recall worked pretty well.

    1. I personally don’t care what any other program is doing, how they’re winning, or losing, who their superstars are and their not so super stars are. Couldn’t care less. My perspective is solely reliant on the Buckeyes and THEIR performances. Number 1, 3, 4, 5 simply aren’t on Ohio State’s schedule at this point, and that’s a bridge to cross if and when this Buckeye team gets there. That means I’m left to look at the opponents who are on the schedule stack up, who they have, and what they represent in their game against the Buckeyes. Most importantly, how the Buckeyes perform against them. The Buckeyes have filled up the scoreboard pretty much against bottom of the barrell tuna cans. TCU “might” be the only exception to that, but the reality is that literal pimples and junk bottom trollers of offense (see Minnesota) shove this defense ALL over the field at will. That’s a serious problem, and from the sounds of the Head Ball Coach………….he thinks it’s okay. The offense is fantastic…..in the passing game, but, has stunk up College Football every game since TCU. That is an equal problem to that crappy defense the Buckeyes are throwing out there.

      Maybe Alabama stinks it up the same way, but I’ve only watched 2 of their games and they smashed those 2 opponents and left exactly NO doubt about what they represent on the football field. Will Greer at WVU would turn the Buckeye defense into the biggest laugh of the 2018 season, and I personally don’t think he’s as good as Blough from Purdue. Stupid level lack of discipline is the ONLY reason Purdue isn’t sitting at, at least 5 – 1 right now. Chances are also high that had they checked dumbassery at the gate on opening day they would be setting at 6 – 0. To the credit of their staff, they appear to have exorcised those demons. The Buckeyes demons are still deep inside and they are obviously restricting this teams growth.

      Nope, I’m evaluating the Buckeyes, and they don’t resemble any title contender I’ve ever seen. The talent is there to BE title contenders, but the flaws simply aren’t getting addressed. It’s probably a good thing I’m not on the POC and ranking them. They’d be ranked number 6 without having seen the others play a real opponent.

    2. Totally agree. They will probably say it is RPO which is fine but what happens when obvious run.

  4. Wow, just wow, at all the critizism Coach Meyer and this team is getting. According to Coaching & AP Polls the team is the 2nd best in the Nation!, and yet all we’re hearing about is how horribly they are playing. Also, the team has a ton of injuries on defense and offense, yet the Buckeyes are 7-0. Now granted problems exist, as is the case with all the other teams trying to get to the top 4, but I would rather have Coach Meyer, Day, Schiano, et al, to figure what needs to be done to ensure this team, as they get healthier, is in the playoffs. Biggest need to make it is Nick Bosa, and the starters of D getting well. if not, then that is a “horse of a different color.”

    1. Do you honestly feel that we deserve to be the second best team in the country? I can see a few 1 loss teams beating us right now. You don’t have to look perfect when you win, but the way the buckeyes played the last two games can’t make people feel good if you have been following this team and saw what other teams did this weekend who we have to play over the next few weeks.

    2. Yes, they are 2nd in the nation, but do they really look like it? Be honest, this team has the look of a #12 team. How high were we ranked when Clemson wiped their butt with us and flushed us down the crapper? How good we are ranked doesn’t translate into how good this team really is. They have a month to fix a lot of issues or plan on losing in The Game.

  5. Yep somewhere in the middle. The element of player development is a measurable, so either Minnesota with its roster of Junior College level talent is developed at a FAR higher rate than Urban Meyers 4 and 5 star recruits, or coaching has reached a critical mass implosion.

    The middle ground in that is Minnesota IS being better taught position by position, and Urban is dodging the truth about HIS staffs utter inability to teach.

    That Urban is still passing out participation trophies to guys who haven’t earned a damned thing states loud and clear that he’s too blinded by loyalty to demand change or take corrective action. If Urban has a flaw in his ability since coming to Columbus, it’s his adamant refusal to step in and force change. It’s obvious that he is interfering with offensive play calling with the notion that Dwayne can operate an RPO and be effective, and judging by his press comments, actually believes the halfwits he has informing him about what is supposed to be HIS defense. Dwayne is a great passer, but face the truth Urban, Dwayne cannot run the football, so stop sending in waste level plays that only serve to stunt offensive performance. Those idiot level jet sweeps are just as much drive killers as the clown show offensive line being completely incapable of blocking.

    This team goes to wide RPO run plays because they know the offensive line blows chunks, and yet we hear about the defense packing the box, but, the opponents defense still has, somehow, enough players to swarm and choke slam wide RPO’s? It’s pretty easy to see Mike Weber, a downhill North and South vertical rusher being upset when they force him to run horizontal wide east and west RPO’s with an offensive line that couldn’t sustain a block if their lives depended on it.

    There are metrics and visual. It’s become crystal clear that Urban has vision problems.

    1. Very well said, James! I agree with everything you said. I wish Urban would read this. It’s his job to step in and do something and stop listening to his incapable coaches. I can’t see Nick Saban doing nothing about his floundering team and pretending that things are on track.

      1. Thanks man. I have heard people already saying that the Buckeyes have moved up to number 2. They refuse to look at the games, instead relying on Coach Speak to tell them what to think. WE’RE NUMBER 2………exactly by default. It’s the same stuff that leads to let down weeks against teams that shouldn’t be able to stay on the field against the Buckeyes.

        If Nick Saban has an issue with ANY position group he doesn’t hesitate to address it immediately. 1 week could be a fluke, but when it occurs at a regular clip………Saban deals with it and couldn’t care less if he offends a player or a staff member. They were hired and recruited to do their job. Do it or bye bye!

        1. EXACTLY…nothing more to add…..thanks James

        2. Mr. Mills:
          Objectivity at last

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