Not sure about you, but I’m still so excited from that TCU win this past weekend that I can hardly see straight.
Well, it could be that, or that I’m delirious from a lack of sleep since our baby boy was born last Thursday night. Nah, it’s probably the football win.
Regardless, as with most week’s stat projections, I hit on a few things in the OSU vs. TCU game, but swung and missed on others.
I had Bosa getting a strip sack, which he did, so that’s awesome. However, the result (a Davon Hamilton TD) was even better than I had projected.
I was just north of getting the carries for Weber and Dobbins (or J.K. Weber, as another writer refers to the tandem) on the nose, as they toted the ball 36 times to my projected 38.
Though he did it on two fewer catches than I anticipated, I had Campbell’s receiving stats within a yard, included his TD.
I had Dixon and McLaurin in the 30-yard range, and they finished with 39 and 29, respectively.
Although I was close on the aforementioned topics, I was off on several others. My apologies for not predicting the seemingly obvious pick six by Dre’Mont Jones. Not sure if I’ll ever live down that oversight.
On offense, I was shy on our pass attempts, putting me under on the overall passing yardage as well.
My most egregious error, however, was using the phrase, “the trusty hands of Austin Mack lead the way.” Mack obtained a wicked case of the yips after dropping a sure touchdown and was unable to shake them until late in the contest. In my opinion, this was a one-time thing and we’ll see the Austin Mack who made two excellent catches on the first drive from here on out.
September 22 – Ohio State vs. Tulane
Game Summary
I rarely feel sorry for a football team. For instances in which I do pity a team, it’s nearly always because of an injury or tragic event that occurred to the school or the team itself.
In this case, however, I feel sorry for Tulane. It’s not their fault they’re the fourth game on the Buckeyes’ schedule. It’s not their fault that everything hit the fan and a domestic violence firestorm and media circus eventually resulted in a three-game suspension for Urban Meyer. And yet, they’ll be the ones sharing the field with Ohio State when Urban returns to the sideline this Saturday. They will be the team that has to deal with whatever Meyer has bottled up over the past month and a half. It may be cliche but there is blood in the water… and yet it’s the Green Waves themselves that are in trouble.
Tulane hasn’t yielded more than 31 points in a game this season, despite dropping two of three to mediocre opponents. That ends on Saturday and I’d bet my mortgage on it. The loss of Nick Bosa will impact the defense, to a degree, but not enough to concern me that Tulane will be able to score enough to stay competitive. In fact, I think that it allows others (Cooper, Smith, Cornell, etc.) to shine and get more valuable experience as the Bucks prepare to head into the Big Ten.
The Buckeyes roll in this one and there’s never a doubt. The first drive ends in a quick TD, as do many that follow. Godspeed, Tulane. It’s not your fault, but this one gets ugly.
Quarterback Projections
The Dwayne Train is rolling and looks incredibly difficult to stop. After just three games, he’s amassed 769 yards, 7 TD passes, completed 69% of his passes and is looking for his first rushing touchd… oh, no… I’m sorry. Those were Troy Smith’s numbers after his first three games in his Heisman winning season (2006). What I meant to say is that Haskins has thrown for 890 yards, 11 TD passes, completed 72.5% of his throws and rushed for a score as well.
As I noted above, and will reiterate throughout, this game will be a rough one for the Green Wave. Despite being a week before another big test in Happy Valley, Urban comes out firing with Haskins in this one, hiding nothing from the playbook. The Buckeyes raise their passing average a bit, firing for over 350 yards and 4 TDs. Martell also has a couple of successful runs as the OSU QBs put forth another dominating performance in a blowout win.
Running Back Projections
Similar to the passing numbers, the Buckeyes cruise just past their normal rushing average, almost hitting the 300-yard mark in this one. Dobbins picks up where he left off, which is a scary thought, seeing as he left off with one of the most intimidating post-run staredowns I can recall.
J.K. pounds the Tulane defense, rushing past the 100-yard mark for second straight game. He also breaks a couple of 20-yard runs in this game, one of which lands him in the end zone. Not far behind, Mike Weber demoralizes the opponents, rushing for more than six yards per touch and another score. The youngsters get some PT in this matchup, with Master Teague reaching pay dirt for a second time this season.
Pass Catcher Projections
Parris Campbell leads the pack, putting up nearly 100 yards, including another highlight reel score. K.J. Hill, meanwhile, keeps a stranglehold on his leading receiver status, hauling in at least five passes on Saturday. Austin Mack redeems himself, snagging four balls and six points. Johnnie Dixon and Terry McLaurin round out the touchdown party, all finding themselves dancing in the end zone at some point.
For the rest of the Zone 6ers it’s a one-catch kind of day, with the love being spread out to Victor, McCall, Harris, Saunders and a pair of tight ends. Austin Mack is the only wide receiver to average less than ten yards per catch, as he rebuilds his confidence with some chain-moving catches in the short to intermediate game.
Defense/Kicking Projections
The best player in the nation, Nick Bosa, will be absent from the lineup this weekend, with the hope being that his groin injury will be healed and ready by Penn State on the 29th. Malik Harrison leads the team in tackles, with Jones, Fuller and Borland all hearing their names mentioned multiple times.
Jordan Fuller ball hawks a pass from Tulane’s Jonathan Banks and kindly returns it to the house early in this one.
Jonathon Cooper, perhaps angry that the quarterback spells his name with two As instead of two Os, breaks through the line and eventually falls on the fumble that he knocks loose. Damon Arnette also gets a chance to carry the turnover nut (still a work in progress), as he picks off Banks as well.
Breaking through for sacks in this one, along with Cooper, are Jones, Young, Smith and Landers.
Four touchdowns through the air, three more on the ground, and a cherry on top from the defense gives Sean Nuernberger another eight points on the year.
OSU, fired up by the return of Urban Meyer, comes out guns blazing and never lets Tulane have a thought of being competitive in this one.
Final Score Prediction
Ohio State 56 – Tulane 10
Congratulations Dad!!!
Thanks, Jerry!
AJ………do you REALLY believe that the Buckeye linebackers are going to more then double up their 3 game stats in 1 game?
22 tackles returns the Buckeyes to normal expectations from that unit. Miracles CAN happen. So we’ll see.
Really, truly believe it? Heck, I don’t know. Their production has declined each week but I’m optimistic they’ll bounce back against his level of competition. 22 may be a bit steep, but hopefully it’s in the ballpark. And selfishly I want Borland to have 20+ tackles each week!
I think 100% healthy Tuf Borland can hit that number. I spent an entire day specifically watching him last year and this year, and everything I could round up on Malik Harrison. Tuf, and don’t shoot me, just isn’t turning it loose yet like he did last year. Last year he was as good as a lot of the really terrific linebackers dating back to 1968 that I’ve watched countless hours of over the years. So I’m thinking the achilles injury is still nagging him. Last year he played Spielman ball, see ball get ball. He was efficient AND gap sound. Malik Harrison is far from slow, but he’s been out of position and seems to have misread plays that opened up because of it. His arrival to the play is missing it by a step or 2 more often than not. It’s NOT all on the linebackers, but even their position title, linebackers, tells primary responsibility.
Yeah, the other team has good players too, but watching the hand techniques being used is an eye opener compared to guys like Shazier, Laurinaitis, Hawk, Schlegel, Spielman. Tuf looked like that last year. It was rare seeing these guys grabbed and taken out of position. That’s what I believe I’m seeing. That makes them late to arrive. In the case of Pete Werner, it’s happening way too much. Before anyone comes along and complains, I picked Pete to earn a starting spot this year ahead of Baron AND Keandre’ Jones. I honestly believed that Justin Hilliard was the best option until Tuf returned “HEALTHY.” I hate to think that he (Tuf) felt it was necessary to rush back because of the trainwreck that unit has pretty much been so far.
ALL of the linebackers on this roster are far above average athletes and linebacker talent. So were the guys last year before Tuf was called on to fix a situation as bad as this years. But he was healthy and even if he misread plays he played Spielman ball IN SPITE of the scheme requirements.
I also doubt that they need to be told that they’re struggling, and maybe that is in their heads too. At some point the entire unit just needs to say screw it, go on the field and just have fun. If they do that they WILL see ball and get ball. Like Tuf did last year, and offenses won’t be gashing the heart of the Buckeye defense.
Obviously NO player wants to admit that they weren’t ready to be back. I don’t think Tuf has been anywhere near the health level he was last year. With linebackers the speed of their on field play tells the story.
Urban Meyer is back……..that means we are FINALLY going to see a healthy dose of power inside trap rushes. That’s where Mike Weber is at his best. It’s also where the offensive line gets to test their metal to see if they are properly tempering and quenching, as they get ready for Penn State. But I suspect the hot hand won’t keep the baton except through rotations, which is fine.
Mike Weber – 18 carries – 144 yards – 8 ypc – 2 TD’s
JK Dobbins – 14 carries – 125 yards – 8.9 ypc – 2 TD’s
Master Teague – 6 carries – 45 yards – 7.5 ypc – 0 TD’s
Brian Snead – 5 carries – 21 yards – 4.2 ypc – 0 TD’s
Dwayne Haskins – 5 carries – 18 yards – 3.6 ypc – 1 TD
Top 5 wideouts.
Terry McLaurin – 6 catches – 86 yards – 14.3 ypr – 2 TD’s
KJ Hill – 6 catches – 60 yards – 13.3 ypr – 0 TD
Austin Mack – 5 catches – 58 yards – 11.6 ypr – 0 TD’s
Benjamin Victor – 4 catches – 55 yards – 16.25 ypr – 1 TD
Parris Campbell – 3 catches – 54 yards – 1 TD’s
Mike Weber – 2 catches – 28 yards – 0
Defense gets 1 score.
Dwayne Passing
22 – 28 – 341 yards – 14.7 ypc – 4 TD’s – 0 INT’s
Tate Passing
7 – 10 – 84 yards – 1 (rushing) TD (Tate adds 1 rush for 18 yards rushing) (all receptions and yards come from the young guys getting some playing time and TE’s.
Buckeye rush stats
353 yards on 49 carries – 7.35 ypc – 6 TD’s
Passing
29 – 38 – 425 yards – 4 TD’s
Ohio State wins 77 – 0 logging 778 total yards of offense. The offense suffers zero sacks, but the Buckeye defense logs 5. Even with Ohio State’s 778 yards, the combined 2 team totals, they still don’t breach 1000 total yards of offense.
The Green Wave are in serious trouble in this game. One of Urban Meyers greatest assets is game day intensity and it will effect focus for the roster on both sides of the ball. It’s going to get ugly early and often and I expect 5 take-a-ways by the defense. Tulane is about the same as Oregon State from top to bottom, but it’s also a discouraged team against an offense that is morphing into one of the most lethal attacks in the Nation. The Buckeye defense has a TON to prove, and what better way to make themselves feel better than to devour a ball of cotton candy? This is a game where the back 4 and 5 will have an opportunity to feast. Watch for extended safety play from Shaun Wade, and he and Jordan Fuller deliver a brilliant game.
I entered a couple incorrect “per” numbers. Sorry, I meant to edit them correctly BUT..oh well. It doesn’t affect the bottom line numbers.
Obviously not a math major.
Congratulations on the baby boy!
Thank you!!
Blow this team out in the first half and rest the starters in the second half for penn state next week.