Success Rates — Comparing J.T. Barrett and Dwayne Haskins

Dwayne Haskins Ohio State Football Buckeyes

[Editor’s note: NEWBrutus is one of our long-time posters on the Legacy Forum who crunches numbers after every game and offers up various bits of data. This is one of those posts.]

Let’s start with success rate.

Successful plays are defined as a gain of 50% of the needed yards on first down, 70% of the needed yards on second and 100% of the needed yards on third or fourth down.

This is how things stacked up for the Ohio State Offense and Defense:

Ohio State Offense

DownPlaysSuccessful PlaysSuccess Rate
First Down422457.1%
Second Down271555.6%
Third Down11327.3%
Fourth Down4375.0%
Game Total844553.6

Ohio State Defense

DownPlaysSuccessful playsSuccess Rate
First Down281242.9%
Second Down20525.0%
Third Down13323.1%
Game Total612032.8%

It was a pretty good day for the Ohio State offense and defense, albeit against a fairly overmatched opponent.

Of note, J.T. Barrett only had two third down passing attempts in his limited time. Neither were successful as neither were completed. Haskins had four third down passing attempts, completing one and it converted to a first down.

Let’s look at the QBs
This was Haskins first extended action of the season, and he went against the same bad defense that Barrett faced. Let’s see how each fared.

Of Note, the Pass Efficiency x Success Rate is something I thought I would look at. Pass efficiency can be distorted by a couple of really big plays that go for touchdowns. It is equally important to generate continued success on a regular basis. So this is designed to consider both the pass efficiency metric along with the success rate of those passing plays.

J.T. Barrett

DownCompAttYardsComp Pct.TDIntPass Eff. RatingSuccess RatePass Eff * Succ Rate
First Down6984.66700145.07.44464.47
Second Down441181.00030595.301.00595.30
Third Down020.00000000
Fourth Down2271.00020459.401.00459.40
  Game Total1217209.70650270.92.588159.36

Dwayne Haskins

DownCompAttYardsComp Pct.TDIntPass Eff. RatingSuccess RatePass Eff * Succ Rate
First Down1013179.76920243.35.692168.48
Second Down3525.60000102.00.40040.80
Third Down1416.250018.60.2502.15
Fourth Down1181.0000167.20.0000.00
  Game Total1523228.65221168.49.52287.91

This was against similar levels of competition. It could probably be argued that Haskins faced lesser competition in the later stages of the game as UNLV likely used this as an opportunity to get some of their non-starters some work.

(This is not me making a case for one or the other, just sharing the numbers so you can judge for yourself).

Five Factors
Football outsiders did a study about the numbers which indicate a winning performance on the field. They include measures for explosiveness (Yards Per Play), efficiency (Success Rate and pct of available yards Gained), Average Starting Field Position, Finishing Drives (Points per scoring opportunity—a drive with a first down play inside the opponent 40 yard line), and Turnovers.

ExplosivenessEfficiencyField PositionFinishing DrivesTurnover Battle
TeamYards Per PlayPct. of Available YardsSuccess RateAverage Starting FPPoints Per Scoring Opportunities (Scoring Opportunities)Turnovers
Ohio State7.90.778.53660.94.10 (11)1
UNLV4.33.294.32877.62.3 (3)2

6 Responses

  1. JTB did not have a 37 point lead to work with…a lead like that had to ease a case of the heeby jeebies a young QB might have.

    1. Nobody said Haskins was gonna walk in and dominate and lead us to a NC this year. Nobody even said that he’d do better than Barrett. It is foolish tho to keep trying the same thing over and over again and wonder why we can’t beat top level opponents. It’s just time for change. If Haskins doesn’t cut it then try Burrow or Tate.

  2. You forgot to mention, Haskins played with the 2nd string offense. First half he play with the first team and score on a TD pass.

  3. Didn’t the Buckeyes have 3 turnovers last Saturday? Two fumbles lost and an interception?

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